Kilmarnock and Dundee face off in a tightly balanced encounter, with the model favouring a home win at 37%. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly low-scoring match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.3% chance. Kilmarnock’s home form shows they average 1.11 goals for and 1.56 against against similarly strong opposition, while Dundee’s away record is 1.38 for and 1.62 against the same tier. The model’s picks include Under 5.5 cards (83.6%), Over 19.5 fouls (81.2%), Under 3.5 goals (77.7%), Over 8.5 corners (70.8%), Over 2.5 cards (70.7% miss) and Over 1.5 goals (70.7% miss). Home win probability is 37%, draw 30%, and away win 33%. Both sides have recently struggled, each coming off a defeat, which adds to the uncertainty of the outcome.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Dundee snatched a 1-0 victory, extending their winless run to five games after a 0-4 defeat to Kilmarnock. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was given a 37% probability, but the model’s call was wrong. The match saw the model’s selections largely hit: Under 5.5 cards at 83.6% was correct, Over 19.5 fouls at 81.2% also hit, Under 3.5 at 77.7% was right, and Over 8.5 corners at 70.8% came through. However, Over 2.5 cards at 70.7% and Over 1.5 at 70.7% missed. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the away win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kilmarnock win✗ Miss
36.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dundee win✓ Hit
33.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kilmarnock
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.43
0.93
1.14
0.94
1.69
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
2.12
0.50
0.25
0.50
4.00
vs Similar (19)
1.11
1.21
1.11
1.56
1.10
0.90
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.70
1.07
1.60
1.00
1.80
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
2.27
1.17
2.67
0.20
1.80
vs Similar (16)
1.12
1.25
0.88
0.88
1.38
1.62
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
2.00
2.00
1.00
1.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.7%
Under 1.5
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.3%
Under 2.5
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.3%
Under 3.5
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.3%
No
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-0
10.3%
1-0
9.8%
0-1 ✓
9.2%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
6.9%
0-2
6.2%
Kilmarnock goals ↓
Dundee goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
9.2%
6.2%
2.4%
0.7%
1
9.8%
14%
7.6%
3.0%
0.9%
2
6.9%
8.1%
4.7%
1.8%
0.5%
3
2.8%
3.3%
1.9%
0.8%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kilmarnock goals (down), columns = Dundee goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.79
Aberdeen
2.00
Rangers
1.76
ST Johnstone
1.53
Ross County
1.21
Heart Of Midlothian
1.21
Partick
1.11
Kilmarnock
1.08
Motherwell
1.00
Dundee
0.97
Hamilton
0.92
Inverness CT
0.89
Kilmarnock is 0.11 points better than Dundee in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 0.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.79
Aberdeen
1.95
Rangers
1.47
Heart Of Midlothian
1.45
ST Johnstone
1.32
Ross County
1.26
Motherwell
1.21
Inverness CT
1.16
Dundee
1.00
Partick
1.00
Hamilton
0.97
Kilmarnock
0.95
Kilmarnock is 0.05 goals worse than Dundee in terms of goals scored per game (0.95 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.66
Aberdeen
0.92
Rangers
1.16
ST Johnstone
1.21
Heart Of Midlothian
1.37
Partick
1.42
Kilmarnock
1.47
Hamilton
1.47
Ross County
1.53
Dundee
1.63
Motherwell
1.82
Inverness CT
1.87
Kilmarnock is 0.16 goals better than Dundee in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.63).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kilmarnock
For 4.7 · Against 6.2 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 11.9 · Total 22.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dundee
For 4.4 · Against 6.6 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 10.5 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kilmarnock
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.4
11.2
3.7
3.9
3.6
23.6
23.7
23.5
vs Stronger (11)
10.9
11.0
10.8
3.8
4.7
2.8
23.6
25.3
21.6
vs Similar (34)
10.9
10.4
11.3
3.8
3.6
3.9
23.1
22.3
23.9
vs Weaker (5)
10.0
8.0
11.3
3.4
4.0
3.0
26.6
30.0
24.3
% over line
60%
62%
58%
60%
67%
54%
62%
62%
62%
% under line
40%
38%
42%
40%
33%
46%
38%
38%
38%
This opponent (Dundee) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.3
11.6
11.0
3.8
4.0
3.5
22.8
22.2
23.5
vs Stronger (16)
12.8
12.1
13.7
3.0
3.6
2.3
21.1
20.8
21.4
vs Similar (29)
10.7
11.7
9.7
4.1
4.1
4.0
23.6
22.9
24.3
vs Weaker (5)
10.0
8.5
11.0
4.4
5.5
3.7
23.8
22.5
24.7
% over line
68%
69%
67%
48%
50%
46%
52%
46%
58%
% under line
32%
31%
33%
52%
50%
54%
48%
54%
42%
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rangers
12.4
Dundee
11.3
Ross County
10.9
Motherwell
10.8
Kilmarnock
10.8
Hamilton
10.4
Heart Of Midlothian
10.2
Aberdeen
10.0
ST Johnstone
9.9
Inverness CT
9.7
Celtic
9.5
Partick
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Rangers
4.7
Heart Of Midlothian
4.1
Hamilton
4.1
Aberdeen
4.0
Celtic
3.9
ST Johnstone
3.8
Ross County
3.8
Dundee
3.8
Kilmarnock
3.7
Motherwell
3.6
Inverness CT
3.6
Partick
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
26.0
Inverness CT
25.8
Rangers
25.6
Hamilton
24.9
Ross County
24.9
ST Johnstone
24.5
Aberdeen
24.3
Kilmarnock
23.6
Motherwell
23.2
Dundee
22.8
Celtic
22.7
Partick
22.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.8%
Under 9.5
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.7%
Under 3.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
67.6%
Under 21.5
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kilmarnock
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.43
0.43
0.56
0.88
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.00
0.25
0.25
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.58
0.56
0.56
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
1.00
0.50
1.17
0.00
0.80
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.75
0.62
0.62
0.88
0.88
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kilmarnock
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.50
0.71
0.38
0.81
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.12
0.25
0.00
0.25
2.25
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.63
0.56
1.00
0.50
0.30
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.87
0.47
0.80
0.40
0.93
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
1.27
0.67
1.50
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.50
0.25
0.25
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Kilmarnock · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Greg Kiltie33%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen33%
Joe Hugill33%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
Max Stryjek0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Bailey Rice0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joe Hugill67%
Tyreece John-Jules33%
Jamie Brandon33%
Bailey Rice33%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
Max Stryjek0%
George Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom Lowery67%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Max Stryjek0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
Joe Hugill0%
Bailey Rice0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Hugill33%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
Max Stryjek0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
Bailey Rice0%
Dundee · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joe Westley50%
Drey Wright25%
Owen Bevan25%
Joe Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Alan Forrest0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ethan Hamilton25%
Drey Wright25%
Ryan Finnigan25%
Joe Westley25%
Owen Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Alan Forrest0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Owen Goodman0%
Joe Bevan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alan Forrest25%
Joe Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Drey Wright0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
Joe Westley0%
Owen Bevan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Bevan25%
Brad Halliday0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Drey Wright0%
Alan Forrest0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Charlie Reilly0%
Ryan Astley0%
Idris Odutayo0%
Ryan Finnigan0%
Owen Goodman0%
Joe Westley0%
Owen Bevan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
KIL (24)
€7m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
PAR (20)
€3m
RC (11)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
Kilmarnock's squad is €1m more valuable than Dundee's (€7m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
ABE (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
IC (3)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
Kilmarnock's attack is €1m more valuable than Dundee's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
Kilmarnock and Dundee have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
PAR (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
IC (1)
€0m
Kilmarnock and Dundee have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Scotland: Premiership 2016/17 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Aberdeen
Rangers
ST Johnstone
Heart Of Midlothian
Ross County
Partick
Motherwell
Inverness CT