Kilmarnock vs Dundee Result & Analysis

The match sits on a razor-thin edge, with the model favouring a home win at 39%. A draw is the next most likely outcome at 30%, while the away side has a 32% chance of triumph. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 14.1% chance. Kilmarnock, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.56 conceded. Dundee, on the road, averages 1.3 goals scored and 1.4 conceded against comparable opposition. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 87.9%, Under 5.5 cards at 80.5%, Over 21.5 fouls at 77.2%, Under 3.5 at 76.1%, Over 2.5 cards at 74.2%, Over 1.5 at 72.3%, and Under 11.5 corners at 71.4%. Each pick is listed with its probability, and the edge percentages are noted where supplied.

The model’s prediction proved accurate as Kilmarnock secured a 3-2 home win, extending their recent form after a heavy defeat. The pre-match favourite was a Home win at 39%, and the model’s call was correct. The suggested selections were largely fulfilled: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 87.9%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 77.2%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 74.2%, Over 1.5 hit at 72.3%, and Under 11.5 corners hit at 71.4%. The other picks missed: Under 5.5 cards at 80.5% and Under 3.5 at 76.1%. The match confirmed the model’s overall assessment and most of its detailed predictions.