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Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen Prediction & Stats

Date: 12/09/2026
Time: 16:45
Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock
Vs
46%
29%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Aberdeen
Aberdeen
Scotland: League Cup
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Kilmarnock are tipped to lift the trophy, with a 47% chance of victory, a 28% chance of a draw and a 25% chance of Aberdeen winning. The model’s pick is a home win, and the expected total goals hover at 2.5, with the most likely total being two goals (27% probability). The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.6% chance. Kilmarnock, playing at home against a stronger opponent, have averaged 1.75 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, while Aberdeen, away to a weaker side, have averaged 1.14 scored and 2.29 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.9%), Under 5.5 (95.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.5%), Under 5.5 cards (92.8%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.4%) and Home +2 handicap (90.3%). Both teams are coming off recent wins, with Kilmarnock beating Ayr Utd 3-2 and Aberdeen demolishing Dundee 3-0.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kilmarnock win
46.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen win
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KilmarnockKilmarnock

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-541W00D10W10W00D34L15L32W04L01LA·LIV17/05H·RAI14/07A·ELG18/07H·HAM21/07A·PET25/07A·ST 02/08H·CEL09/08H·AYR14/08H·DUN29/08H·ST 02/09
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.771.691.621.141.93
vs Stronger (6)1.003.171.252.750.504.00
vs Similar (23)1.571.481.911.361.251.58
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AberdeenAberdeen

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L23L21W41W30W21W02L30W01L03LH·ST 12/05A·DUN17/05H·QUE18/07A·QUE22/07H·KEL25/07H·HEA01/08A·DUN08/08H·DUN15/08H·RAN30/08A·CEL02/09
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.471.750.940.642.07
vs Stronger (6)0.332.330.331.670.333.00
vs Similar (11)0.910.821.670.330.001.40
vs Weaker (13)1.921.622.431.141.332.17
Clean sheet %27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.5%
Under 1.5
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
45.6%
Under 2.5
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.2%
Under 3.5
75.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
50.7%
No
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
10.9%
0-0
9.5%
2-1
9.1%
2-0
8.9%
0-1
7.2%
1-2
6.4%
2-2
4.7%
Kilmarnock goals ↓
Aberdeen goals →
01234
09.5%7.2%4.3%1.5%0.4%
111%14%6.4%2.2%0.6%
28.9%9.1%4.7%1.6%0.4%
34.4%4.5%2.3%0.8%0.2%
41.6%1.7%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kilmarnock goals (down), columns = Aberdeen goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.60
ST Johnstone
2.60
Partick
2.50
Alloa Athletic
2.40
Rangers
2.33
ST Mirren
2.25
Airdrie United
2.25
Dunfermline
2.25
Kilmarnock
2.20
Falkirk
2.00
Motherwell
2.00
Ayr Utd
1.80
Morton
1.80
Celtic
1.75
Cove Rangers
1.75
Ross County
1.75
Inverness CT
1.50
Hibernian
1.50
Dundee
1.50
Aberdeen
1.50
Raith Rovers
1.50
East Kilbride
1.50
Dumbarton
1.50
Spartans
1.50
Livingston
1.50
Queen's Park
1.50
Stranraer
1.25
Clyde
1.25
Forfar
1.00
Arbroath
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.00
East Fife
1.00
Hamilton Academical
0.75
Montrose
0.75
Queen of the South
0.75
Kelty Hearts
0.33
Annan Athletic
0.25
Edinburgh City
0.25
Dundee Utd
0.00
Brechin
0.00
Elgin
0.00
Stirling
0.00
Peterhead
0.00
Kilmarnock is 0.70 points better than Aberdeen in terms of average points per game (2.20 vs 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Heart Of Midlothian
3.40
Raith Rovers
3.25
Falkirk
3.00
ST Johnstone
3.00
Ayr Utd
2.80
ST Mirren
2.75
East Kilbride
2.75
Ross County
2.75
Celtic
2.50
Rangers
2.33
Inverness CT
2.25
Dunfermline
2.25
Queen's Park
2.25
Partick
2.17
Airdrie United
2.00
Dundee
2.00
Morton
2.00
Livingston
2.00
Kilmarnock
1.80
Alloa Athletic
1.80
Aberdeen
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Arbroath
1.50
Montrose
1.50
Motherwell
1.43
Cove Rangers
1.25
Dundee Utd
1.00
Hibernian
1.00
Annan Athletic
1.00
Spartans
1.00
Peterhead
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Hamilton Academical
0.75
Forfar
0.75
Stenhousemuir
0.75
East Fife
0.67
Elgin
0.50
Stranraer
0.50
Dumbarton
0.50
Edinburgh City
0.25
Brechin
0.00
Kelty Hearts
0.00
Stirling
0.00
Kilmarnock is 0.30 goals better than Aberdeen in terms of goals scored per game (1.80 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.40
ST Johnstone
0.40
Aberdeen
0.50
Cove Rangers
0.50
Kilmarnock
0.60
Dundee
0.75
Stranraer
0.75
Airdrie United
1.00
Hibernian
1.00
Rangers
1.00
Falkirk
1.00
Motherwell
1.00
Partick
1.00
Ayr Utd
1.00
Livingston
1.00
Ross County
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
ST Mirren
1.12
Celtic
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Dunfermline
1.25
Alloa Athletic
1.40
Forfar
1.50
Spartans
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.50
Queen's Park
1.50
Morton
1.60
Hamilton Academical
1.75
Dundee Utd
2.00
Inverness CT
2.00
Dumbarton
2.00
Clyde
2.00
East Fife
2.00
Raith Rovers
2.25
Stirling
2.25
Peterhead
2.25
Kelty Hearts
2.33
Montrose
2.50
East Kilbride
3.00
Edinburgh City
4.00
Brechin
4.25
Elgin
4.75
Annan Athletic
5.25
Kilmarnock is 0.10 goals worse than Aberdeen in terms of goals conceded per game (0.60 vs 0.50).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Celtic
63%
ST Mirren
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

KilmarnockKilmarnock

For 4.4 · Against 4.2 · Total 8.6

🚩 Corners

120733557365163166241481081296978512H·ST H·DUNH·CELA·ST A·PETH·HAMA·LIVH·DUNA·ST H·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.3

🟨 Cards

70223312211121431314614213741H·ST H·DUNH·CELA·ST A·PETH·HAMA·LIVH·DUNA·ST H·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 10.6 · Total 21.8

⚠️ Fouls

31012131112121013612125410101318111113102523221924920312223H·ST H·DUNH·CELA·ST A·PETH·HAMA·LIVH·DUNA·ST H·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

AberdeenAberdeen

For 5.3 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.6

🚩 Corners

200515664546132761423665201291013976911A·CELH·RANA·DUNH·HEAH·KELA·DUNH·ST H·DUNA·LIVH·KIL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.6

🟨 Cards

9011633123212161314232945237455A·CELH·RANA·DUNH·HEAH·KELH·ST H·DUNA·LIVH·KILH·HIB
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 13.1 · Total 25.8

⚠️ Fouls

360710211512910171113914141112161510161617362127242325282532A·CELH·RANA·DUNH·HEAH·KELA·DUNH·ST H·DUNA·LIVH·KIL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

KilmarnockKilmarnock

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.69.49.94.04.23.724.325.123.5
vs Stronger (13)11.210.711.73.84.13.522.123.720.2
vs Similar (36)9.08.79.24.14.43.825.927.024.9
vs Weaker (1)9.09.0-1.01.0-9.09.0-
% over line51%45%57%62%67%57%72%82%62%
% under line49%55%43%38%33%43%28%18%38%
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AberdeenAberdeen

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.410.99.94.04.33.725.426.823.9
vs Stronger (11)11.412.410.54.56.62.725.527.623.7
vs Similar (21)9.710.09.25.04.85.226.227.324.5
vs Weaker (18)10.611.310.12.62.32.924.225.223.5
% over line62%74%50%56%63%48%84%96%73%
% under line38%26%50%44%37%52%16%4%27%
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
ST Mirren
11.1
Celtic
11.0
Ross County
10.9
Stirling
10.9
Morton
10.9
Dundee Utd
10.5
Hamilton Academical
10.5
Hibernian
10.5
Aberdeen
10.4
Partick
10.4
East Kilbride
10.4
Dumbarton
10.4
Stranraer
10.3
Elgin
10.3
Heart Of Midlothian
10.3
Rangers
10.1
Airdrie United
10.1
ST Johnstone
10.1
Brechin
10.1
Alloa Athletic
10.0
Ayr Utd
10.0
Annan Athletic
9.9
Livingston
9.9
Clyde
9.8
Dundee
9.7
East Fife
9.6
Falkirk
9.6
Arbroath
9.6
Kilmarnock
9.5
Kelty Hearts
9.5
Cove Rangers
9.4
Dunfermline
9.3
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.2
Inverness CT
9.1
Forfar
9.1
Queen's Park
9.0
Peterhead
8.9
Stenhousemuir
8.5
Montrose
8.5
Motherwell
8.3
Queen of the South
6.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Edinburgh City
5.1
Peterhead
5.0
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Aberdeen
4.7
Motherwell
4.7
Hibernian
4.6
Heart Of Midlothian
4.6
Morton
4.5
Partick
4.4
Forfar
4.3
Rangers
4.3
Elgin
4.3
Kilmarnock
4.2
Kelty Hearts
4.2
Clyde
4.2
Falkirk
4.2
Livingston
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Spartans
4.1
Dundee Utd
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Ayr Utd
4.0
ST Johnstone
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Celtic
3.8
Montrose
3.7
Dundee
3.7
Arbroath
3.6
East Fife
3.5
ST Mirren
3.5
Brechin
3.5
Dumbarton
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2
Inverness CT
3.2
Queen of the South
3.0
Raith Rovers
3.0
Hamilton Academical
2.7
Queen's Park
2.5
Alloa Athletic
1.0

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
Rangers
26.7
East Kilbride
26.4
Motherwell
25.9
Aberdeen
25.6
Falkirk
25.4
Stenhousemuir
25.4
Livingston
25.3
Heart Of Midlothian
24.6
Kilmarnock
24.2
Forfar
24.0
Edinburgh City
23.9
Hibernian
23.2
East Fife
22.9
Elgin
22.7
Kelty Hearts
22.5
Stranraer
22.3
ST Mirren
22.2
ST Johnstone
22.2
Annan Athletic
22.2
Montrose
22.2
Alloa Athletic
22.0
Ayr Utd
22.0
Dundee
21.9
Dundee Utd
21.9
Clyde
21.7
Morton
21.6
Inverness CT
21.6
Celtic
21.4
Stirling
21.1
Cove Rangers
21.0
Ross County
21.0
Arbroath
20.9
Dunfermline
20.7
Dumbarton
20.5
Brechin
20.5
Spartans
20.4
Queen of the South
20.0
Airdrie United
20.0
Partick
19.9
Queen's Park
19.0
Hamilton Academical
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kilmarnock or Draw
74.9%
Avg Implied -
46%
29%
25%
covers Kilmarnock + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock or Aberdeen
71.3%
Avg Implied -
46%
29%
25%
covers Kilmarnock + Aberdeen
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Aberdeen
53.7%
Avg Implied -
46%
29%
25%
covers Draw + Aberdeen
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5
Over
77.1%
Under
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5
Over
43.3%
Under
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5
Over
18.4%
Under
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 3.5
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5
Over
64.1%
Under
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 1.5
Over
27.3%
Under
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 2.5
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 3.5
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Kilmarnock, so a minus line means Kilmarnock give that many goals of a start and Aberdeen receive them. At -1, Kilmarnock must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kilmarnock win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kilmarnock)
Kilmarnock -2
9.3%
Draw -2
14.4%
Aberdeen +2
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kilmarnock)
Kilmarnock -1
23.6%
Draw -1
22.6%
Aberdeen +1
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kilmarnock)
Kilmarnock +1
74.9%
Draw +1
15.4%
Aberdeen -1
9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kilmarnock)
Kilmarnock +2
90.3%
Draw +2
6.9%
Aberdeen -2
2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KilmarnockKilmarnock

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W00D00D00D00D11D03L11D03L01LA·LIV17/05H·RAI14/07A·ELG18/07H·HAM21/07A·PET25/07A·ST 02/08H·CEL09/08H·AYR14/08H·DUN29/08H·ST 02/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.770.810.690.430.86
vs Stronger (6)0.501.170.751.000.001.50
vs Similar (23)0.700.700.910.640.500.75
vs Weaker (1)0.000.000.000.00--
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AberdeenAberdeen

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L21W20W11D20W01L01L00D00D03LH·ST 12/05A·DUN17/05H·QUE18/07A·QUE22/07H·KEL25/07H·HEA01/08A·DUN08/08H·DUN15/08H·RAN30/08A·CEL02/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.800.880.500.291.14
vs Stronger (6)0.171.330.330.670.002.00
vs Similar (11)0.360.450.670.170.000.80
vs Weaker (13)1.000.851.290.710.671.00
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KilmarnockKilmarnock

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W00D10W10W00D23L12L21W01L00DA·LIV17/05H·RAI14/07A·ELG18/07H·HAM21/07A·PET25/07A·ST 02/08H·CEL09/08H·AYR14/08H·DUN29/08H·ST 02/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.801.000.880.940.711.07
vs Stronger (6)0.502.000.501.750.502.50
vs Similar (23)0.870.781.000.730.750.83
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AberdeenAberdeen

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L02L01L30W10W20W01L30W01L00DH·ST 12/05A·DUN17/05H·QUE18/07A·QUE22/07H·KEL25/07H·HEA01/08A·DUN08/08H·DUN15/08H·RAN30/08A·CEL02/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.670.880.440.360.93
vs Stronger (6)0.171.000.001.000.331.00
vs Similar (11)0.550.361.000.170.000.60
vs Weaker (13)0.920.771.140.430.671.17
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.6%-------
Under 6.598.6%-------
Away under 3.5 goals97.9%-------
Under 5.595.8%-------
Home under 3.5 goals93.8%-------
Away under 2.5 goals91.5%-------
Home +2 handicap90.3%-------
Under 4.589.1%-------
Home under 2.5 goals81.6%-------
Home over 0.5 goals77.1%-------
Away +2 handicap76.4%-------
Under 3.575.8%-------
Home or Draw74.9%-------
Home +1 handicap74.9%-------
Away under 1.5 goals72.7%-------
Over 1.572.5%-------
Home or Away71.3%-------

🎽 13. Player market rates

Kilmarnock
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Greg Kiltie25%
M. Schjønning-Larsen25%
Joe Hugill25%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
J. Brandon0%
G. Stanger0%
E. Ring0%
B. Rice0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joe Hugill50%
B. Rice50%
Tyreece John-Jules25%
J. Brandon25%
Greg Kiltie25%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
G. Stanger0%
M. Schjønning-Larsen0%
E. Ring0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom Lowery50%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
J. Brandon0%
G. Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
M. Schjønning-Larsen0%
E. Ring0%
Joe Hugill0%
B. Rice0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Hugill25%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
J. Brandon0%
G. Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
M. Schjønning-Larsen0%
E. Ring0%
B. Rice0%
Aberdeen
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
K. Nisbet25%
L. Mayo25%
M. Müller0%
Daniel Happe0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
L. Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
C. Ronan0%
N. Guinness-Walker0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Alexander Briedl0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
L. Mayo75%
Aremu Afeez50%
Daniel Happe33%
C. Ronan33%
Alexander Briedl33%
Chris Cadden25%
K. Nisbet25%
Toyosi Olusanya25%
M. Müller0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
L. Smith0%
N. Guinness-Walker0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
K. Nisbet25%
M. Müller0%
Daniel Happe0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
L. Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
C. Ronan0%
N. Guinness-Walker0%
L. Mayo0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Alexander Briedl0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Daniel Happe33%
K. Nisbet25%
M. Müller0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
L. Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
C. Ronan0%
N. Guinness-Walker0%
L. Mayo0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Alexander Briedl0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
KH (4)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Kilmarnock's squad is €8m less valuable than Aberdeen's (€7m vs €15m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Kilmarnock's attack is €1m less valuable than Aberdeen's (€3m vs €4m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Kilmarnock's midfield is €2m less valuable than Aberdeen's (€2m vs €4m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Kilmarnock's defence is €4m less valuable than Aberdeen's (€3m vs €7m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
KIL wins
0
Draws
5
ABE wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen · H/A from KIL
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26AAberdeen Vs KIL1-0
31/01/26HKIL Vs Aberdeen3-0
14/12/25AAberdeen Vs KIL2-1
29/10/25HKIL Vs Aberdeen0-1
22/02/25AAberdeen Vs KIL1-0
26/12/24HKIL Vs Aberdeen4-0
25/08/24AAberdeen Vs KIL2-0
24/02/24HKIL Vs Aberdeen2-0

KilmarnockKilmarnock

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/09/26HKIL Vs ST Mirren0-1
29/08/26HKIL Vs Dundee Utd0-4
14/08/26HKIL Vs Ayr Utd3-2
09/08/26HKIL Vs Celtic1-5
02/08/26AST Johnstone Vs KIL4-3
25/07/26APeterhead Vs KIL0-0
21/07/26HKIL Vs Hamilton Academical1-0
18/07/26AElgin Vs KIL0-1
14/07/26HKIL Vs Raith Rovers0-0
17/05/26ALivingston Vs KIL1-4

AberdeenAberdeen

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/09/26ACeltic Vs ABE3-0
30/08/26HABE Vs Rangers0-1
15/08/26HABE Vs Dundee3-0
08/08/26ADundee Vs ABE2-0
01/08/26HABE Vs Heart Of Midlothian2-1
25/07/26HABE Vs Kelty Hearts3-0
22/07/26AQueen of the South Vs ABE1-4
18/07/26HABE Vs Queen's Park2-1
17/05/26ADundee Vs ABE3-2
12/05/26HABE Vs ST Mirren0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock
Scotland: League Cup
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL1.10
HomeWLWLL1.29
AwayWWWDL0.86
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%36%18%
AVG goals3.062.963.18
Over 1.5 %78%75%82%
Over 2.5 %64%64%64%
Over 3.5 %42%39%45%
Scored1.281.361.18
Conceded1.781.612.00
BTTS54%50%59%
Clean Sheet26%29%23%
Corners9.599.309.90
Cards4.414.724.05
Aberdeen
Aberdeen
Scotland: League Cup
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLL1.24
HomeWWWWL1.69
AwayDLWLL0.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%50%21%
AVG goals2.682.772.58
Over 1.5 %76%81%71%
Over 2.5 %46%46%46%
Over 3.5 %24%19%29%
Scored1.201.690.67
Conceded1.481.081.92
BTTS38%50%25%
Clean Sheet28%35%21%
Corners10.3310.879.78
Cards4.615.044.14

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1CelticCeltic412
100%
3.0
112+9
3.2
75%
75%
25%
13.5
75%
2.5
25%
19.0
25%
116
5620412.80.5
66%
2ST MirrenST Mirren410
75%
2.5
73+4
2.5
50%
25%
25%
11.2
75%
3.8
75%
26.5
75%
8
1331.80.8
46%
3Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian49
75%
2.2
104+6
3.5
100%
100%
50%
11.5
75%
4.0
67%
24.8
100%
22
12462.51.0
53%
4MotherwellMotherwell48
50%
2.0
84+4
3.0
75%
75%
25%
10.2
75%
3.5
75%
25.0
75%
16
10152.01.0
58%
5DundeeDundee57
40%
1.4
64+2
2.0
80%
20%
0%
9.6
40%
3.4
40%
22.2
60%
5
1221.20.8
44%
6RangersRangers47
50%
1.8
54+1
2.2
75%
50%
0%
12.0
100%
4.5
50%
29.8
100%
136
3844541.21.0
58%
7HibernianHibernian46
50%
1.5
67-1
3.2
100%
100%
25%
11.0
75%
3.0
50%
24.5
100%
20
7851.51.8
47%
8ST JohnstoneST Johnstone44
25%
1.0
67-1
3.2
75%
50%
25%
8.8
25%
3.0
33%
23.2
50%
5
2121.51.8
-
9Dundee UtdDundee Utd54
20%
0.8
510-5
3.0
100%
60%
40%
11.0
60%
4.4
60%
22.2
80%
11
4341.02.0
42%
10AberdeenAberdeen43
25%
0.8
27-5
2.2
75%
50%
0%
12.8
75%
5.0
75%
25.2
50%
15
4470.51.8
48%
11FalkirkFalkirk41
0%
0.2
26-4
2.0
75%
50%
0%
9.5
50%
4.0
75%
29.8
75%
6
2130.51.5
51%
12KilmarnockKilmarnock40
0%
0.0
414-10
4.5
75%
75%
75%
9.8
50%
3.8
75%
22.2
75%
7
3231.03.5
42%
Scotland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →

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