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Kilmarnock vs Ayr Utd Result & Analysis

Date: 14/08/2026
Time: 18:45
Final 3-2
Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock
Vs
55%
26%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
Scotland: League Cup
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Player market rates14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Kilmarnock are tipped to win, with a 55 % chance of triumph, a 26 % draw probability and a 20 % chance of an Ayr Utd victory. The model expects 2.8 goals in total, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 25 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.2 % chance. Kilmarnock’s home form shows they average 1.88 goals scored and 0.88 conceded against similar opposition, while Ayr Utd’s away record is 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded against similar teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.2 %), Under 6.5 (97.8 %), Under 5.5 (93.9 %), Home +2 handicap (92.8 %), Away under 2.5 goals (92.3 %), Under 25.5 fouls (91.5 %) and Under 5.5 cards (91.4 %). Kilmarnock entered the match on a win, having beaten Ayr Utd 3-2, while Ayr Utd were coming off two defeats.

Results analysis

Kilmarnock’s recent win over Ayr Utd extended their winning run, and the model’s prediction of a home win proved correct as Kilmarnock triumphed 3-2. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 55 % probability and was right. The model’s selections performed well: Under 7.5 (99.3 %) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (98.2 %) hit, Under 6.5 (97.8 %) hit, Under 5.5 (93.9 %) hit, Home +2 handicap (92.8 %) hit, and Away under 2.5 goals (92.3 %) hit. With a 26 % draw chance and 20 % away win, the 3-2 scoreline matched the model’s expectation of a home victory and a total of 5 goals, confirming the accuracy of the predictions.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kilmarnock win✓ Hit
54.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd win✗ Miss
19.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KilmarnockKilmarnock

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-530W30W31W41W00D10W10W00D34L15LH·DUN02/05A·ST 09/05H·DUN12/05A·LIV17/05H·RAI14/07A·ELG18/07H·HAM21/07A·PET25/07A·ST 02/08H·CEL09/08
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.731.601.531.131.93
vs Stronger (7)0.863.141.002.800.504.00
vs Similar (22)1.551.362.001.001.231.62
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W12L12L01L32W10W20W41W20W11DH·ARB11/04A·ROS18/04A·AIR25/04H·ST 01/05A·STR11/07A·FAL14/07H·EDI18/07H·ALL25/07H·ARB01/08A·DUN08/08
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.271.251.001.141.57
vs Stronger (1)3.000.003.000.00--
vs Similar (27)1.041.331.071.141.001.54
vs Weaker (2)2.501.002.000.003.002.00
Clean sheet %27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%015%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.1%
Under 1.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.9%
Under 2.5
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.7%
Under 3.5
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.0%
No
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
1-0
10.2%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.5%
3-0
5.9%
3-1
5.8%
1-2
5.4%
Kilmarnock goals ↓
Ayr Utd goals →
01234
07.5%5.2%3.1%1.0%0.2%
110%12%5.4%1.8%0.4%
210%9.8%4.8%1.6%0.4%
35.9%5.8%2.8%0.9%0.2%
42.6%2.6%1.3%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kilmarnock goals (down), columns = Ayr Utd goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.60
ST Johnstone
2.60
Partick
2.50
Alloa Athletic
2.40
Rangers
2.33
ST Mirren
2.25
Airdrie United
2.25
Dunfermline
2.25
Kilmarnock
2.20
Falkirk
2.00
Motherwell
2.00
Ayr Utd
1.80
Morton
1.80
Celtic
1.75
Cove Rangers
1.75
Ross County
1.75
Inverness CT
1.50
Hibernian
1.50
Dundee
1.50
Aberdeen
1.50
Raith Rovers
1.50
East Kilbride
1.50
Dumbarton
1.50
Spartans
1.50
Livingston
1.50
Queen's Park
1.50
Stranraer
1.25
Clyde
1.25
Forfar
1.00
Arbroath
1.00
Stenhousemuir
1.00
East Fife
1.00
Hamilton Academical
0.75
Montrose
0.75
Queen of the South
0.75
Kelty Hearts
0.33
Annan Athletic
0.25
Edinburgh City
0.25
Dundee Utd
0.00
Brechin
0.00
Elgin
0.00
Stirling
0.00
Peterhead
0.00
Kilmarnock is 0.40 points better than Ayr Utd in terms of average points per game (2.20 vs 1.80).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Heart Of Midlothian
3.40
Raith Rovers
3.25
Falkirk
3.00
ST Johnstone
3.00
Ayr Utd
2.80
ST Mirren
2.75
East Kilbride
2.75
Ross County
2.75
Celtic
2.50
Rangers
2.33
Inverness CT
2.25
Dunfermline
2.25
Queen's Park
2.25
Partick
2.17
Airdrie United
2.00
Dundee
2.00
Morton
2.00
Livingston
2.00
Kilmarnock
1.80
Alloa Athletic
1.80
Aberdeen
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Arbroath
1.50
Montrose
1.50
Motherwell
1.43
Cove Rangers
1.25
Dundee Utd
1.00
Hibernian
1.00
Annan Athletic
1.00
Spartans
1.00
Peterhead
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Hamilton Academical
0.75
Forfar
0.75
Stenhousemuir
0.75
East Fife
0.67
Elgin
0.50
Stranraer
0.50
Dumbarton
0.50
Edinburgh City
0.25
Brechin
0.00
Kelty Hearts
0.00
Stirling
0.00
Kilmarnock is 1.00 goals worse than Ayr Utd in terms of goals scored per game (1.80 vs 2.80).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.40
ST Johnstone
0.40
Aberdeen
0.50
Cove Rangers
0.50
Kilmarnock
0.60
Dundee
0.75
Stranraer
0.75
Airdrie United
1.00
Hibernian
1.00
Rangers
1.00
Falkirk
1.00
Motherwell
1.00
Partick
1.00
Ayr Utd
1.00
Livingston
1.00
Ross County
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
ST Mirren
1.12
Celtic
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Dunfermline
1.25
Alloa Athletic
1.40
Forfar
1.50
Spartans
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.50
Queen's Park
1.50
Morton
1.60
Hamilton Academical
1.75
Dundee Utd
2.00
Inverness CT
2.00
Dumbarton
2.00
Clyde
2.00
East Fife
2.00
Raith Rovers
2.25
Stirling
2.25
Peterhead
2.25
Kelty Hearts
2.33
Montrose
2.50
East Kilbride
3.00
Edinburgh City
4.00
Brechin
4.25
Elgin
4.75
Annan Athletic
5.25
Kilmarnock is 0.40 goals better than Ayr Utd in terms of goals conceded per game (0.60 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Celtic
63%
ST Mirren
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

KilmarnockKilmarnock

For 4.3 · Against 4.2 · Total 8.5

🚩 Corners

120573651631662414856421296978512116H·CELA·ST A·PETH·HAMA·LIVH·DUNA·ST H·DUNA·ABEH·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.4

🟨 Cards

70122111214313141421421374156H·CELA·ST A·PETH·HAMA·LIVH·DUNA·ST H·DUNA·ABEH·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 10.4 · Total 23.3

⚠️ Fouls

3201210136121254101013181111131016162472219249203122233231H·CELA·ST A·PETH·HAMA·LIVH·DUNA·ST H·DUNA·ABEH·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

For 5.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.0

🚩 Corners

1005510H·ALL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.0 · Against 1.0 · Total 1.0

🟨 Cards

1011H·ALL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 9.0 · Total 22.0

⚠️ Fouls

22013922H·ALL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

KilmarnockKilmarnock

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.69.39.93.94.03.724.425.223.5
vs Stronger (13)11.210.711.73.84.13.522.123.720.2
vs Similar (36)8.98.69.24.04.23.826.027.324.9
vs Weaker (1)9.09.0-1.01.0-9.09.0-
% over line50%43%57%60%63%57%71%81%62%
% under line50%57%43%40%37%43%29%19%38%
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.010.0-0.20.10.322.022.0-
vs Stronger (1)---0.00.0----
vs Similar (45)10.010.0-0.20.10.322.022.0-
vs Weaker (4)---0.00.00.0---
% over line100%100%-2%0%4%100%100%-
% under line0%0%-98%100%96%0%0%-
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
ST Mirren
11.2
Ross County
10.9
Stirling
10.9
Morton
10.9
Celtic
10.8
Hibernian
10.6
Dundee Utd
10.5
Hamilton Academical
10.5
Partick
10.4
East Kilbride
10.4
Dumbarton
10.4
Stranraer
10.3
Elgin
10.3
Rangers
10.2
Airdrie United
10.1
Aberdeen
10.1
Brechin
10.1
ST Johnstone
10.0
Alloa Athletic
10.0
Ayr Utd
10.0
Annan Athletic
9.9
Heart Of Midlothian
9.9
Livingston
9.9
Dundee
9.9
Clyde
9.8
East Fife
9.6
Falkirk
9.6
Arbroath
9.6
Kilmarnock
9.5
Kelty Hearts
9.5
Cove Rangers
9.4
Dunfermline
9.3
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.2
Inverness CT
9.1
Forfar
9.1
Queen's Park
9.0
Peterhead
8.9
Stenhousemuir
8.5
Montrose
8.5
Motherwell
8.3
Queen of the South
6.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Edinburgh City
5.1
Peterhead
5.0
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Aberdeen
4.8
Hibernian
4.8
Motherwell
4.7
Morton
4.5
Heart Of Midlothian
4.5
Partick
4.4
Forfar
4.3
Elgin
4.3
Kelty Hearts
4.2
Clyde
4.2
Rangers
4.2
Livingston
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Kilmarnock
4.1
Falkirk
4.1
Spartans
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
ST Johnstone
4.0
Ayr Utd
4.0
Dundee Utd
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Celtic
3.9
Montrose
3.7
Dundee
3.6
Arbroath
3.6
East Fife
3.5
Brechin
3.5
ST Mirren
3.5
Dumbarton
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2
Inverness CT
3.2
Queen of the South
3.0
Raith Rovers
3.0
Hamilton Academical
2.7
Queen's Park
2.5
Alloa Athletic
1.0

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
East Kilbride
26.4
Rangers
26.0
Motherwell
25.9
Aberdeen
25.5
Stenhousemuir
25.4
Livingston
25.3
Falkirk
25.3
Kilmarnock
24.4
Forfar
24.0
Heart Of Midlothian
24.0
Edinburgh City
23.9
Hibernian
23.4
East Fife
22.9
Elgin
22.7
Kelty Hearts
22.5
Stranraer
22.3
Annan Athletic
22.2
Montrose
22.2
ST Johnstone
22.1
Alloa Athletic
22.0
Ayr Utd
22.0
ST Mirren
21.9
Dundee Utd
21.9
Clyde
21.7
Morton
21.6
Inverness CT
21.6
Dundee
21.6
Celtic
21.3
Stirling
21.1
Cove Rangers
21.0
Ross County
21.0
Arbroath
20.9
Dunfermline
20.7
Dumbarton
20.5
Brechin
20.5
Spartans
20.4
Queen of the South
20.0
Airdrie United
20.0
Partick
19.9
Queen's Park
19.0
Hamilton Academical
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
38.9%
Under 9.5
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
35.7%
Under 3.5
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
30.0%
Under 21.5
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kilmarnock or Draw✓ Hit
80.3%
Avg Implied -
55%
26%
20%
covers Kilmarnock + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock or Ayr Utd✓ Hit
74.4%
Avg Implied -
55%
26%
20%
covers Kilmarnock + Ayr Utd
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ayr Utd✗ Miss
45.2%
Avg Implied -
55%
26%
20%
covers Draw + Ayr Utd
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.9%
Under
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
52.8%
Under
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
26.1%
Under
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
62.5%
Under
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
25.7%
Under
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Kilmarnock, so a minus line means Kilmarnock give that many goals of a start and Ayr Utd receive them. At -1, Kilmarnock must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kilmarnock win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kilmarnock)Actual: Ayr Utd
Kilmarnock -2
14.3%
Draw -2
17.2%
Ayr Utd +2
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kilmarnock)Actual: Draw
Kilmarnock -1
31.5%
Draw -1
23.3%
Ayr Utd +1
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kilmarnock)Actual: Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock +1
80.3%
Draw +1
12.4%
Ayr Utd -1
7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kilmarnock)Actual: Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock +2
92.8%
Draw +2
5.3%
Ayr Utd -2
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KilmarnockKilmarnock

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W00D21W00D00D00D00D11D03LH·DUN02/05A·ST 09/05H·DUN12/05A·LIV17/05H·RAI14/07A·ELG18/07H·HAM21/07A·PET25/07A·ST 02/08H·CEL09/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.630.800.470.470.80
vs Stronger (7)0.431.140.601.000.001.50
vs Similar (22)0.730.501.000.220.540.69
vs Weaker (1)0.000.000.000.00--
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D10W01L01L10W00D30W10W11DH·ARB11/04A·ROS18/04A·AIR25/04H·ST 01/05A·STR11/07A·FAL14/07H·EDI18/07H·ALL25/07H·ARB01/08A·DUN08/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.470.620.310.790.64
vs Stronger (1)2.000.002.000.00--
vs Similar (27)0.700.480.570.360.850.62
vs Weaker (2)0.000.500.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KilmarnockKilmarnock

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W20W31W20W00D10W10W00D23L12LH·DUN02/05A·ST 09/05H·DUN12/05A·LIV17/05H·RAI14/07A·ELG18/07H·HAM21/07A·PET25/07A·ST 02/08H·CEL09/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.100.801.070.671.13
vs Stronger (7)0.432.000.401.800.502.50
vs Similar (22)0.820.861.000.780.690.92
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L02L00D31W00D20W11D10W00DH·ARB11/04A·ROS18/04A·AIR25/04H·ST 01/05A·STR11/07A·FAL14/07H·EDI18/07H·ALL25/07H·ARB01/08A·DUN08/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.800.620.690.360.93
vs Stronger (1)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Similar (27)0.330.850.500.790.150.92
vs Weaker (2)2.500.502.000.003.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 7.599.3%-------✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals98.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 6.597.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.593.9%-------✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap92.8%-------✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals92.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls91.5%--------
Under 5.5 cards91.4%--------
Home under 3.5 goals89.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.585.5%-------✗ Miss
Under 23.5 fouls83.0%--------
Home over 0.5 goals82.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners82.0%--------
Under 4.5 cards81.2%--------
Home or Draw80.3%-------✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap80.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.577.1%-------✓ Hit
Home or Away74.4%-------✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals74.3%-------✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals73.9%-------✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners72.7%--------
Under 3.570.3%-------✗ Miss

🎽 13. Player market rates

Kilmarnock
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Greg Kiltie25%
M. Schjønning-Larsen25%
Joe Hugill25%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
J. Brandon0%
G. Stanger0%
E. Ring0%
B. Rice0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joe Hugill50%
B. Rice50%
Tyreece John-Jules25%
J. Brandon25%
Greg Kiltie25%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
G. Stanger0%
M. Schjønning-Larsen0%
E. Ring0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom Lowery50%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
J. Brandon0%
G. Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
M. Schjønning-Larsen0%
E. Ring0%
Joe Hugill0%
B. Rice0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Hugill25%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
J. Brandon0%
G. Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
M. Schjønning-Larsen0%
E. Ring0%
B. Rice0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
KH (4)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Kilmarnock's squad is €5m more valuable than Ayr Utd's (€7m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Kilmarnock's attack is €2m more valuable than Ayr Utd's (€3m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Kilmarnock's midfield is €2m more valuable than Ayr Utd's (€2m vs €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Kilmarnock's defence is €1m more valuable than Ayr Utd's (€3m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
KIL wins
0
Draws
0
AU wins

Head-to-head

Kilmarnock vs Ayr Utd · H/A from KIL
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

KilmarnockKilmarnock

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/08/26HKIL Vs Celtic1-5
02/08/26AST Johnstone Vs KIL4-3
25/07/26APeterhead Vs KIL0-0
21/07/26HKIL Vs Hamilton Academical1-0
18/07/26AElgin Vs KIL0-1
14/07/26HKIL Vs Raith Rovers0-0
17/05/26ALivingston Vs KIL1-4
12/05/26HKIL Vs Dundee3-1
09/05/26AST Mirren Vs KIL0-3
02/05/26HKIL Vs Dundee Utd3-0

Ayr UtdAyr Utd

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/08/26ADunfermline Vs AU1-1
01/08/26HAU Vs Arbroath2-0
25/07/26HAU Vs Alloa Athletic4-1
18/07/26HAU Vs Edinburgh City2-0
14/07/26AFalkirk Vs AU0-1
11/07/26AStranraer Vs AU2-3
01/05/26HAU Vs ST Johnstone0-1
25/04/26AAirdrie United Vs AU2-1
18/04/26ARoss County Vs AU2-1
11/04/26HAU Vs Arbroath1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock
Scotland: League Cup
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDLL1.18
HomeWWDWL1.44
AwayWWWDL0.87
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%41%17%
AVG goals2.962.893.04
Over 1.5 %76%74%78%
Over 2.5 %62%63%61%
Over 3.5 %40%37%43%
Scored1.321.481.13
Conceded1.641.411.91
BTTS52%48%57%
Clean Sheet32%37%26%
Corners9.629.339.90
Cards4.314.544.05
Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
Scotland: League Cup
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWD1.34
HomeWLWWW1.48
AwayLLWWD1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%40%28%
AVG goals2.562.402.72
Over 1.5 %76%72%80%
Over 2.5 %44%40%48%
Over 3.5 %20%16%24%
Scored1.361.401.32
Conceded1.201.001.40
BTTS54%44%64%
Clean Sheet28%32%24%
Corners10.0010.00-
Cards2.751.504.00

🏆 17. League Table

Kilmarnock plays in Scotland - Premiership
RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1CelticCeltic412
100%
3.0
112+9
3.2
75%
75%
25%
13.5
75%
2.5
25%
19.0
25%
116
5620412.80.5
66%
2ST MirrenST Mirren410
75%
2.5
73+4
2.5
50%
25%
25%
11.2
75%
3.8
75%
26.5
75%
8
1331.80.8
46%
3Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian49
75%
2.2
104+6
3.5
100%
100%
50%
11.5
75%
4.0
67%
24.8
100%
22
12462.51.0
53%
4MotherwellMotherwell48
50%
2.0
84+4
3.0
75%
75%
25%
10.2
75%
3.5
75%
25.0
75%
16
10152.01.0
58%
5DundeeDundee57
40%
1.4
64+2
2.0
80%
20%
0%
9.6
40%
3.4
40%
22.2
60%
5
1221.20.8
44%
6RangersRangers47
50%
1.8
54+1
2.2
75%
50%
0%
12.0
100%
4.5
50%
29.8
100%
136
3844541.21.0
58%
7HibernianHibernian46
50%
1.5
67-1
3.2
100%
100%
25%
11.0
75%
3.0
50%
24.5
100%
20
7851.51.8
47%
8ST JohnstoneST Johnstone44
25%
1.0
67-1
3.2
75%
50%
25%
8.8
25%
3.0
33%
23.2
50%
5
2121.51.8
-
9Dundee UtdDundee Utd54
20%
0.8
510-5
3.0
100%
60%
40%
11.0
60%
4.4
60%
22.2
80%
11
4341.02.0
42%
10AberdeenAberdeen43
25%
0.8
27-5
2.2
75%
50%
0%
12.8
75%
5.0
75%
25.2
50%
15
4470.51.8
48%
11FalkirkFalkirk41
0%
0.2
26-4
2.0
75%
50%
0%
9.5
50%
4.0
75%
29.8
75%
6
2130.51.5
51%
12KilmarnockKilmarnock40
0%
0.0
414-10
4.5
75%
75%
75%
9.8
50%
3.8
75%
22.2
75%
7
3231.03.5
42%
Scotland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
Ayr Utd plays in Scotland - Championship
RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1StenhousemuirStenhousemuir410
75%
2.5
82+6
2.5
100%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.5
-
2PartickPartick48
50%
2.0
41+3
1.2
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.00.2
-
3Raith RoversRaith Rovers47
50%
1.8
53+2
2.0
75%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1101.20.8
-
4ArbroathArbroath47
50%
1.8
33+0
1.5
50%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.80.8
-
5LivingstonLivingston46
50%
1.5
43+1
1.8
75%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.00.8
-
6Ayr UtdAyr Utd45
25%
1.2
44+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.0
-
7DunfermlineDunfermline45
25%
1.2
23-1
1.2
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2020.50.8
-
8Inverness CTInverness CT43
0%
0.8
24-2
1.5
50%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.51.0
-
9MortonMorton41
0%
0.2
26-4
2.0
75%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.51.5
-
10QueenQueen's Park41
0%
0.2
16-5
1.8
75%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.21.5
-
Scotland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →

← all matches