Pythia gives Kifisia a 39% win probability against Larisa in the Greece: Super League 1 on 2026-05-21, with 31% for the draw and 30% for Larisa. The model estimates around 2.3 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (14.5%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (98%), Over 21.5 fouls (94%), Over 2.5 cards (90%), Over 23.5 fouls (88%).
Results analysis
Kifisia finished 3-2 against Larisa (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 39% home win, 31% draw and 30% away win. Picks that landed: Over 19.5 fouls (98%), Under 11.5 corners (86%). Missed: Over 21.5 fouls (94%), Over 2.5 cards (90%), Over 23.5 fouls (88%), Under 3.5 (80%), Over 3.5 cards (79%), Over 25.5 fouls (78%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kifisia win✓ Hit
39.2%
Avg Implied 40.7% · @ 2.22
Edge
-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.0%
Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.13
Edge
+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Larisa win✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied 30.4% · @ 2.98
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kifisia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.30
1.00
1.29
0.62
1.31
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
2.57
1.00
3.50
0.20
2.20
vs Similar (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
0.91
0.91
1.00
0.92
0.80
0.90
Clean sheet %
33% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Larisa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Larisa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.53
0.88
1.31
0.71
1.79
vs Stronger (9)
0.89
1.00
1.25
1.00
0.60
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.81
1.88
0.78
1.56
0.86
2.29
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
1.40
0.67
1.00
0.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Kifisia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.8%
Under 1.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.9%
@ 2.08-4.7%
Under 2.5
60.1%
@ 1.67+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
19.7%
Under 3.5
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.3%
No
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.5%
1-0
11.3%
0-1
9.4%
2-1
8.1%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
6.9%
0-2
5.6%
Kifisia goals ↓
Larisa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.4%
5.6%
2.0%
0.5%
1
11%
15%
6.9%
2.4%
0.6%
2
7.8%
8.1%
4.3%
1.5%
0.4%
3
3.2%
3.4%
1.8%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kifisia goals (down), columns = Larisa goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AEK Athens FC
2.29
Olympiakos Piraeus
2.12
PAOK
2.06
Panathinaikos
1.71
Levadiakos
1.61
Aris Thessalonikis
1.44
Atromitos
1.29
OFI Crete
1.22
OFI
1.22
Kifisia
1.18
Volos NFC
1.03
Panetolikos
1.03
Asteras Tripolis
1.03
Larisa
0.79
Panserraikos
0.76
Kifisia is 0.39 points better than Larisa in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 0.79).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levadiakos
2.00
PAOK
1.88
AEK Athens FC
1.76
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.68
Panathinaikos
1.56
Atromitos
1.39
OFI Crete
1.34
OFI
1.34
Kifisia
1.18
Aris Thessalonikis
1.08
Volos NFC
1.03
Panetolikos
1.03
Asteras Tripolis
1.03
Larisa
0.92
Panserraikos
0.66
Kifisia is 0.26 goals better than Larisa in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 0.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.50
AEK Athens FC
0.62
PAOK
0.76
Panathinaikos
1.00
Aris Thessalonikis
1.06
Atromitos
1.18
Asteras Tripolis
1.39
Kifisia
1.42
Panetolikos
1.42
Levadiakos
1.50
Larisa
1.61
Volos NFC
1.67
OFI Crete
1.72
OFI
1.72
Panserraikos
2.03
Kifisia is 0.18 goals better than Larisa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Olympiakos Piraeus
60%
PAOK
60%
AEK Athens FC
57%
Levadiakos
56%
Atromitos
53%
Panathinaikos
53%
Aris Thessalonikis
51%
Kifisia
48%
Volos NFC
46%
Larisa
46%
Panetolikos
46%
OFI
45%
Asteras Tripolis
45%
Panserraikos
37%
Kifisia is 1.9 percentage points better than Larisa in terms of average possession (48% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kifisia
For 3.7 · Against 4.9 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.7 · Against 13.4 · Total 31.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Larisa
For 4.1 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 14.2 · Total 26.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kifisia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
7.9
10.4
4.9
4.6
5.1
32.6
32.9
32.3
vs Stronger (9)
10.0
8.0
12.0
6.6
7.2
6.0
34.1
37.0
31.2
vs Similar (4)
9.0
6.0
12.0
2.8
2.5
3.0
35.0
34.0
36.0
vs Weaker (37)
8.9
8.0
9.8
4.7
4.2
5.2
32.0
31.6
32.3
% over line
38%
22%
53%
66%
65%
67%
97%
94%
100%
% under line
62%
78%
47%
34%
35%
33%
3%
6%
0%
This opponent (Larisa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Larisa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
8.8
8.7
4.5
5.1
3.9
30.0
31.9
27.9
vs Stronger (15)
8.8
9.1
8.5
5.3
6.1
4.5
29.9
30.9
28.8
vs Similar (23)
9.1
9.2
8.9
4.3
4.8
3.8
29.4
32.2
26.7
vs Weaker (12)
7.7
7.0
8.3
3.8
4.3
3.3
31.8
33.7
30.0
% over line
43%
37%
50%
60%
72%
48%
86%
95%
78%
% under line
57%
63%
50%
40%
28%
52%
14%
5%
22%
This opponent (Kifisia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kifisia
9.7
Aris Thessalonikis
9.3
Asteras Tripolis
9.3
OFI
9.0
OFI Crete
9.0
Atromitos
8.8
AEK Athens FC
8.8
PAOK
8.8
Larisa
8.7
Volos NFC
8.7
Panserraikos
8.6
Panetolikos
8.6
Levadiakos
8.6
Olympiakos Piraeus
8.5
Panathinaikos
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Kifisia
6.6
Larisa
6.2
Panserraikos
5.9
Volos NFC
5.7
OFI
5.7
AEK Athens FC
5.6
OFI Crete
5.6
Asteras Tripolis
5.6
Levadiakos
5.5
Panetolikos
5.4
Panathinaikos
5.3
Aris Thessalonikis
5.2
Atromitos
4.9
PAOK
4.7
Olympiakos Piraeus
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Kifisia
32.5
Larisa
32.2
Atromitos
30.6
Levadiakos
30.4
Volos NFC
30.3
AEK Athens FC
29.6
OFI
28.8
OFI Crete
28.7
Panathinaikos
28.6
Aris Thessalonikis
28.3
Asteras Tripolis
27.6
Panserraikos
27.5
Panetolikos
27.0
Olympiakos Piraeus
25.4
PAOK
24.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
33.5%
Under 9.5
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
78.7%
Under 3.5
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
94.0%
Under 21.5
6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kifisia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.70
0.36
0.64
0.38
0.75
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
1.14
0.00
1.00
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
0.41
0.55
0.42
0.58
0.40
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Larisa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Larisa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.87
0.50
0.88
0.14
0.86
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
0.56
0.50
0.75
0.00
0.40
vs Similar (16)
0.44
1.06
0.56
1.00
0.29
1.14
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
0.80
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Kifisia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kifisia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kifisia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kifisia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larisa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larisa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larisa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kifisia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.60
0.64
0.64
0.25
0.56
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.43
1.00
2.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (22)
0.50
0.36
0.58
0.33
0.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
63% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Larisa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Larisa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.38
0.44
0.57
0.93
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
0.44
0.75
0.25
0.60
0.60
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.81
0.22
0.56
0.57
1.14
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.60
0.33
0.33
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Kifisia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kifisia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kifisia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kifisia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larisa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larisa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larisa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 25.5 fouls
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (28)
€134m
PAO (34)
€96m
PAN (31)
€89m
AAF (32)
€82m
AT (31)
€40m
KIF (41)
€20m
OC (30)
€17m
PAN (35)
€16m
LEV (31)
€15m
ATR (30)
€15m
VN (37)
€12m
LAR (35)
€12m
PAN (33)
€10m
Kifisia's squad is €8m more valuable than Larisa's (€20m vs €12m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAO (12)
€50m
PAN (12)
€44m
AAF (11)
€35m
OP (8)
€28m
AT (16)
€20m
KIF (18)
€11m
OC (11)
€8m
PAN (15)
€8m
ATR (13)
€6m
LEV (10)
€5m
VN (15)
€5m
LAR (14)
€5m
PAN (11)
€3m
Kifisia's attack is €6m more valuable than Larisa's (€11m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (6)
€48m
PAO (7)
€24m
PAN (8)
€23m
AAF (8)
€20m
AT (4)
€9m
ATR (5)
€4m
OC (6)
€4m
LEV (7)
€3m
PAN (6)
€3m
KIF (7)
€3m
PAN (7)
€3m
VN (5)
€2m
LAR (5)
€2m
Kifisia's midfield is €1m more valuable than Larisa's (€3m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (14)
€59m
AAF (13)
€26m
PAO (15)
€23m
PAN (11)
€22m
AT (11)
€10m
LEV (14)
€7m
KIF (16)
€6m
OC (13)
€6m
VN (17)
€5m
LAR (16)
€5m
PAN (14)
€5m
ATR (12)
€5m
PAN (15)
€5m
Kifisia and Larisa have a similar defence value (both €6m).
Greece: Super League 1 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 1 stats & trends →