Kilmarnock are the favoured side, with a 48% chance of victory, a 28% chance of a draw and a 25% chance of a Dundee win. The model expects 2.6 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.3% probability. Kilmarnock, playing at home against a similarly strong opponent, average 1.5 goals scored and 1.08 conceded, while Dundee, on the road against a similar side, average 0.89 scored and 1.11 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.7%), Under 5.5 (95.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (90.8%), Home +2 handicap (90.3%) and Over 19.5 fouls (88.5%). The last five games for Kilmarnock show a loss, win, loss, loss, draw, and they are coming off a 0-4 defeat to Dundee Utd, while Dundee’s recent form is loss, win, loss, win, loss, following a 1-2 loss to Hibernian.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Dundee overturned Kilmarnock’s home advantage, winning 2-1 and ending the visitors’ run of defeats. The pre-match favourite was the model’s Home win call, given a 48% probability, but the prediction proved wrong. The model’s other selections all hit: Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.7%), Under 5.5 (95.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (90.8%) and Home +2 handicap (90.3%). The match saw a total of three goals, matching the most likely 2-goal outcome, and the final score of 1-2 confirmed the away win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kilmarnock win✗ Miss
47.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dundee win✓ Hit
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kilmarnock
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.60
1.18
1.47
0.92
1.77
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
2.44
0.40
2.40
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (21)
1.24
1.24
1.50
1.08
0.89
1.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.43
1.40
1.33
0.80
1.53
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
2.10
0.80
1.80
0.20
2.40
vs Similar (19)
1.32
1.11
1.70
1.10
0.89
1.11
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.8%
Under 1.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.6%
Under 2.5
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.8%
Under 3.5
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.8%
No
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
8.8%
0-0
8.5%
0-1
6.5%
1-2 ✓
6.4%
2-2
5.0%
Kilmarnock goals ↓
Dundee goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
6.5%
4.1%
1.5%
0.4%
1
10%
13%
6.4%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.8%
9.4%
5.0%
1.8%
0.5%
3
4.6%
4.9%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.8%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kilmarnock goals (down), columns = Dundee goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Clachnacuddin
3.00
Formartine United
3.00
Cumnock Juniors
3.00
Celtic
2.60
Musselburgh Athletic
2.40
Clydebank
2.40
Jeanfield Swifts
2.33
Cowdenbeath
2.33
Bo'ness Athletic
2.25
ST Johnstone
2.25
Aberdeen
2.20
ST Mirren
2.00
Banks O' Dee
2.00
Turriff United
2.00
Lochee United
2.00
Camelon Juniors
2.00
Dundonald Bluebell
2.00
Sauchie Juniors
2.00
Threave Rovers
2.00
Auchinleck Talbot
2.00
Airdrie United
2.00
Heart Of Midlothian
2.00
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
2.00
Bo'ness United
2.00
Hibernian
2.00
Falkirk
2.00
Dundee
2.00
Dunfermline
2.00
Ayr Utd
2.00
Hamilton Academical
2.00
Montrose
2.00
Cove Rangers
2.00
East Kilbride
2.00
Stranraer
2.00
Stirling
2.00
Buckie Thistle
2.00
Dundee North End
1.75
Brechin
1.75
Broxburn Athletic
1.75
Fraserburgh
1.75
Dunbar United
1.50
Carluke Rovers
1.50
Dalkeith Thistle
1.50
Civil Service Strollers
1.50
Caledonian Braves
1.50
Vale of Leithen
1.50
Whitehill Welfare
1.50
Rutherglen Glencairn
1.50
Darvel
1.50
Culter
1.50
Berwick Rangers
1.50
Dumbarton
1.50
Rangers
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.50
Peterhead
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Girvan
1.50
Burntisland Shipyard
1.50
Newtongrange Star
1.50
Tynecastle
1.50
Livingston
1.33
Elgin
1.33
Forfar
1.33
Queen's Park
1.25
Tweedmouth
1.03
Lossiemouth
1.03
Johnstone Burgh
1.03
St Cadoc's
1.03
Inverurie Loco Works
1.00
Wick Academy
1.00
Partick
1.00
Ross County
1.00
Clyde
1.00
Keith
0.50
Raith Rovers
0.50
Edinburgh City
0.50
Huntly
0.50
Bonnyton Thistle
0.00
Hawick Royal Albert
0.00
Cumbernauld Colts
0.00
Kilmarnock
0.00
Dunipace
0.00
Glasgow University
0.00
Golspie Sutherland
0.00
Albion Rovers
0.00
Lothian Hutchison
0.00
Forres Mechanics
0.00
Nairn County
0.00
Preston Athletic
0.00
East Stirlingshire
0.00
Stirling University
0.00
Tranent Juniors
0.00
Tayport
0.00
Kilwinning Rangers
0.00
Strathspey Thistle
0.00
Deveronvale
0.00
Dundee Utd
0.00
Inverness CT
0.00
St Andrews United
0.00
Rothes
0.00
Gretna 2008
0.00
Creetown
0.00
Glenafton Athletic
0.00
Benburb
0.00
Wigtown & Bladnoch
0.00
Edinburgh University
0.00
Easthouses Lily
0.00
Blackburn United
0.00
Spartans
0.00
Motherwell
0.00
Morton
0.00
Arbroath
0.00
East Fife
0.00
Alloa Athletic
0.00
Annan Athletic
0.00
Kelty Hearts
0.00
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
0.00
Invergordon
0.00
Penicuik Athletic
0.00
Dalbeattie Star
0.00
Pollok
0.00
Newton Stewart
0.00
Haddington Athletic
0.00
St. Cuthbert Wanderers
0.00
Coldstream
0.00
Kilmarnock is 2.00 points worse than Dundee in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Girvan
5.00
Threave Rovers
4.00
Peterhead
4.00
Stirling
4.00
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
3.67
Camelon Juniors
3.50
Lochee United
3.33
Ayr Utd
3.33
Clachnacuddin
3.00
Cumnock Juniors
3.00
Clydebank
3.00
Celtic
3.00
Tynecastle
3.00
Fraserburgh
2.75
Sauchie Juniors
2.67
Culter
2.50
Rangers
2.50
Stenhousemuir
2.50
Montrose
2.50
Aberdeen
2.40
Bo'ness United
2.33
Bo'ness Athletic
2.25
Heart Of Midlothian
2.25
ST Mirren
2.00
Formartine United
2.00
Dundee North End
2.00
Preston Athletic
2.00
East Stirlingshire
2.00
Vale of Leithen
2.00
Jeanfield Swifts
2.00
Dundonald Bluebell
2.00
Deveronvale
2.00
Wick Academy
2.00
Auchinleck Talbot
2.00
Airdrie United
2.00
Cowdenbeath
2.00
Rutherglen Glencairn
2.00
Glenafton Athletic
2.00
Berwick Rangers
2.00
Dumbarton
2.00
Falkirk
2.00
Dundee
2.00
Partick
2.00
East Kilbride
2.00
Alloa Athletic
2.00
Ross County
2.00
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Stranraer
2.00
Newtongrange Star
2.00
Huntly
2.00
Dunfermline
1.67
Livingston
1.67
Hamilton Academical
1.67
Musselburgh Athletic
1.60
Carluke Rovers
1.50
Civil Service Strollers
1.50
Caledonian Braves
1.50
Brechin
1.50
Darvel
1.50
Broxburn Athletic
1.50
Queen's Park
1.50
Burntisland Shipyard
1.50
Tweedmouth
1.41
Lossiemouth
1.41
Johnstone Burgh
1.41
St Cadoc's
1.41
Hibernian
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.33
Elgin
1.33
Buckie Thistle
1.33
Banks O' Dee
1.00
Dunbar United
1.00
Kilmarnock
1.00
Dunipace
1.00
Inverurie Loco Works
1.00
Albion Rovers
1.00
Forres Mechanics
1.00
Nairn County
1.00
Turriff United
1.00
Tayport
1.00
Whitehill Welfare
1.00
Creetown
1.00
Edinburgh University
1.00
Spartans
1.00
Queen of the South
1.00
Edinburgh City
1.00
Clyde
1.00
Forfar
1.00
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
1.00
Dalbeattie Star
1.00
Pollok
1.00
Haddington Athletic
1.00
ST Johnstone
0.75
Dalkeith Thistle
0.50
Keith
0.50
Raith Rovers
0.50
Bonnyton Thistle
0.00
Hawick Royal Albert
0.00
Cumbernauld Colts
0.00
Glasgow University
0.00
Golspie Sutherland
0.00
Lothian Hutchison
0.00
Stirling University
0.00
Tranent Juniors
0.00
Kilwinning Rangers
0.00
Strathspey Thistle
0.00
Dundee Utd
0.00
Inverness CT
0.00
St Andrews United
0.00
Rothes
0.00
Gretna 2008
0.00
Benburb
0.00
Wigtown & Bladnoch
0.00
Easthouses Lily
0.00
Blackburn United
0.00
Motherwell
0.00
Morton
0.00
Arbroath
0.00
East Fife
0.00
Annan Athletic
0.00
Invergordon
0.00
Penicuik Athletic
0.00
Newton Stewart
0.00
St. Cuthbert Wanderers
0.00
Coldstream
0.00
Kilmarnock is 1.00 goals worse than Dundee in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Formartine United
0.00
Ayr Utd
0.33
Celtic
0.40
Turriff United
0.50
Camelon Juniors
0.50
Rangers
0.50
Newtongrange Star
0.50
Aberdeen
0.60
Banks O' Dee
0.67
Jeanfield Swifts
0.67
Hibernian
0.67
Dundee North End
0.75
Clydebank
0.80
ST Mirren
1.00
Bonnyton Thistle
1.00
Clachnacuddin
1.00
Carluke Rovers
1.00
Inverurie Loco Works
1.00
Musselburgh Athletic
1.00
Caledonian Braves
1.00
Dundonald Bluebell
1.00
Sauchie Juniors
1.00
Auchinleck Talbot
1.00
Dundee Utd
1.00
Heart Of Midlothian
1.00
Darvel
1.00
Cumnock Juniors
1.00
Culter
1.00
Blackburn United
1.00
Motherwell
1.00
Falkirk
1.00
Dundee
1.00
Livingston
1.00
Arbroath
1.00
Hamilton Academical
1.00
East Fife
1.00
Cove Rangers
1.00
Clyde
1.00
Stirling
1.00
Buckie Thistle
1.00
Penicuik Athletic
1.00
ST Johnstone
1.25
Cowdenbeath
1.33
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
1.33
Dunfermline
1.33
East Kilbride
1.33
Forfar
1.33
Civil Service Strollers
1.50
Whitehill Welfare
1.50
Rutherglen Glencairn
1.50
Fraserburgh
1.50
Berwick Rangers
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Edinburgh City
1.50
Stranraer
1.50
Girvan
1.50
Tynecastle
1.50
Airdrie United
1.67
Bo'ness United
1.67
Brechin
1.75
Dunbar United
2.00
Kilmarnock
2.00
Dunipace
2.00
Dalkeith Thistle
2.00
Golspie Sutherland
2.00
Albion Rovers
2.00
Lothian Hutchison
2.00
Forres Mechanics
2.00
Stirling University
2.00
Kilwinning Rangers
2.00
Bo'ness Athletic
2.00
Keith
2.00
Threave Rovers
2.00
Wick Academy
2.00
Inverness CT
2.00
Gretna 2008
2.00
Spartans
2.00
Partick
2.00
Morton
2.00
Queen's Park
2.00
Montrose
2.00
Ross County
2.00
Annan Athletic
2.00
Elgin
2.00
Dalbeattie Star
2.00
Tweedmouth
2.09
Lossiemouth
2.09
Johnstone Burgh
2.09
St Cadoc's
2.09
Broxburn Athletic
2.25
Burntisland Shipyard
2.50
Huntly
2.50
Lochee United
2.67
Cumbernauld Colts
3.00
Nairn County
3.00
Preston Athletic
3.00
East Stirlingshire
3.00
Vale of Leithen
3.00
Tayport
3.00
Creetown
3.00
Benburb
3.00
Edinburgh University
3.00
Raith Rovers
3.00
Alloa Athletic
3.00
Peterhead
3.00
Kelty Hearts
3.00
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
3.00
Pollok
3.00
Newton Stewart
3.00
Dumbarton
3.50
Hawick Royal Albert
4.00
Glasgow University
4.00
Tranent Juniors
4.00
Deveronvale
4.00
Glenafton Athletic
4.00
Wigtown & Bladnoch
4.00
Easthouses Lily
4.00
Invergordon
4.00
Haddington Athletic
4.00
Strathspey Thistle
6.00
Coldstream
6.00
St Andrews United
7.00
Rothes
8.00
St. Cuthbert Wanderers
9.00
Kilmarnock is 1.00 goals worse than Dundee in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kilmarnock
For 3.8 · Against 5.6 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 11.0 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dundee
For 2.9 · Against 6.4 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 14.7 · Total 24.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kilmarnock
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.2
11.3
3.9
4.1
3.5
23.7
23.7
23.7
vs Stronger (16)
10.4
9.2
11.7
3.8
4.4
3.2
22.1
23.2
20.7
vs Similar (34)
10.1
9.2
11.1
3.9
4.0
3.7
24.6
23.9
25.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
55%
33%
80%
50%
54%
45%
64%
67%
60%
% under line
45%
67%
20%
50%
46%
55%
36%
33%
40%
This opponent (Dundee) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.8
9.8
2.9
2.6
3.2
21.2
21.2
21.2
vs Stronger (19)
10.5
11.1
9.8
2.7
2.7
2.8
19.8
20.5
19.0
vs Similar (30)
10.1
10.5
9.8
3.0
2.5
3.6
22.2
21.8
22.5
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
70%
82%
57%
34%
27%
42%
37%
36%
38%
% under line
30%
18%
43%
66%
73%
58%
63%
64%
62%
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
East Kilbride
11.6
Ross County
11.4
Morton
11.0
Stirling
10.9
Hibernian
10.9
Dundee Utd
10.8
Celtic
10.8
Aberdeen
10.7
ST Mirren
10.7
Falkirk
10.7
Dumbarton
10.6
Rangers
10.5
Heart Of Midlothian
10.4
Dundee
10.3
Airdrie United
10.3
ST Johnstone
10.3
Stranraer
10.2
Elgin
10.2
Kilmarnock
10.2
Partick
10.1
Brechin
10.0
Arbroath
9.8
Annan Athletic
9.7
Dunfermline
9.7
East Fife
9.6
Cowdenbeath
9.4
Motherwell
9.4
Clyde
9.4
Livingston
9.3
Edinburgh City
9.2
Forfar
9.2
Kelty Hearts
9.2
Inverness CT
9.1
Cove Rangers
9.1
Spartans
8.9
Peterhead
8.8
Stenhousemuir
8.6
Montrose
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.9
Peterhead
5.4
Edinburgh City
5.2
Hamilton Academical
5.0
Forfar
5.0
Elgin
4.9
Morton
4.9
Ayr Utd
4.8
Clyde
4.6
Hibernian
4.5
Aberdeen
4.5
Motherwell
4.5
Stranraer
4.4
Stirling
4.3
Spartans
4.3
Partick
4.3
Stenhousemuir
4.2
Rangers
4.2
Livingston
4.2
Dundee Utd
4.1
Kilmarnock
4.1
ST Johnstone
4.1
East Fife
4.1
Falkirk
3.9
ST Mirren
3.9
Kelty Hearts
3.9
Cowdenbeath
3.9
Annan Athletic
3.9
Heart Of Midlothian
3.9
Dunfermline
3.8
Montrose
3.8
Dumbarton
3.7
Brechin
3.5
Celtic
3.5
Dundee
3.4
Airdrie United
3.4
Ross County
3.3
Inverness CT
3.2
Arbroath
3.2
Cove Rangers
3.0
Raith Rovers
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
East Kilbride
27.4
Peterhead
26.2
Livingston
25.6
Motherwell
25.0
Rangers
24.3
Forfar
24.3
Edinburgh City
24.0
East Fife
23.9
Aberdeen
23.8
Elgin
23.6
Falkirk
23.5
Stenhousemuir
23.4
Kilmarnock
23.4
Heart Of Midlothian
22.9
Clyde
22.6
Morton
22.5
ST Johnstone
22.1
Cowdenbeath
21.9
Dundee Utd
21.8
Stranraer
21.8
Hibernian
21.7
Stirling
21.5
Inverness CT
21.5
Dundee
21.4
Spartans
21.2
Montrose
21.2
Annan Athletic
21.2
ST Mirren
21.1
Dunfermline
20.9
Celtic
20.8
Kelty Hearts
20.8
Cove Rangers
20.8
Ross County
20.8
Arbroath
20.4
Brechin
20.4
Airdrie United
20.3
Partick
20.2
Dumbarton
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
34.3%
Under 9.5
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
66.0%
Under 3.5
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
78.1%
Under 21.5
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kilmarnock or Draw✗ Miss
75.3%
Avg Implied -
48%
28%
25%
covers Kilmarnock + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock or Dundee✓ Hit
72.3%
Avg Implied -
48%
28%
25%
covers Kilmarnock + Dundee
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dundee✓ Hit
52.4%
Avg Implied -
48%
28%
25%
covers Draw + Dundee
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.9%
Under
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
46.1%
Under
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
20.6%
Under
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
65.4%
Under
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
28.7%
Under
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.2%
Under
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kilmarnock, so a minus line means Kilmarnock give that many goals of a start and Dundee receive them. At -1, Kilmarnock must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kilmarnock win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kilmarnock)Actual: Dundee
Kilmarnock -2
10.2%
Draw -2
14.8%
Dundee +2
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kilmarnock)Actual: Dundee
Kilmarnock -1
25.1%
Draw -1
22.5%
Dundee +1
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kilmarnock)Actual: Draw
Kilmarnock +1
75.3%
Draw +1
15.0%
Dundee -1
9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kilmarnock)Actual: Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock +2
90.3%
Draw +2
6.9%
Dundee -2
2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kilmarnock
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.71
0.47
0.46
0.69
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
0.78
0.00
0.60
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.48
1.00
0.42
0.44
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.60
0.80
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
1.40
0.60
1.40
0.00
1.40
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.37
0.60
0.50
0.56
0.22
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kilmarnock
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.03
0.47
1.00
0.46
1.08
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
1.67
0.40
1.80
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.76
0.50
0.67
0.44
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.53
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
0.70
0.20
0.40
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.74
1.10
0.60
0.33
0.89
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundee over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Kilmarnock
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joe Hugill40%
Tyreece John-Jules33%
Djenairo Daniels29%
Findlay Curtis29%
Nicky Cleșcenco20%
Greg Kiltie12%
Bruce Anderson11%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen11%
George Stanger10%
David Watson9%
Scott Tiffoney8%
Marcus Dackers8%
Marley Watkins7%
Ben Brannan6%
Robbie Deas6%
Tom Lowery5%
Liam Polworth3%
Bradley Lyons3%
Kelle Roos0%
Max Stryjek0%
Aaron Tshibola0%
Rory McKenzie0%
Jamie Brandon0%
Kyle Magennis0%
James Brown0%
Jack Thomson0%
Lewis Mayo0%
Dominic Thompson0%
Eddie Beach0%
Zac Williams0%
Toby Oluwayemi0%
Ethan Brown0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kyle Magennis33%
Robbie Deas33%
George Stanger30%
Bradley Lyons29%
Djenairo Daniels29%
David Watson24%
Aaron Tshibola21%
Joe Hugill20%
Jamie Brandon17%
Marcus Dackers17%
Dominic Thompson16%
Tom Lowery14%
James Brown13%
Jack Thomson12%
Lewis Mayo12%
Greg Kiltie12%
Ben Brannan12%
Liam Polworth10%
Bruce Anderson9%
Findlay Curtis7%
Tyreece John-Jules6%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen6%
Ethan Brown6%
Kelle Roos0%
Marley Watkins0%
Max Stryjek0%
Rory McKenzie0%
Scott Tiffoney0%
Nicky Cleșcenco0%
Eddie Beach0%
Zac Williams0%
Toby Oluwayemi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Greg Kiltie21%
James Brown13%
Joe Hugill13%
Tyreece John-Jules11%
Scott Tiffoney8%
Marley Watkins7%
Findlay Curtis7%
Bruce Anderson6%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen6%
Robbie Deas6%
Dominic Thompson5%
Tom Lowery5%
Liam Polworth3%
Bradley Lyons3%
David Watson3%
Kelle Roos0%
Max Stryjek0%
Aaron Tshibola0%
Rory McKenzie0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Kyle Magennis0%
Jack Thomson0%
Lewis Mayo0%
Nicky Cleșcenco0%
Djenairo Daniels0%
Marcus Dackers0%
Eddie Beach0%
Zac Williams0%
Toby Oluwayemi0%
Ethan Brown0%
Ben Brannan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Findlay Curtis43%
Tyreece John-Jules22%
Joe Hugill20%
Djenairo Daniels14%
Marcus Dackers12%
David Watson6%
Bruce Anderson6%
Greg Kiltie3%
Tom Lowery0%
Kelle Roos0%
Marley Watkins0%
Max Stryjek0%
Aaron Tshibola0%
Rory McKenzie0%
Jamie Brandon0%
Scott Tiffoney0%
George Stanger0%
Bradley Lyons0%
Kyle Magennis0%
Liam Polworth0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
James Brown0%
Jack Thomson0%
Lewis Mayo0%
Dominic Thompson0%
Robbie Deas0%
Nicky Cleșcenco0%
Eddie Beach0%
Zac Williams0%
Toby Oluwayemi0%
Ethan Brown0%
Ben Brannan0%
Dundee
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Simon Murray19%
Joe Westley17%
Ashley Hay14%
Clark Robertson13%
Finlay Robertson12%
Scott Wright11%
Cameron Congreve9%
Ryan Astley8%
Joel Cotterill8%
Yan Dhanda7%
Drey Wright6%
Luke Graham6%
Charlie Reilly5%
Callum Jones4%
Ethan Hamilton3%
Tony Yogane3%
Paul Digby0%
Brad Halliday0%
Kieran O'Hara0%
Emile Acquah0%
Billy Koumetio0%
Imari Samuels0%
Jon McCracken0%
Ethan Ingram0%
Joe Bevan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ethan Ingram33%
Ethan Hamilton27%
Kieran O'Hara25%
Finlay Robertson24%
Brad Halliday20%
Clark Robertson20%
Joe Bevan20%
Yan Dhanda14%
Scott Wright11%
Charlie Reilly10%
Simon Murray9%
Cameron Congreve9%
Joe Westley9%
Luke Graham8%
Emile Acquah8%
Callum Jones7%
Paul Digby7%
Drey Wright6%
Ryan Astley6%
Billy Koumetio5%
Imari Samuels3%
Jon McCracken3%
Tony Yogane3%
Joel Cotterill0%
Ashley Hay0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cameron Congreve15%
Tony Yogane14%
Charlie Reilly10%
Joe Westley9%
Finlay Robertson8%
Paul Digby7%
Clark Robertson7%
Drey Wright6%
Ashley Hay3%
Imari Samuels3%
Ryan Astley3%
Luke Graham3%
Brad Halliday0%
Kieran O'Hara0%
Yan Dhanda0%
Ethan Hamilton0%
Emile Acquah0%
Scott Wright0%
Simon Murray0%
Billy Koumetio0%
Callum Jones0%
Jon McCracken0%
Ethan Ingram0%
Joel Cotterill0%
Joe Bevan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Billy Koumetio10%
Ethan Hamilton9%
Joel Cotterill8%
Simon Murray6%
Cameron Congreve6%
Charlie Reilly5%
Yan Dhanda4%
Ashley Hay3%
Paul Digby0%
Brad Halliday0%
Kieran O'Hara0%
Clark Robertson0%
Emile Acquah0%
Drey Wright0%
Scott Wright0%
Finlay Robertson0%
Ryan Astley0%
Callum Jones0%
Imari Samuels0%
Jon McCracken0%
Ethan Ingram0%
Luke Graham0%
Joe Westley0%
Tony Yogane0%
Joe Bevan0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
KH (4)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Kilmarnock's squad is €1m more valuable than Dundee's (€7m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Kilmarnock's attack is €1m more valuable than Dundee's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Kilmarnock and Dundee have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Kilmarnock and Dundee have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Scotland: Premiership 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Heart Of Midlothian
Rangers
Motherwell
Hibernian
Falkirk
Dundee Utd
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
Livingston
Partick
Dunfermline
Arbroath