Khan Tengri’s recent form shows a win followed by three losses, yet they have scored an average of 1.15 goals and conceded 1.54 against similarly ranked opponents. Turan Turkistan, after a defeat, has rebounded with three wins in a row, averaging 1.36 goals scored and 2.18 conceded on the road. The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected 3.2 goals and a most likely total of 3 goals at a 22 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.4 % chance. The favoured outcome is an away win, with probabilities of 28 % for a home win, 25 % for a draw, and 47 % for an away win. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 83.6 %. Each selection is presented with its exact probability, and no other outcome is assigned a win probability.
Results analysis
The win extends Khan Tengri’s recent form, but Turan Turkistan, coming off a defeat, seized the opportunity to finish the match with a 0-1 victory. The pre-match favourite was the model’s pick of an away win, with a 47 % probability, and the model was correct. The expected total of 3.2 goals was far from reality, as only one goal was scored. The model’s single suggested pick, Over 1.5, missed, with an 83.6 % probability. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the away win and left the predicted total well above the actual tally.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Khan Tengri win✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied 9.6% · @ 9.39
Edge
+18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
10.75
Dafabet
10.00
Superbet
9.60
Betfair
9.00
10Bet
7.60
Draw✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied 17.8% · @ 5.05
Edge
+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Dafabet
4.90
Marathonbet
4.85
Turan Turkistan win✓ Hit
46.5%
Avg Implied 72.6% · @ 1.24
Edge
-26.1%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.28
Dafabet
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Betfair
1.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Khan Tengri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
2.03
1.06
1.50
0.71
2.64
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
3.67
0.00
2.00
1.00
7.00
vs Similar (25)
0.92
1.88
1.15
1.54
0.67
2.25
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan Turkistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Turan Turkistan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
2.17
0.94
1.88
1.21
2.50
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
3.57
1.25
3.50
0.67
3.67
vs Similar (22)
1.05
1.77
0.73
1.36
1.36
2.18
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
83.6%
@ 1.08-2.1%
Under 1.5
16.4%
@ 6.50+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.08
Under
Betfair
6.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
61.5%
@ 1.39-4.1%
Under 2.5
38.5%
@ 2.66+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.39
Betfair
1.36
Under
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.59
Superbet
2.52
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.2%
@ 2.00-6.7%
Under 3.5
60.8%
@ 1.69+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.07
Betfair
2.00
Marathonbet
1.96
10Bet
1.95
Under
Marathonbet
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Superbet
1.65
10Bet
1.65
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.4%
@ 1.79+12.1%
No
36.6%
@ 1.89-12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.77
Betfair
1.75
No
Betfair
1.95
Marathonbet
1.87
Superbet
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%@ 8.90+6.0%
1-2
9.3%@ 7.30+2.7%
2-1
7.1%@ 20.33+4.8%
0-2
6.8%@ 6.40-0.7%
0-1 ✓
6.5%@ 8.00+0.5%
2-2
6.4%@ 14.67+3.1%
1-3
5.6%@ 8.20-0.3%
0-0
5.2%@ 18.00+2.5%
Khan Tengri goals ↓
Turan Turkistan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.2%
6.5%
6.8%
4.1%
1.8%
1
4.7%
11%
9.3%
5.6%
2.5%
2
3.9%
7.1%
6.4%
3.8%
1.7%
3
1.8%
3.3%
2.9%
1.8%
0.8%
4
0.6%
1.1%
1.0%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Khan Tengri goals (down), columns = Turan Turkistan goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Turan Turkistan
2.17
Akademiya Ontustik
2.17
Sport Academy Kairat
1.83
Ekibastuz
1.80
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.67
Taraz
1.50
Jaiyq
1.33
Yelimay Semey 2
1.00
Astana II
1.00
Arys
0.83
Aktobe Jas
0.67
Khan Tengri
0.67
Tobol 2
0.50
Khan Tengri is 1.50 points worse than Turan Turkistan in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 2.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.40
Sport Academy Kairat
2.67
Turan Turkistan
2.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.83
Ekibastuz
1.80
Tobol 2
1.67
Aktobe Jas
1.33
Jaiyq
1.17
Yelimay Semey 2
1.00
Taraz
0.83
Khan Tengri
0.83
Arys
0.83
Astana II
0.83
Khan Tengri is 1.17 goals worse than Turan Turkistan in terms of goals scored per game (0.83 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.40
Sport Academy Kairat
0.50
Taraz
0.83
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.00
Akademiya Ontustik
1.33
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.50
Ekibastuz
1.60
Yelimay Semey 2
1.67
Khan Tengri
1.67
Arys
1.83
Tobol 2
2.33
Astana II
2.50
Aktobe Jas
3.50
Khan Tengri is 0.67 goals worse than Turan Turkistan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Khan Tengri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.87
0.50
0.69
0.21
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.40
0.84
0.62
0.77
0.17
0.92
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan Turkistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Turan Turkistan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.03
0.44
0.69
0.64
1.43
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
2.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.77
0.45
0.27
0.82
1.27
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Khan Tengri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.17
0.56
0.81
0.50
1.57
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
2.67
0.00
1.50
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (25)
0.52
1.04
0.54
0.77
0.50
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan Turkistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Turan Turkistan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.13
0.50
1.19
0.57
1.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.57
0.75
1.50
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (22)
0.41
1.00
0.27
1.09
0.55
0.91
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.6%
1.08
Betfair
1.08
-
-
-
-
-2.1%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shakhter Karagandy
Akademiya Ontustik
Sport Academy Kairat
Kaspij Aktau 2
Ekibastuz
Taraz
Jaiyq
Yelimay Semey 2
Astana II
Arys
Aktobe Jas
Tobol 2