This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.40
0.80
2.44
0.62
2.36
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (28)
2.57
0.75
2.60
0.53
2.54
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.4%
Under 1.5
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.8%
@ 1.66+2.6%
Under 2.5
40.2%
@ 2.22-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.5%
Under 3.5
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.1%
No
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
10.8%
1-1
9.9%
1-2
9.8%
0-1
9.0%
0-3
7.8%
1-3
7.2%
0-0
5.4%
2-2
4.5%
Kilmarnock goals ↓
Celtic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
9.0%
11%
7.8%
4.3%
1
3.2%
9.9%
9.8%
7.2%
3.9%
2
1.9%
4.1%
4.5%
3.3%
1.8%
3
0.6%
1.3%
1.4%
1.0%
0.5%
4
0.1%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kilmarnock goals (down), columns = Celtic goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Rangers
2.68
Celtic
2.03
Hibernian
1.66
Aberdeen
1.47
Livingston
1.18
ST Mirren
1.18
Motherwell
1.18
ST Johnstone
1.18
Dundee Utd
1.16
Ross County
1.03
Kilmarnock
0.95
Hamilton
0.79
Kilmarnock is 1.08 points worse than Celtic in terms of average points per game (0.95 vs 2.03).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.42
Celtic
2.05
Hibernian
1.26
Kilmarnock
1.13
Livingston
1.11
Motherwell
1.03
ST Mirren
0.97
Aberdeen
0.95
ST Johnstone
0.95
Ross County
0.92
Hamilton
0.89
Dundee Utd
0.84
Kilmarnock is 0.92 goals worse than Celtic in terms of goals scored per game (1.13 vs 2.05).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rangers
0.34
Celtic
0.76
Hibernian
0.92
Aberdeen
1.00
ST Mirren
1.18
ST Johnstone
1.21
Dundee Utd
1.32
Livingston
1.42
Kilmarnock
1.42
Motherwell
1.45
Ross County
1.74
Hamilton
1.76
Kilmarnock is 0.66 goals worse than Celtic in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 0.76).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Kilmarnock
For 5.4 · Against 5.5 · Total 10.9
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.9
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 12.1 · Total 24.1
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Celtic
For 6.1 · Against 4.4 · Total 10.5
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.8 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.0
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 9.8 · Total 21.5
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kilmarnock
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.4
10.7
3.4
3.3
3.4
24.4
25.0
23.9
vs Stronger (17)
11.1
10.9
11.2
3.0
3.7
2.5
23.4
25.4
21.9
vs Similar (33)
10.3
10.2
10.4
3.6
3.2
4.0
25.0
24.8
25.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
58%
46%
50%
54%
46%
72%
75%
69%
% under line
48%
42%
54%
50%
46%
54%
28%
25%
31%
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.6
9.7
3.0
2.5
3.5
21.6
20.0
23.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
10.7
12.0
8.0
6.0
5.5
7.0
31.7
30.5
34.0
vs Weaker (47)
10.1
10.5
9.8
2.8
2.2
3.4
20.9
19.1
22.9
% over line
58%
62%
54%
32%
23%
42%
46%
35%
58%
% under line
42%
38%
46%
68%
77%
58%
54%
65%
42%
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dundee Utd
11.0
Ross County
11.0
Rangers
10.8
Hamilton
10.8
Hibernian
10.7
Kilmarnock
10.6
ST Mirren
10.6
Motherwell
10.3
Celtic
10.2
ST Johnstone
9.6
Aberdeen
9.4
Livingston
9.3
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Motherwell
3.6
Dundee Utd
3.4
Ross County
3.4
Kilmarnock
3.4
ST Johnstone
3.4
Rangers
3.4
Hibernian
3.2
ST Mirren
3.1
Livingston
3.1
Hamilton
3.0
Celtic
3.0
Aberdeen
2.8
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.5
ST Johnstone
25.1
Motherwell
24.8
Hibernian
24.7
Ross County
24.7
Hamilton
24.6
Kilmarnock
24.4
Livingston
24.1
ST Mirren
23.8
Rangers
23.0
Dundee Utd
22.9
Celtic
21.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
56.3%
Under 9.5
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.0%
Under 3.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
73.7%
Under 21.5
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kilmarnock
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
1.00
0.40
1.20
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.40
1.00
0.30
0.40
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.40
1.06
0.38
0.86
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (28)
1.04
0.39
1.13
0.33
0.92
0.46
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kilmarnock
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.80
0.67
0.73
0.27
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
0.70
0.40
0.00
0.00
1.40
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.85
0.80
1.10
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.40
1.38
0.25
1.50
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (28)
1.54
0.36
1.47
0.20
1.62
0.54
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 4.5 cards
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Kilmarnock · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Greg Kiltie25%
M. SchjÃļnning-Larsen25%
Joe Hugill25%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
J. Brandon0%
G. Stanger0%
E. Ring0%
B. Rice0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joe Hugill50%
B. Rice50%
Tyreece John-Jules25%
J. Brandon25%
Greg Kiltie25%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
G. Stanger0%
M. SchjÃļnning-Larsen0%
E. Ring0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom Lowery50%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
J. Brandon0%
G. Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
M. SchjÃļnning-Larsen0%
E. Ring0%
Joe Hugill0%
B. Rice0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Hugill25%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
J. Brandon0%
G. Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
M. SchjÃļnning-Larsen0%
E. Ring0%
B. Rice0%
Celtic · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
B. Nygren67%
C. DurÃĄn50%
Kasper HÃļgh25%
Luke McCowan25%
C. McGregor20%
Yang Hyun-Jun17%
Kieran Tierney0%
J. Forrest0%
C. Carter-Vickers0%
H. Hassan0%
Auston Trusty0%
S. Tounekti0%
L. Scales0%
V. Sinisalo0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luke McCowan25%
C. Carter-Vickers17%
Colby Donovan17%
Kieran Tierney0%
J. Forrest0%
C. McGregor0%
Kasper HÃļgh0%
H. Hassan0%
B. Nygren0%
Auston Trusty0%
S. Tounekti0%
L. Scales0%
V. Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
C. DurÃĄn0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
B. Nygren50%
Kieran Tierney40%
C. DurÃĄn33%
Yang Hyun-Jun17%
J. Forrest0%
C. McGregor0%
Kasper HÃļgh0%
C. Carter-Vickers0%
H. Hassan0%
Luke McCowan0%
Auston Trusty0%
S. Tounekti0%
L. Scales0%
V. Sinisalo0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. DurÃĄn67%
Kasper HÃļgh50%
H. Hassan33%
B. Nygren33%
Kieran Tierney0%
J. Forrest0%
C. McGregor0%
C. Carter-Vickers0%
Luke McCowan0%
Auston Trusty0%
S. Tounekti0%
L. Scales0%
V. Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Kilmarnock's squad is €110m less valuable than Celtic's (€7m vs €116m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Kilmarnock's attack is €53m less valuable than Celtic's (€3m vs €56m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Kilmarnock's midfield is €18m less valuable than Celtic's (€2m vs €20m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Kilmarnock's defence is €38m less valuable than Celtic's (€3m vs €41m).
Scotland: Premiership 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →