Kilmarnock’s defensive record at home - averaging 1.14 goals conceded - has been solid, but their attack, scoring 2.14 goals per game against similar opposition, is less potent than Aberdeen’s away form, where the Dons have managed only 0.8 goals per match and have given up 1.2. The model therefore favours a home win, with a 35% chance, a draw 32% and an away win 33%. The expected total of 2.2 goals points to a tight affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.7% probability. The Pythia picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 90.8%, Under 5.5 cards at 88.9%, Under 3.5 goals at 82.0%, Over 21.5 fouls at 81.7% and Under 4.5 cards at 77.1%. Kilmarnock are coming off a 0-4 loss to Dundee Utd, while Aberdeen are also returning from a defeat, 0-1 to Rangers. This suggests a cautious, low-scoring game where the home side’s defensive solidity may give them the edge.
Results analysis
The upset came as Kilmarnock, the pre-match favourite, fell short of the 0-2 away win for Aberdeen. The model had picked a home win with a 35% probability, but that call was wrong. The match delivered a 0-2 result, confirming the away triumph. The model’s other selections all hit: Over 19.5 fouls at 90.8%, Under 5.5 cards at 88.9%, Under 3.5 total goals at 82.0%, Over 21.5 fouls at 81.7%, and Under 4.5 cards at 77.1%. Kilmarnock’s recent form, after a 0-4 loss to Dundee Utd, was shaky, while Aberdeen, also coming off a 0-1 defeat to Rangers, showed resilience. The final score matched the model’s most likely 2-goal total.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kilmarnock win✗ Miss
35.1%
Avg Implied 30.4% · @ 3.08
Edge
+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.8%
Avg Implied 29.1% · @ 3.22
Edge
+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen win✓ Hit
33.1%
Avg Implied 40.4% · @ 2.32
Edge
-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kilmarnock
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.43
1.54
1.31
0.71
1.53
vs Stronger (12)
0.83
1.75
0.83
1.50
0.83
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.22
1.22
2.14
1.14
0.64
1.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aberdeen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.13
1.50
1.19
1.00
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
2.00
1.33
2.00
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (10)
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.00
0.80
1.20
vs Weaker (14)
1.64
0.79
1.75
1.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
65.8%
Under 1.5
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
37.7%
@ 2.35-2.5%
Under 2.5
62.3%
@ 1.58+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.0%
Under 3.5
82.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.8%
No
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
12.4%
1-0
11.1%
0-1
10.6%
2-1
7.5%
1-2
7.2%
2-0
7.0%
0-2 ✓
6.5%
Kilmarnock goals ↓
Aberdeen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
11%
6.5%
2.3%
0.6%
1
11%
15%
7.2%
2.6%
0.7%
2
7.0%
7.5%
4.0%
1.5%
0.4%
3
2.6%
2.8%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.7%
0.8%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kilmarnock goals (down), columns = Aberdeen goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rangers
2.68
Celtic
2.03
Hibernian
1.66
Aberdeen
1.47
Livingston
1.18
ST Mirren
1.18
Motherwell
1.18
ST Johnstone
1.18
Dundee Utd
1.16
Ross County
1.03
Kilmarnock
0.95
Hamilton
0.79
Kilmarnock is 0.53 points worse than Aberdeen in terms of average points per game (0.95 vs 1.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.42
Celtic
2.05
Hibernian
1.26
Kilmarnock
1.13
Livingston
1.11
Motherwell
1.03
ST Mirren
0.97
Aberdeen
0.95
ST Johnstone
0.95
Ross County
0.92
Hamilton
0.89
Dundee Utd
0.84
Kilmarnock is 0.18 goals better than Aberdeen in terms of goals scored per game (1.13 vs 0.95).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rangers
0.34
Celtic
0.76
Hibernian
0.92
Aberdeen
1.00
ST Mirren
1.18
ST Johnstone
1.21
Dundee Utd
1.32
Livingston
1.42
Kilmarnock
1.42
Motherwell
1.45
Ross County
1.74
Hamilton
1.76
Kilmarnock is 0.42 goals worse than Aberdeen in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kilmarnock
For 4.4 · Against 7.2 · Total 11.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 15.5 · Total 27.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aberdeen
For 5.6 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.7 · Against 12.5 · Total 27.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kilmarnock
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.0
11.1
3.5
3.3
3.6
24.8
25.5
24.2
vs Stronger (22)
10.8
10.5
11.2
3.2
3.2
3.3
24.4
25.9
22.8
vs Similar (28)
10.4
9.7
11.0
3.6
3.4
3.9
25.2
25.2
25.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
54%
50%
52%
54%
50%
74%
79%
69%
% under line
48%
46%
50%
48%
46%
50%
26%
21%
31%
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aberdeen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.3
9.4
3.1
3.0
3.3
26.5
26.9
26.1
vs Stronger (11)
9.6
9.5
9.8
3.4
3.0
3.8
24.2
25.3
22.8
vs Similar (17)
9.3
9.8
8.8
3.8
3.9
3.6
27.7
29.1
26.1
vs Weaker (22)
9.2
8.8
9.6
2.5
2.2
2.8
26.8
25.9
27.6
% over line
46%
46%
46%
34%
27%
42%
80%
81%
79%
% under line
54%
54%
54%
66%
73%
58%
20%
19%
21%
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dundee Utd
11.3
Hamilton
11.3
Rangers
11.1
Hibernian
10.7
Ross County
10.7
Kilmarnock
10.6
ST Mirren
10.5
Motherwell
10.5
Celtic
10.3
ST Johnstone
9.6
Livingston
9.5
Aberdeen
9.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Motherwell
3.7
Kilmarnock
3.5
Dundee Utd
3.4
Rangers
3.4
ST Johnstone
3.4
Ross County
3.4
Celtic
3.3
Hibernian
3.3
ST Mirren
3.3
Hamilton
3.1
Aberdeen
3.1
Livingston
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.5
Hamilton
25.0
Motherwell
24.9
Kilmarnock
24.8
ST Johnstone
24.5
Livingston
24.4
Ross County
24.2
Hibernian
24.1
ST Mirren
23.5
Dundee Utd
22.8
Rangers
22.8
Celtic
21.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.1%
Under 9.5
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.9%
Under 3.5
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
81.7%
Under 21.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kilmarnock
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.62
0.85
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.92
0.33
1.17
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.50
0.86
0.57
0.36
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aberdeen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.75
0.62
0.64
0.43
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.70
0.60
1.00
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.29
0.88
0.38
1.00
0.17
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kilmarnock
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.77
0.92
0.46
0.24
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
0.83
0.50
0.33
0.17
1.33
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.72
1.29
0.57
0.27
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aberdeen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.60
0.75
0.56
0.36
0.64
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.17
0.67
1.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.40
0.60
0.00
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (14)
0.71
0.50
0.88
0.62
0.50
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Kilmarnock · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Greg Kiltie33%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen33%
Joe Hugill33%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
Max Stryjek0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Bailey Rice0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joe Hugill67%
Tyreece John-Jules33%
Jamie Brandon33%
Bailey Rice33%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
Max Stryjek0%
George Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom Lowery67%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Max Stryjek0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
Joe Hugill0%
Bailey Rice0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Hugill33%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
Max Stryjek0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
Bailey Rice0%
Aberdeen · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kevin Nisbet33%
Lewis Mayo33%
Marius Müller0%
Daniel Happe0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
Lewis Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
Nesta Guinness-Walker0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aremu Afeez67%
Lewis Mayo67%
Daniel Happe33%
Chris Cadden33%
Kevin Nisbet33%
Toyosi Olusanya33%
Marius Müller0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Lewis Smith0%
Nesta Guinness-Walker0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kevin Nisbet33%
Marius Müller0%
Daniel Happe0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
Lewis Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
Nesta Guinness-Walker0%
Lewis Mayo0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Daniel Happe33%
Kevin Nisbet33%
Marius Müller0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
Lewis Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
Nesta Guinness-Walker0%
Lewis Mayo0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Kilmarnock's squad is €8m less valuable than Aberdeen's (€7m vs €15m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Kilmarnock's attack is €1m less valuable than Aberdeen's (€3m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Kilmarnock's midfield is €2m less valuable than Aberdeen's (€2m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Kilmarnock's defence is €4m less valuable than Aberdeen's (€3m vs €7m).
Scotland: Premiership 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Rangers
Celtic
Hibernian
ST Mirren
ST Johnstone
Livingston
Motherwell
Dundee Utd
Ross County