Defensive solidity is the headline of this clash, with Kilmarnock conceding just 0.62 goals per game at home and Aberdeen giving up a single goal on the road. The model favours a home win, assigning a 34% chance, while a draw and an away win each sit at 33% and 34% respectively. The expected total is 2.1 goals, with the most likely total of two goals occurring 28% of the time. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.8% probability. Kilmarnock’s home form shows 1.0 goal scored per match, and Aberdeen’s away form averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 87.1%, Under 5.5 cards at 84.6%, Over 21.5 fouls at 75.9%, Under 3.5 at 83.7% (miss), and Under 4.5 cards at 70.9% (miss). The match is poised for a tight, low-scoring affair.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Kilmarnock, failed to deliver, as the match finished 2-2, a draw that surprised the model’s 34% home-win pick. The model’s prediction was therefore incorrect. The game’s final score of 2-2 matched the expected total of 2.1 goals, with the most likely scoreline 1-1 at 14.8% and 0-0 at 13.5%. The model’s selections saw Over 19.5 fouls hit at 87.1%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 84.6%, while Under 3.5 missed at 83.7%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 75.9%, and Under 4.5 cards missed at 70.9%. Both sides were coming off defeats, with Kilmarnock down 0-4 to Dundee Utd and Aberdeen 0-1 to Rangers.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kilmarnock win✗ Miss
33.5%
Avg Implied 33.6% · @ 2.79
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
32.6%
Avg Implied 30.9% · @ 3.03
Edge
+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen win✗ Miss
33.9%
Avg Implied 35.5% · @ 2.64
Edge
-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kilmarnock
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.30
1.31
0.88
0.79
1.79
vs Stronger (14)
1.50
1.43
1.62
1.12
1.33
1.83
vs Similar (16)
0.69
1.19
1.00
0.62
0.38
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aberdeen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.17
1.47
1.27
1.13
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
2.50
1.00
2.67
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (10)
1.50
1.00
1.80
1.00
1.20
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.43
0.71
1.43
0.86
1.43
0.57
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.6%
Under 1.5
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
35.2%
@ 2.45-3.2%
Under 2.5
64.8%
@ 1.53+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
16.3%
Under 3.5
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.8%
No
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
13.5%
0-1
11.5%
1-0
11.4%
1-2
7.1%
2-1
7.1%
0-2
6.8%
2-0
6.7%
Kilmarnock goals ↓
Aberdeen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
12%
6.8%
2.4%
0.6%
1
11%
15%
7.1%
2.5%
0.7%
2
6.7%
7.1%
3.7%
1.3%
0.3%
3
2.3%
2.5%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.6%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kilmarnock goals (down), columns = Aberdeen goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.67
Rangers
2.31
Motherwell
1.53
Aberdeen
1.50
Livingston
1.30
ST Johnstone
1.24
Hibernian
1.23
Kilmarnock
1.10
Ross County
0.97
ST Mirren
0.97
Hamilton
0.90
Heart Of Midlothian
0.77
Kilmarnock is 0.40 points worse than Aberdeen in terms of average points per game (1.10 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.97
Rangers
2.21
Hibernian
1.40
Livingston
1.37
Motherwell
1.37
Aberdeen
1.33
Heart Of Midlothian
1.03
Kilmarnock
1.03
Hamilton
1.00
Ross County
0.97
ST Johnstone
0.97
ST Mirren
0.80
Kilmarnock is 0.30 goals worse than Aberdeen in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.63
Rangers
0.66
Aberdeen
1.20
Motherwell
1.27
Livingston
1.30
Kilmarnock
1.37
ST Mirren
1.37
ST Johnstone
1.59
Hibernian
1.63
Hamilton
1.67
Heart Of Midlothian
1.73
Ross County
2.00
Kilmarnock is 0.17 goals worse than Aberdeen in terms of goals conceded per game (1.37 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kilmarnock
For 4.8 · Against 6.9 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 11.8 · Total 23.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aberdeen
For 5.5 · Against 4.0 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 12.1 · Total 25.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kilmarnock
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.3
10.2
3.8
3.6
3.9
23.7
24.8
22.7
vs Stronger (22)
10.4
10.5
10.4
3.9
3.5
4.3
23.3
24.9
21.7
vs Similar (28)
9.2
8.4
10.0
3.7
3.8
3.6
24.1
24.7
23.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
36%
36%
36%
56%
56%
56%
62%
68%
56%
% under line
64%
64%
64%
44%
44%
44%
38%
32%
44%
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aberdeen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.2
9.2
3.7
3.5
4.0
26.2
26.4
26.1
vs Stronger (11)
9.8
10.0
9.6
3.9
3.8
4.0
24.0
24.7
23.2
vs Similar (16)
7.1
7.6
6.6
5.1
4.9
5.2
28.6
29.2
27.9
vs Weaker (23)
10.3
9.9
10.7
2.7
2.3
3.1
25.7
25.3
26.1
% over line
46%
48%
44%
50%
48%
52%
78%
80%
76%
% under line
54%
52%
56%
50%
52%
48%
22%
20%
24%
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Hamilton
11.1
Rangers
10.7
Ross County
10.5
Hibernian
10.5
ST Mirren
10.4
Heart Of Midlothian
10.3
Celtic
10.3
ST Johnstone
10.0
Livingston
9.8
Motherwell
9.8
Kilmarnock
9.7
Aberdeen
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Heart Of Midlothian
4.3
Ross County
4.0
Rangers
3.8
Motherwell
3.8
Kilmarnock
3.8
Hibernian
3.8
Aberdeen
3.7
ST Johnstone
3.4
Celtic
3.3
ST Mirren
3.2
Hamilton
3.1
Livingston
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
27.5
Aberdeen
26.2
Hamilton
24.9
Motherwell
24.0
Ross County
23.8
Kilmarnock
23.7
ST Mirren
23.3
Rangers
23.2
ST Johnstone
23.1
Hibernian
22.9
Livingston
22.5
Celtic
21.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
54.0%
Under 9.5
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
48.2%
Under 3.5
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
75.9%
Under 21.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kilmarnock
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.57
0.71
vs Stronger (14)
0.79
0.64
0.75
0.62
0.83
0.67
vs Similar (16)
0.31
0.56
0.25
0.38
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aberdeen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
0.73
0.80
0.67
0.40
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.67
0.67
2.33
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.20
0.60
0.20
0.40
0.20
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.43
0.86
0.57
1.00
0.29
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kilmarnock
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.81
0.38
0.21
1.07
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
0.79
0.88
0.50
0.50
1.17
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.62
0.75
0.25
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aberdeen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.73
0.47
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.83
0.33
0.33
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.80
1.20
0.80
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (14)
0.50
0.29
0.57
0.29
0.43
0.29
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Kilmarnock · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Greg Kiltie33%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen33%
Joe Hugill33%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
Max Stryjek0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Bailey Rice0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joe Hugill67%
Tyreece John-Jules33%
Jamie Brandon33%
Bailey Rice33%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
Max Stryjek0%
George Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom Lowery67%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Max Stryjek0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
Joe Hugill0%
Bailey Rice0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Hugill33%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
Max Stryjek0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
Bailey Rice0%
Aberdeen · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kevin Nisbet33%
Lewis Mayo33%
Marius Müller0%
Daniel Happe0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
Lewis Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
Nesta Guinness-Walker0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aremu Afeez67%
Lewis Mayo67%
Daniel Happe33%
Chris Cadden33%
Kevin Nisbet33%
Toyosi Olusanya33%
Marius Müller0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Lewis Smith0%
Nesta Guinness-Walker0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kevin Nisbet33%
Marius Müller0%
Daniel Happe0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
Lewis Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
Nesta Guinness-Walker0%
Lewis Mayo0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Daniel Happe33%
Kevin Nisbet33%
Marius Müller0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
Lewis Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
Nesta Guinness-Walker0%
Lewis Mayo0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Kilmarnock's squad is €8m less valuable than Aberdeen's (€7m vs €15m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Kilmarnock's attack is €1m less valuable than Aberdeen's (€3m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Kilmarnock's midfield is €2m less valuable than Aberdeen's (€2m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Kilmarnock's defence is €4m less valuable than Aberdeen's (€3m vs €7m).
Scotland: Premiership 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Rangers
Motherwell
Livingston
Hibernian
ST Johnstone
ST Mirren
Ross County
Heart Of Midlothian