This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
3.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.47
0.57
2.60
0.33
2.33
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
2.00
0.67
2.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (27)
2.52
0.56
2.69
0.31
2.36
0.79
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.0%
Under 1.5
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.1%
@ 1.50-6.5%
Under 2.5
43.9%
@ 2.51+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.7%
Under 3.5
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.8%
No
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
11.3%
1-1
10.6%
0-1
10.0%
1-2
9.9%
0-3
7.7%
1-3
6.8%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
4.3%
Kilmarnock goals ↓
Celtic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
10%
11%
7.7%
4.0%
1
3.7%
11%
9.9%
6.8%
3.5%
2
2.0%
4.2%
4.3%
3.0%
1.5%
3
0.6%
1.2%
1.3%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.1%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kilmarnock goals (down), columns = Celtic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.61
Partick
2.50
Rangers
2.42
Aberdeen
1.50
Heart Of Midlothian
1.42
Hibernian
1.37
Motherwell
1.32
Livingston
1.21
ST Mirren
1.21
ST Johnstone
1.13
Kilmarnock
1.05
Ross County
0.93
Dundee Utd
0.82
Queen's Park
0.00
Ayr Utd
0.00
Kilmarnock is 1.55 points worse than Celtic in terms of average points per game (1.05 vs 2.61).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Partick
3.17
Celtic
3.00
Rangers
2.45
Heart Of Midlothian
1.66
Hibernian
1.50
Queen's Park
1.50
Aberdeen
1.47
Motherwell
1.39
ST Mirren
1.13
ST Johnstone
1.08
Dundee Utd
1.05
Ross County
1.00
Kilmarnock
0.97
Livingston
0.95
Ayr Utd
0.00
Kilmarnock is 2.03 goals worse than Celtic in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 3.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.89
Rangers
0.97
Partick
1.00
Motherwell
1.34
Heart Of Midlothian
1.50
Hibernian
1.55
ST Johnstone
1.55
Ross County
1.57
Livingston
1.58
Aberdeen
1.58
ST Mirren
1.61
Kilmarnock
1.63
Dundee Utd
1.84
Queen's Park
4.00
Ayr Utd
4.00
Kilmarnock is 0.74 goals worse than Celtic in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 0.89).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kilmarnock
For 6.0 · Against 4.3 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.6 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 11.8 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Celtic
For 8.5 · Against 3.2 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.7 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 8.3 · Total 19.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kilmarnock
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
10.1
9.2
3.2
3.6
2.8
24.1
24.0
24.2
vs Stronger (2)
13.0
-
13.0
1.0
-
1.0
32.0
-
32.0
vs Similar (40)
9.5
9.8
9.1
3.2
3.4
3.0
23.7
23.8
23.6
vs Weaker (8)
10.0
11.5
8.5
3.8
4.8
2.8
24.8
24.8
24.8
% over line
48%
42%
54%
40%
44%
36%
71%
62%
79%
% under line
52%
58%
46%
60%
56%
64%
29%
38%
21%
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.0
11.9
12.0
2.8
2.4
3.3
21.6
20.8
22.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
11.0
12.0
10.0
4.3
5.3
3.3
23.5
25.3
21.7
vs Weaker (44)
12.1
11.9
12.3
2.6
2.0
3.3
21.3
20.1
22.5
% over line
73%
62%
83%
34%
28%
40%
54%
50%
58%
% under line
27%
38%
17%
66%
72%
60%
46%
50%
42%
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Celtic
11.8
ST Mirren
11.1
Rangers
11.0
Dundee Utd
10.7
Motherwell
10.7
Ross County
10.4
Heart Of Midlothian
10.1
Aberdeen
10.0
ST Johnstone
10.0
Hibernian
9.9
Kilmarnock
9.8
Partick
9.7
Livingston
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Rangers
4.3
Hibernian
4.2
Aberdeen
4.2
Livingston
4.0
Motherwell
4.0
Heart Of Midlothian
3.9
Ross County
3.9
ST Johnstone
3.8
Dundee Utd
3.8
ST Mirren
3.3
Kilmarnock
3.3
Partick
3.2
Celtic
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Motherwell
26.7
Aberdeen
26.6
Livingston
25.1
Hibernian
24.5
Heart Of Midlothian
24.2
Ross County
24.1
ST Johnstone
24.0
Kilmarnock
23.9
ST Mirren
23.0
Dundee Utd
22.7
Rangers
22.3
Celtic
21.8
Partick
20.9
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
66.9%
Under 9.5
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
53.7%
Under 3.5
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
67.7%
Under 21.5
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kilmarnock
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.27
0.73
0.33
0.53
0.20
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.30
0.83
0.33
0.73
0.27
vs Weaker (6)
0.17
0.17
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.20
1.53
0.20
1.40
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
2.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (27)
1.41
0.19
1.46
0.23
1.36
0.14
Clean sheet %
80% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kilmarnock
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.93
0.40
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.48
1.00
0.42
0.73
0.55
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.83
0.67
0.33
0.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.37
1.07
0.13
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (27)
1.11
0.37
1.23
0.08
1.00
0.64
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Kilmarnock
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Danny Armstrong22%
Kyle Vassell21%
Christopher Stokes13%
Ash Taylor12%
Scott Robinson12%
Joe Wright12%
Christian Doidge11%
Liam Donnelly9%
Jeriel Dorsett9%
Kyle Lafferty8%
Innes Cameron6%
Bradley Lyons5%
Liam Polworth4%
Kerr Mcinroy0%
Sam Walker0%
Jordan Jones0%
Alan Power0%
Rory McKenzie0%
Fraser Murray0%
Oli Shaw0%
Blair Alston0%
Lewis Mayo0%
Zachary Hemming0%
Ben Chrisene0%
Jack Sanders0%
Ryan Alebiosu0%
Luke Chambers0%
David Watson0%
Bobby Wales0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Liam Donnelly36%
Rory McKenzie31%
Kyle Lafferty25%
Danny Armstrong22%
David Watson20%
Ash Taylor19%
Alan Power16%
Christian Doidge15%
Joe Wright15%
Kyle Vassell14%
Jordan Jones14%
Innes Cameron12%
Bradley Lyons11%
Oli Shaw8%
Ben Chrisene8%
Luke Chambers7%
Christopher Stokes7%
Lewis Mayo6%
Fraser Murray5%
Liam Polworth4%
Sam Walker4%
Kerr Mcinroy0%
Blair Alston0%
Scott Robinson0%
Zachary Hemming0%
Jack Sanders0%
Jeriel Dorsett0%
Ryan Alebiosu0%
Bobby Wales0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Danny Armstrong16%
Kyle Vassell14%
Christian Doidge11%
Ash Taylor9%
Liam Polworth8%
Luke Chambers7%
Innes Cameron6%
Jordan Jones5%
Lewis Mayo3%
Rory McKenzie3%
Kerr Mcinroy0%
Kyle Lafferty0%
Christopher Stokes0%
Sam Walker0%
Joe Wright0%
Alan Power0%
Fraser Murray0%
Oli Shaw0%
Blair Alston0%
Liam Donnelly0%
Scott Robinson0%
Bradley Lyons0%
Zachary Hemming0%
Ben Chrisene0%
Jack Sanders0%
Jeriel Dorsett0%
Ryan Alebiosu0%
David Watson0%
Bobby Wales0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kyle Vassell36%
Oli Shaw25%
Kerr Mcinroy17%
Danny Armstrong16%
Christian Doidge15%
Joe Wright9%
Kyle Lafferty8%
Liam Donnelly5%
Liam Polworth4%
Ash Taylor3%
Rory McKenzie3%
Christopher Stokes0%
Sam Walker0%
Jordan Jones0%
Alan Power0%
Fraser Murray0%
Blair Alston0%
Scott Robinson0%
Bradley Lyons0%
Innes Cameron0%
Lewis Mayo0%
Zachary Hemming0%
Ben Chrisene0%
Jack Sanders0%
Jeriel Dorsett0%
Ryan Alebiosu0%
Luke Chambers0%
David Watson0%
Bobby Wales0%
Celtic
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kyogo Furuhashi50%
Jota35%
Hyun-gyu Oh31%
Giorgos Giakoumakis24%
Stephen Welsh20%
Daizen Maeda20%
Liel Abada18%
Sead Hakšabanović12%
David Turnbull12%
Callum McGregor12%
Moritz Jenz12%
James Forrest11%
Reo Hatate11%
Carl Starfelt10%
Aaron Mooy9%
Greg Taylor8%
Alistair Johnston7%
Josip Juranović6%
Alexandro Bernabei6%
Matt O'Riley5%
Anthony Ralston0%
Oliver Abildgaard0%
James McCarthy0%
Joe Hart0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Tomoki Iwata0%
Yuki Kobayashi0%
Rocco Vata0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Stephen Welsh40%
Moritz Jenz29%
Cameron Carter-Vickers15%
Anthony Ralston12%
Hyun-gyu Oh12%
Alexandro Bernabei12%
Matt O'Riley11%
Carl Starfelt10%
Daizen Maeda10%
Kyogo Furuhashi10%
Callum McGregor9%
Greg Taylor8%
Giorgos Giakoumakis8%
Alistair Johnston7%
Josip Juranović6%
Aaron Mooy6%
Liel Abada5%
Sead Hakšabanović3%
David Turnbull3%
Jota3%
Reo Hatate3%
James Forrest0%
Oliver Abildgaard0%
James McCarthy0%
Joe Hart0%
Tomoki Iwata0%
Yuki Kobayashi0%
Rocco Vata0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jota24%
Aaron Mooy24%
Matt O'Riley23%
Alexandro Bernabei19%
Reo Hatate18%
David Turnbull15%
Liel Abada13%
Greg Taylor11%
James Forrest11%
Daizen Maeda10%
Tomoki Iwata8%
Kyogo Furuhashi7%
Alistair Johnston7%
Anthony Ralston6%
Josip Juranović6%
Sead Hakšabanović6%
Giorgos Giakoumakis4%
Carl Starfelt3%
Callum McGregor3%
Oliver Abildgaard0%
James McCarthy0%
Joe Hart0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Yuki Kobayashi0%
Hyun-gyu Oh0%
Stephen Welsh0%
Moritz Jenz0%
Rocco Vata0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Giorgos Giakoumakis36%
Kyogo Furuhashi31%
Jota30%
Hyun-gyu Oh19%
Matt O'Riley16%
Reo Hatate16%
Liel Abada15%
James Forrest11%
Daizen Maeda10%
Josip Juranović6%
Sead Hakšabanović6%
Callum McGregor3%
Aaron Mooy3%
Anthony Ralston0%
Oliver Abildgaard0%
James McCarthy0%
Joe Hart0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Tomoki Iwata0%
Yuki Kobayashi0%
Greg Taylor0%
David Turnbull0%
Carl Starfelt0%
Stephen Welsh0%
Alistair Johnston0%
Alexandro Bernabei0%
Moritz Jenz0%
Rocco Vata0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
Kilmarnock's squad is €110m less valuable than Celtic's (€7m vs €116m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Kilmarnock's attack is €53m less valuable than Celtic's (€3m vs €56m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
Kilmarnock's midfield is €18m less valuable than Celtic's (€2m vs €20m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Kilmarnock's defence is €38m less valuable than Celtic's (€3m vs €41m).
Scotland: Premiership 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Rangers
Aberdeen
Heart Of Midlothian
Hibernian
Motherwell
ST Mirren
Livingston
ST Johnstone
Ross County
Dundee Utd
Partick
Queen's Park
Ayr Utd