This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.00
0.93
3.35
0.76
2.54
1.15
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
2.00
2.00
2.67
0.67
1.33
3.33
vs Weaker (24)
3.25
0.67
3.50
0.79
2.90
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.0%
Under 1.5
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
64.4%
@ 1.48+1.2%
Under 2.5
35.6%
@ 2.54-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.3%
Under 3.5
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.4%
No
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2 ✓
12.2%
0-3
10.5%
1-2
8.8%
0-1
8.7%
1-3
7.6%
1-1
7.5%
0-4
6.8%
1-4
5.0%
Kilmarnock goals ↓
Celtic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.3%
8.7%
12%
11%
6.8%
1
2.0%
7.5%
8.8%
7.6%
5.0%
2
1.0%
2.5%
3.2%
2.8%
1.8%
3
0.2%
0.6%
0.8%
0.7%
0.4%
4
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kilmarnock goals (down), columns = Celtic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Livingston
2.50
Celtic
2.42
Rangers
1.97
Hibernian
1.53
Ayr Utd
1.50
Aberdeen
1.39
Dundee Utd
1.39
Heart Of Midlothian
1.37
ST Mirren
1.32
Motherwell
1.29
Kilmarnock
1.16
Dundee
1.08
Ross County
0.95
ST Johnstone
0.84
Partick
0.75
Kilmarnock is 1.26 points worse than Celtic in terms of average points per game (1.16 vs 2.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.95
Livingston
2.25
Rangers
2.11
Hibernian
1.63
Dundee
1.50
ST Mirren
1.39
Heart Of Midlothian
1.37
Aberdeen
1.26
Motherwell
1.21
Kilmarnock
1.18
Dundee Utd
1.18
Ross County
1.00
ST Johnstone
1.00
Partick
0.50
Ayr Utd
0.50
Kilmarnock is 1.76 goals worse than Celtic in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 2.95).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.68
Livingston
0.75
Ayr Utd
1.00
Rangers
1.08
Heart Of Midlothian
1.24
Partick
1.25
Hibernian
1.32
Dundee Utd
1.42
ST Mirren
1.55
Aberdeen
1.61
Motherwell
1.66
Kilmarnock
1.68
Ross County
1.75
ST Johnstone
1.79
Dundee
2.03
Kilmarnock is 1.00 goals worse than Celtic in terms of goals conceded per game (1.68 vs 0.68).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
74%
Rangers
63%
Heart Of Midlothian
54%
Aberdeen
53%
ST Johnstone
53%
Hibernian
45%
Dundee
44%
Dundee Utd
44%
Kilmarnock
44%
ST Mirren
42%
Motherwell
42%
Ross County
40%
Kilmarnock is 30.8 percentage points worse than Celtic in terms of average possession (44% vs 74%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kilmarnock
For 4.6 · Against 6.2 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 13.5 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Celtic
For 8.8 · Against 4.1 · Total 12.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 10.8 · Total 20.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kilmarnock
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
10.3
11.8
3.9
3.6
4.1
22.5
23.8
21.5
vs Stronger (20)
12.3
11.2
13.2
3.9
3.3
4.4
21.5
23.8
19.5
vs Similar (30)
10.3
9.6
10.8
3.9
3.8
3.9
23.3
23.8
22.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
72%
67%
76%
58%
48%
67%
54%
62%
48%
% under line
28%
33%
24%
42%
52%
33%
46%
38%
52%
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.7
13.4
12.1
3.3
3.6
3.1
19.8
20.1
19.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
10.9
11.5
10.2
5.4
6.7
3.8
23.1
24.5
21.4
vs Weaker (39)
13.3
14.0
12.6
2.8
2.7
2.9
18.8
18.6
18.9
% over line
79%
83%
74%
42%
44%
39%
28%
29%
26%
% under line
21%
17%
26%
58%
56%
61%
72%
71%
74%
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Celtic
12.5
Heart Of Midlothian
11.3
Kilmarnock
11.0
Dundee
11.0
Motherwell
11.0
Dundee Utd
10.9
Rangers
10.9
Ross County
10.8
ST Mirren
10.5
Aberdeen
10.5
ST Johnstone
10.4
Hibernian
10.3
Partick
10.0
Livingston
9.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Rangers
4.5
Motherwell
4.4
Heart Of Midlothian
4.3
Aberdeen
4.3
Dundee Utd
4.3
Kilmarnock
4.2
Hibernian
4.2
Dundee
4.2
ST Johnstone
4.1
Ross County
3.9
Livingston
3.9
Celtic
3.7
ST Mirren
3.7
Partick
3.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
24.2
Livingston
23.9
Kilmarnock
22.5
ST Johnstone
22.2
Motherwell
22.1
Rangers
22.1
Ross County
22.0
Heart Of Midlothian
21.9
ST Mirren
21.8
Dundee Utd
21.6
Hibernian
21.3
Dundee
20.1
Celtic
19.9
Partick
19.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
65.3%
Under 9.5
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
52.1%
Under 3.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
49.2%
Under 21.5
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kilmarnock
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.70
0.31
0.62
0.59
0.76
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
0.62
0.43
0.43
0.33
0.83
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.76
0.17
0.83
0.73
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.50
1.71
0.41
1.15
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.50
1.17
2.00
0.67
1.00
1.67
vs Weaker (24)
1.46
0.33
1.64
0.36
1.20
0.30
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kilmarnock
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.87
1.08
0.92
0.53
0.82
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.15
0.43
1.14
0.50
1.17
vs Similar (17)
1.00
0.65
1.83
0.67
0.55
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celtic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
0.43
1.65
0.35
1.38
0.54
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.83
0.67
0.00
0.33
1.67
vs Weaker (24)
1.79
0.33
1.86
0.43
1.70
0.20
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celtic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away win
76.8%
1.30
-
-
-
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Kilmarnock
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bruce Anderson33%
Marley Watkins15%
Matthew Kennedy14%
Fraser Murray12%
Bobby Wales10%
Danny Armstrong9%
David Watson8%
Kyle Vassell8%
Liam Polworth7%
Joe Wright7%
Innes Cameron5%
Liam Donnelly4%
Bradley Lyons3%
Robbie Deas3%
Corrie Ndaba3%
Kieran O'Hara0%
Jack Burroughs0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Rory McKenzie0%
Gary Mackay-Steven0%
Kyle Magennis0%
Robby McCrorie0%
Lewis Mayo0%
Calvin Ramsay0%
Oliver Bainbridge0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Oliver Bainbridge29%
Danny Armstrong26%
Kyle Magennis25%
Joe Wright23%
Liam Donnelly22%
Matthew Kennedy19%
Bradley Lyons15%
Robbie Deas15%
Corrie Ndaba14%
Fraser Murray12%
Liam Polworth11%
David Watson11%
Marley Watkins9%
Bobby Wales7%
Lewis Mayo5%
Kieran O'Hara5%
Kyle Vassell4%
Bruce Anderson3%
Jack Burroughs0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Rory McKenzie0%
Gary Mackay-Steven0%
Robby McCrorie0%
Innes Cameron0%
Calvin Ramsay0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Danny Armstrong23%
Joe Wright10%
Gary Mackay-Steven9%
Liam Donnelly7%
Bobby Wales7%
Fraser Murray6%
Matthew Kennedy5%
Innes Cameron5%
Kyle Vassell4%
Bruce Anderson3%
Marley Watkins3%
Bradley Lyons3%
Corrie Ndaba3%
David Watson3%
Lewis Mayo3%
Kieran O'Hara0%
Jack Burroughs0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Rory McKenzie0%
Kyle Magennis0%
Liam Polworth0%
Robby McCrorie0%
Robbie Deas0%
Calvin Ramsay0%
Oliver Bainbridge0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bruce Anderson13%
Kyle Vassell12%
Bobby Wales10%
Matthew Kennedy10%
Fraser Murray9%
Bradley Lyons9%
Danny Armstrong6%
Stuart Findlay5%
Joe Wright3%
Marley Watkins3%
Corrie Ndaba3%
David Watson3%
Kieran O'Hara0%
Jack Burroughs0%
Rory McKenzie0%
Gary Mackay-Steven0%
Liam Donnelly0%
Kyle Magennis0%
Liam Polworth0%
Robby McCrorie0%
Innes Cameron0%
Lewis Mayo0%
Robbie Deas0%
Calvin Ramsay0%
Oliver Bainbridge0%
Celtic
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Daizen Maeda40%
Maik Nawrocki33%
Nicolas-Gerrit Kühn31%
Jota31%
Adam Idah29%
Kyogo Furuhashi28%
Reo Hatate21%
Arne Engels20%
Callum McGregor18%
Luke McCowan17%
Yang Hyun-Jun14%
Johnny Kenny12%
Anthony Ralston11%
Alistair Johnston10%
Liam Scales9%
Jeffrey Schlupp7%
Paulo Bernardo6%
James Forrest4%
Auston Trusty3%
Cameron Carter-Vickers3%
Kasper Schmeichel0%
Luis Palma0%
Greg Taylor0%
Odin Thiago Holm0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Álex Valle0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Greg Taylor17%
Nicolas-Gerrit Kühn14%
Johnny Kenny12%
Alistair Johnston12%
Daizen Maeda9%
Paulo Bernardo8%
Callum McGregor7%
Reo Hatate6%
Auston Trusty6%
Liam Scales6%
Álex Valle6%
Anthony Ralston5%
Arne Engels5%
Yang Hyun-Jun3%
Cameron Carter-Vickers3%
Kasper Schmeichel2%
Adam Idah2%
Jota0%
James Forrest0%
Jeffrey Schlupp0%
Luis Palma0%
Kyogo Furuhashi0%
Luke McCowan0%
Odin Thiago Holm0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Maik Nawrocki0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Álex Valle25%
Alistair Johnston24%
James Forrest22%
Greg Taylor22%
Nicolas-Gerrit Kühn21%
Daizen Maeda19%
Arne Engels18%
Anthony Ralston16%
Jota15%
Reo Hatate13%
Johnny Kenny12%
Luke McCowan11%
Kyogo Furuhashi10%
Yang Hyun-Jun10%
Liam Scales9%
Paulo Bernardo8%
Callum McGregor7%
Jeffrey Schlupp7%
Auston Trusty3%
Kasper Schmeichel0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Luis Palma0%
Adam Idah0%
Odin Thiago Holm0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Maik Nawrocki0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kyogo Furuhashi31%
Adam Idah29%
Arne Engels23%
Daizen Maeda21%
Reo Hatate19%
Jota15%
Nicolas-Gerrit Kühn14%
Johnny Kenny12%
Luis Palma10%
Luke McCowan6%
James Forrest4%
Yang Hyun-Jun3%
Auston Trusty3%
Liam Scales3%
Paulo Bernardo3%
Callum McGregor2%
Anthony Ralston0%
Kasper Schmeichel0%
Jeffrey Schlupp0%
Cameron Carter-Vickers0%
Greg Taylor0%
Alistair Johnston0%
Odin Thiago Holm0%
Viljami Sinisalo0%
Maik Nawrocki0%
Álex Valle0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
Kilmarnock's squad is €110m less valuable than Celtic's (€7m vs €116m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Kilmarnock's attack is €53m less valuable than Celtic's (€3m vs €56m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Kilmarnock's midfield is €18m less valuable than Celtic's (€2m vs €20m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Kilmarnock's defence is €38m less valuable than Celtic's (€3m vs €41m).
Scotland: Premiership 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Rangers
Hibernian
Dundee Utd
Aberdeen
Heart Of Midlothian
ST Mirren
Motherwell
Dundee
Ross County
ST Johnstone
Livingston
Ayr Utd
Partick