Kilmarnock vs Dundee Result & Analysis

The encounter between Kilmarnock and Dundee is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but leaving the outcome far from settled. The predicted probabilities are 41% for a Kilmarnock victory, 29% for a draw, and 30% for a Dundee win, making the home win the single most likely result. The expected total of goals sits at 2.5, with the most probable total being two goals at 27% of all outcomes. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, carrying a 14% chance.

Kilmarnock, playing at home against a team of similar strength, averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Dundee, on the road, averages 1.11 goals scored and 2.0 conceded against comparable opposition. Both sides have struggled recently, each coming off defeats in their last matches.

The model’s suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 85%, Under 5.5 cards at 84.1%, Under 3.5 goals at 75.5%, Over 21.5 fouls at 72.9%, Over 1.5 goals at 72.8%, Under 4.5 cards at 70.3%, and Over 2.5 cards at 70.1%. Each selection is presented with its probability and marked as a hit.

The pre-match favourite, Kilmarnock, failed to deliver as the match finished 1-1, a draw that extended Dundee’s recent form of LWLWL. The model had tipped a home win with a 41% probability, but that call proved wrong. The final score of 1-1 matched the expected total of 2.5, with the most likely outcome 1-1 at 14%. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 85%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 84.1%, Under 3.5 hit at 75.5%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 72.9%, Over 1.5 hit at 72.8%, Under 4.5 cards hit at 70.3%, and Over 2.5 cards hit at 70.1%. All seven picks settled as predicted.