Kilmarnock’s defensive record at home is solid, conceding only 0.67 goals per match, while Aberdeen’s away defence has been porous, allowing 1.8 goals. The model favours a home win, with a 34% chance, a draw 31%, and an away win 34%. The expected total is 2.2 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14.7%. The match is projected to be tight and low-scoring, with each side’s offensive output reflecting their recent form: Kilmarnock averages 2.11 goals scored at home against similar opposition, whereas Aberdeen averages 1.2 goals away. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 86%, Under 3.5 at 81.2%, Under 5.5 cards at 79.7%, Under 11.5 corners at 77.3%, Over 2.5 cards at 75.0%, and Over 21.5 fouls at 74.3%.
Results analysis
Kilmarnock finished 0-1 against Aberdeen (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 34% home win, 31% draw and 34% away win. Picks that landed: Over 19.5 fouls (86%), Under 3.5 (81%), Under 11.5 corners (77%), Over 2.5 cards (75%), Over 21.5 fouls (74%). Missed: Under 5.5 cards (80%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kilmarnock win✗ Miss
34.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen win✓ Hit
34.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kilmarnock
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.90
1.93
0.79
1.06
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
1.27
1.36
1.60
1.00
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (19)
1.58
0.63
2.11
0.67
1.10
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aberdeen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.17
1.88
1.38
1.36
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
1.80
2.50
4.00
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (11)
1.18
1.09
1.17
0.50
1.20
1.80
vs Weaker (14)
2.14
1.00
2.25
1.38
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
66.8%
Under 1.5
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.8%
Under 2.5
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.8%
Under 3.5
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.7%
No
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
12.0%
0-1 ✓
10.6%
1-0
10.6%
1-2
7.5%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
6.6%
Kilmarnock goals ↓
Aberdeen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
11%
6.7%
2.5%
0.7%
1
11%
15%
7.5%
2.8%
0.8%
2
6.6%
7.5%
4.2%
1.6%
0.4%
3
2.5%
2.8%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.7%
0.8%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kilmarnock goals (down), columns = Aberdeen goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.29
Rangers
2.05
Aberdeen
1.76
Kilmarnock
1.76
Hibernian
1.42
ST Johnstone
1.37
Motherwell
1.34
Heart Of Midlothian
1.34
Livingston
1.16
Hamilton
0.87
ST Mirren
0.84
Dundee
0.55
Kilmarnock and Aberdeen are level in average points per game (both 1.76).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.16
Celtic
2.03
Aberdeen
1.50
Hibernian
1.34
Kilmarnock
1.32
Motherwell
1.21
Livingston
1.11
Heart Of Midlothian
1.11
ST Johnstone
1.00
ST Mirren
0.89
Dundee
0.82
Hamilton
0.74
Kilmarnock is 0.18 goals worse than Aberdeen in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.53
Rangers
0.71
Kilmarnock
0.82
Hibernian
1.03
Aberdeen
1.16
Livingston
1.16
ST Johnstone
1.26
Heart Of Midlothian
1.32
Motherwell
1.47
ST Mirren
1.74
Hamilton
1.97
Dundee
2.05
Kilmarnock is 0.34 goals better than Aberdeen in terms of goals conceded per game (0.82 vs 1.16).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kilmarnock
For 5.8 · Against 3.0 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 10.9 · Total 20.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aberdeen
For 6.0 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 12.9 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kilmarnock
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
8.9
9.7
4.1
4.0
4.1
24.4
24.7
24.2
vs Stronger (20)
9.9
9.3
10.5
4.4
4.1
4.6
23.9
24.6
23.5
vs Similar (30)
8.9
8.6
9.1
3.8
4.0
3.7
24.8
24.7
24.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
32%
29%
35%
56%
58%
54%
72%
67%
77%
% under line
68%
71%
65%
44%
42%
46%
28%
33%
23%
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aberdeen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.3
9.7
4.1
4.0
4.2
26.0
25.6
26.5
vs Stronger (10)
9.8
9.0
10.6
4.8
6.4
3.2
27.8
29.4
26.2
vs Similar (20)
8.6
8.8
8.3
5.0
4.8
5.1
27.8
27.4
28.1
vs Weaker (20)
10.3
9.9
10.8
2.9
2.3
3.7
23.4
22.3
24.8
% over line
48%
46%
50%
54%
54%
54%
84%
85%
83%
% under line
52%
54%
50%
46%
46%
46%
16%
15%
17%
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rangers
11.3
Dundee
10.9
Celtic
10.2
Hibernian
10.0
ST Mirren
9.8
ST Johnstone
9.8
Livingston
9.8
Motherwell
9.5
Aberdeen
9.5
Heart Of Midlothian
9.3
Kilmarnock
9.3
Hamilton
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Rangers
4.4
Aberdeen
4.1
Heart Of Midlothian
4.1
Kilmarnock
4.1
Hibernian
3.9
Hamilton
3.9
Dundee
3.8
Celtic
3.7
ST Mirren
3.6
ST Johnstone
3.5
Motherwell
3.3
Livingston
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
27.3
Aberdeen
26.0
Hamilton
25.7
Rangers
25.4
Motherwell
24.8
Kilmarnock
24.4
Hibernian
24.3
ST Mirren
23.6
Celtic
22.9
Dundee
22.7
ST Johnstone
22.5
Livingston
22.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
45.2%
Under 9.5
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
55.1%
Under 3.5
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
74.3%
Under 21.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kilmarnock
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.67
1.07
0.50
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
1.00
0.80
0.80
0.67
1.17
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.47
1.22
0.33
0.50
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aberdeen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
1.00
0.69
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
1.00
2.00
0.33
0.00
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.73
0.67
0.33
0.60
1.20
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.50
1.25
0.62
0.50
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kilmarnock
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.23
0.86
0.29
0.50
0.19
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
0.36
0.80
0.20
0.33
0.50
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.16
0.89
0.33
0.60
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
80% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aberdeen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.53
0.88
0.69
0.86
0.36
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.00
1.50
2.00
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.36
0.50
0.17
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (14)
1.21
0.50
1.00
0.75
1.50
0.17
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Kilmarnock · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Greg Kiltie33%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen33%
Joe Hugill33%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
Max Stryjek0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Bailey Rice0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joe Hugill67%
Tyreece John-Jules33%
Jamie Brandon33%
Bailey Rice33%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
Max Stryjek0%
George Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom Lowery67%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Max Stryjek0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
Joe Hugill0%
Bailey Rice0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Hugill33%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
Max Stryjek0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
Bailey Rice0%
Aberdeen · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kevin Nisbet33%
Lewis Mayo33%
Marius Müller0%
Daniel Happe0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
Lewis Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
Nesta Guinness-Walker0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aremu Afeez67%
Lewis Mayo67%
Daniel Happe33%
Chris Cadden33%
Kevin Nisbet33%
Toyosi Olusanya33%
Marius Müller0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Lewis Smith0%
Nesta Guinness-Walker0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kevin Nisbet33%
Marius Müller0%
Daniel Happe0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
Lewis Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
Nesta Guinness-Walker0%
Lewis Mayo0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Daniel Happe33%
Kevin Nisbet33%
Marius Müller0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
Lewis Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
Nesta Guinness-Walker0%
Lewis Mayo0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
Kilmarnock's squad is €8m less valuable than Aberdeen's (€7m vs €15m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
Kilmarnock's attack is €1m less valuable than Aberdeen's (€3m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
Kilmarnock's midfield is €2m less valuable than Aberdeen's (€2m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
Kilmarnock's defence is €4m less valuable than Aberdeen's (€3m vs €7m).
Scotland: Premiership 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Rangers
Hibernian
ST Johnstone
Heart Of Midlothian
Motherwell
Livingston
ST Mirren
Dundee