Kilmarnock’s recent win over Ayr Utd, a 3-2 triumph, gives them a spark as they host Dundee United, who have returned from a three-game losing streak. The model favours a home win, with a 48 % chance, a 24 % chance of a draw and a 28 % chance of an away win. The expected total is 3.4 goals, centring on a 3-goal outcome that carries a 22 % probability. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.5 % chance.
Kilmarnock average 2.0 goals for and 1.0 against at home against similar opposition, while Dundee United average 1.09 goals scored and 2.0 conceded on the road. The model’s selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.4 % with a 6 % edge, Under 7.5 at 97.8 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.6 % with a 7 % edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.5 % with a 4 % edge, Under 6.5 at 94.3 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.3 % with a 4 % edge, Away under 3.5 goals at 94.2 % with a 3 % edge, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 90.5 % with a 6 % edge.
Results analysis
The upset came as Kilmarnock, who had just suffered a 0-4 defeat, failed to lift the home advantage and Dundee Utd secured a 4-0 victory. The pre-match favourite was a home win at 50%, but the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selections were mixed: Away under 2.5 HT goals (98%) missed, Under 7.5 (97.8%) hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.2%) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.6%) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (94.7%) missed, Under 6.5 (94.4%) hit, Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.1%) hit, and Away under 1.5 HT goals (90.5%) missed. The final score of 0-4 confirmed the away triumph.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kilmarnock win✗ Miss
50.2%
Avg Implied 37.9% · @ 2.47
Edge
+12.3%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.55
Pinnacle
2.54
Superbet
2.52
Betano
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Draw✗ Miss
23.7%
Avg Implied 27.0% · @ 3.47
Edge
-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.68
Dafabet
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
10Bet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Dundee Utd win✓ Hit
26.1%
Avg Implied 35.1% · @ 2.66
Edge
-9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.75
Betano
2.72
Superbet
2.72
Pinnacle
2.72
Betfair
2.70
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kilmarnock
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.70
1.80
1.47
1.13
1.93
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
3.17
1.25
2.75
0.50
4.00
vs Similar (23)
1.61
1.39
2.10
1.10
1.23
1.62
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee Utd
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.57
1.44
1.00
1.07
2.21
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.60
1.00
1.67
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (23)
1.26
1.48
1.42
0.92
1.09
2.09
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.0%
@ 1.21+8.6%
Under 1.5
14.0%
@ 4.16-8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.54
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.35
Betfair
4.33
Betano
4.15
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.6%
@ 1.72+10.4%
Under 2.5
34.4%
@ 2.11-10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.80
Unibet
1.76
SBO
1.76
Betfair
1.73
Betano
1.72
Under
Pinnacle
2.24
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.18
Superbet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.14
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.6%
@ 2.75+9.4%
Under 3.5
56.4%
@ 1.43-9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.00
Unibet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.75
Betano
2.75
Under
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.41
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
65.8%
@ 1.57+6.6%
No
34.2%
@ 2.28-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Superbet
1.58
Unibet
1.58
Bet365
1.57
No
Betfair
2.38
Betano
2.35
BetVictor
2.30
1xBet
2.30
Superbet
2.30
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%@ 6.21+3.2%
2-1
9.4%@ 8.76+4.2%
2-0
6.7%@ 12.43+3.1%
1-2
6.6%@ 9.22+1.7%
2-2
6.5%@ 11.25+2.5%
3-1
6.2%@ 16.60+3.5%
1-0
5.8%@ 9.16+0.9%
3-0
4.4%@ 24.20+2.6%
Kilmarnock goals ↓
Dundee Utd goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
3.8%
3.3%
1.6%
0.5%
1
5.8%
10%
6.6%
3.1%
1.1%
2
6.7%
9.4%
6.5%
3.0%
1.1%
3
4.4%
6.2%
4.3%
2.0%
0.7%
4
2.2%
3.1%
2.1%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kilmarnock goals (down), columns = Dundee Utd goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.16
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Rangers
1.89
Motherwell
1.61
Hibernian
1.50
Falkirk
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.18
Dundee
1.11
Kilmarnock
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.05
ST Mirren
0.95
Kilmarnock is 0.13 points worse than Dundee Utd in terms of average points per game (1.05 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.00
Celtic
1.92
Heart Of Midlothian
1.76
Motherwell
1.55
Hibernian
1.53
Kilmarnock
1.32
Falkirk
1.32
Dundee Utd
1.29
Dundee
1.11
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.00
ST Mirren
0.80
Kilmarnock is 0.03 goals better than Dundee Utd in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Motherwell
0.95
Celtic
1.08
Rangers
1.13
Hibernian
1.16
ST Mirren
1.40
Aberdeen
1.45
ST Johnstone
1.56
Dundee Utd
1.58
Dundee
1.61
Falkirk
1.63
Kilmarnock
1.79
Kilmarnock is 0.21 goals worse than Dundee Utd in terms of goals conceded per game (1.79 vs 1.58).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
66%
Rangers
58%
Motherwell
58%
Heart Of Midlothian
53%
Falkirk
51%
Aberdeen
48%
Hibernian
47%
ST Mirren
46%
Dundee
44%
Kilmarnock
42%
Dundee Utd
42%
Kilmarnock is 0.2 percentage points better than Dundee Utd in terms of average possession (42% vs 42%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kilmarnock
For 4.3 · Against 4.2 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 10.4 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dundee Utd
For 3.9 · Against 6.5 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 10.8 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kilmarnock
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.3
9.9
3.9
4.0
3.7
24.4
25.2
23.5
vs Stronger (13)
11.2
10.7
11.7
3.8
4.1
3.5
22.1
23.7
20.2
vs Similar (36)
8.9
8.6
9.2
3.9
4.1
3.8
26.0
27.3
24.9
vs Weaker (1)
9.0
9.0
-
1.0
1.0
-
9.0
9.0
-
% over line
50%
43%
57%
60%
63%
57%
71%
81%
62%
% under line
50%
57%
43%
40%
37%
43%
29%
19%
38%
This opponent (Dundee Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee Utd
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
11.4
9.2
3.5
3.4
3.7
22.8
22.3
23.4
vs Stronger (9)
13.2
14.4
11.3
3.6
4.0
2.7
20.6
20.2
21.3
vs Similar (39)
9.6
10.5
8.8
3.7
3.4
4.0
23.3
22.9
23.8
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
60%
73%
45%
52%
48%
57%
55%
55%
55%
% under line
40%
27%
55%
48%
52%
43%
45%
45%
45%
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
ST Mirren
11.2
Celtic
10.8
Dundee Utd
10.5
Hibernian
10.5
Heart Of Midlothian
10.3
Rangers
10.1
Aberdeen
10.1
ST Johnstone
10.0
Dundee
9.9
Falkirk
9.6
Kilmarnock
9.5
Motherwell
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aberdeen
4.8
Hibernian
4.8
Motherwell
4.7
Heart Of Midlothian
4.6
Rangers
4.2
Kilmarnock
4.1
Falkirk
4.1
Dundee Utd
4.1
ST Johnstone
4.0
Celtic
3.8
Dundee
3.7
ST Mirren
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rangers
26.3
Motherwell
25.8
Aberdeen
25.5
Falkirk
25.3
Kilmarnock
24.4
Heart Of Midlothian
24.1
Hibernian
23.2
ST Johnstone
22.1
ST Mirren
21.9
Dundee Utd
21.8
Dundee
21.6
Celtic
21.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
48.5%
@ 1.52-12.1%
Under 9.5
51.5%
@ 2.34+12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.57
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.52
Unibet
1.52
1xBet
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.46
Betano
2.42
Marathonbet
2.36
Unibet
2.30
Superbet
2.25
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
57.6%
@ 1.52-2.9%
Under 3.5
42.4%
@ 2.33+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.52
Superbet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Under
Betano
2.45
Unibet
2.28
Superbet
2.25
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
68.5%
Under 21.5
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kilmarnock or Draw✗ Miss
73.9%
Avg Implied 64.9% · @ 1.44
Edge
+8.9%
50%
24%
26%
covers Kilmarnock + Draw
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Unibet
1.46
BetVictor
1.44
Kilmarnock or Dundee Utd✓ Hit
76.3%
Avg Implied 73.2% · @ 1.28
Edge
+3.2%
50%
24%
26%
covers Kilmarnock + Dundee Utd
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Draw or Dundee Utd✓ Hit
49.8%
Avg Implied 61.9% · @ 1.51
Edge
-12.1%
50%
24%
26%
covers Draw + Dundee Utd
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.53
William Hil
1.53
Marathonbet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
86.2%
@ 1.23+10.4%
Under
13.8%
@ 3.85-10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Unibet
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.24
Superbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Betano
3.80
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
58.9%
@ 2.13+14.8%
Under
41.1%
@ 1.68-14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.25
Unibet
2.18
Pinnacle
2.17
1xBet
2.13
Bet365
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Marathonbet
1.71
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
31.8%
@ 4.63+11.7%
Under
68.2%
@ 1.17-11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
5.00
BetVictor
4.75
Unibet
4.70
1xBet
4.55
Under
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Kilmarnock over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
13.9%
@ 10.23+4.8%
Under
86.1%
@ 1.03-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Superbet
10.00
1xBet
9.60
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Unibet
1.01
Dundee Utd over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.3%
@ 1.24+0.5%
Under
24.7%
@ 3.68-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.97
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Superbet
3.70
BetVictor
3.70
Dundee Utd over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
40.7%
@ 2.23-1.4%
Under
59.3%
@ 1.62+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.29
10Bet
2.25
Unibet
2.25
Betfair
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Under
Pinnacle
1.66
Marathonbet
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Superbet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Dundee Utd over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
16.6%
@ 4.94-2.3%
Under
83.4%
@ 1.15+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Dundee Utd over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
5.3%
@ 11.24-3.1%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.03+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
11.00
1xBet
10.70
Marathonbet
10.50
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kilmarnock, so a minus line means Kilmarnock give that many goals of a start and Dundee Utd receive them. At -1, Kilmarnock must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kilmarnock win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kilmarnock)Actual: Dundee Utd
Kilmarnock -2
14.1%
@ 9.98+5.1%
Draw -2
15.4%
@ 7.01+2.6%
Dundee Utd +2
70.5%
@ 1.15-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
11.00
Unibet
10.00
10Bet
10.00
Superbet
9.10
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.80
Unibet
6.75
Away
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Handicap -1 (Kilmarnock)Actual: Dundee Utd
Kilmarnock -1
29.5%
@ 4.77+10.7%
Draw -1
20.6%
@ 4.20-0.8%
Dundee Utd +1
49.8%
@ 1.51-9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Unibet
4.70
Superbet
4.45
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
Superbet
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Away
Betfair
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Handicap +1 (Kilmarnock)Actual: Dundee Utd
Kilmarnock +1
73.9%
@ 1.44+11.9%
Draw +1
14.3%
@ 4.34-6.3%
Dundee Utd -1
11.9%
@ 5.14-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.45
Unibet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Superbet
4.45
Marathonbet
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Unibet
4.20
Away
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Handicap +2 (Kilmarnock)Actual: Dundee Utd
Kilmarnock +2
88.1%
@ 1.12+9.2%
Draw +2
7.7%
@ 7.00-5.0%
Dundee Utd -2
4.2%
@ 10.61-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Away
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
Unibet
11.00
Superbet
10.00
10Bet
10.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kilmarnock
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.87
0.47
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.17
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.74
0.52
1.00
0.30
0.54
0.69
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee Utd
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.67
0.44
0.38
0.36
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.33
0.67
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.39
0.61
0.42
0.33
0.36
0.91
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.9%
@ 1.32-0.7%
Under 0.5
30.1%
@ 3.19+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Unibet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.31
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
William Hil
3.25
Superbet
3.25
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
36.4%
@ 2.50-0.8%
Under 1.5
63.6%
@ 1.48+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.63
Betano
2.60
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.54
William Hil
2.50
Under
Superbet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
BetVictor
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
12.3%
@ 5.95-3.3%
Under 2.5
87.7%
@ 1.10+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
6.10
William Hil
6.00
Under
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
53.0%
@ 1.93+4.9%
Under
47.0%
@ 1.80-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.98
Betano
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
Superbet
1.92
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Superbet
1.80
Betano
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.78
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
16.6%
@ 5.62+0.1%
Under
83.4%
@ 1.11-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
1xBet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.65
Superbet
5.40
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Unibet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 14.25-3.2%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.01+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Dundee Utd over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
38.2%
@ 1.99-8.7%
Under
61.8%
@ 1.75+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.02
Unibet
2.02
Betano
2.02
1xBet
1.97
Superbet
1.97
Under
Pinnacle
1.81
10Bet
1.77
Superbet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
Dundee Utd over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
9.5%
@ 5.92-6.2%
Under
90.5%
@ 1.10+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
6.25
1xBet
6.05
Marathonbet
5.95
Betano
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
Dundee Utd over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
2.0%
@ 15.38-4.2%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.02+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kilmarnock
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.07
0.93
1.00
0.67
1.13
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
2.00
0.50
1.75
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.87
1.10
0.80
0.69
0.92
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee Utd
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.90
1.00
0.62
0.71
1.21
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.40
0.67
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.87
1.00
0.58
0.73
1.18
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.2%
@ 1.19+1.9%
Under 0.5
19.8%
@ 4.28-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Under
Betano
4.45
Superbet
4.40
Marathonbet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
46.8%
@ 1.91-2.1%
Under 1.5
53.2%
@ 1.82+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
1.95
Unibet
1.91
William Hil
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Under
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Superbet
1.83
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
20.8%
@ 3.84-3.4%
Under 2.5
79.2%
@ 1.23+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.20
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.95
William Hil
3.90
Superbet
3.85
Under
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
59.4%
@ 1.66+3.5%
Under
40.6%
@ 2.10-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.71
Superbet
1.66
1xBet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Under
Betano
2.20
1xBet
2.11
Superbet
2.10
Marathonbet
1.99
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
22.7%
@ 4.12+0.2%
Under
77.3%
@ 1.20-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.50
Superbet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.05
Betano
3.85
Under
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.9%
@ 10.50-3.0%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.03+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
Dundee Utd over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
47.9%
@ 1.68-7.3%
Under
52.1%
@ 2.06+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.69
Superbet
1.68
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Under
Betano
2.12
Superbet
2.07
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.02
Dundee Utd over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.6%
@ 4.28-4.0%
Under
82.4%
@ 1.18+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.50
Superbet
4.30
1xBet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.25
Betano
4.05
Under
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Dundee Utd over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 10.62-6.0%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.03+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.2%
✗ Miss
Under 7.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.2%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.7%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
+3.1%
✗ Miss
Under 6.5
94.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.5%
1.10
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
+6.2%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
88.1%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
+9.2%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.7%
1.10
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
+3.3%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
87.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.04
BetVictor
1.03
-2.6%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
86.2%
1.23
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Unibet
1.22
+10.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
86.1%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Unibet
1.01
-4.8%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
86.0%
1.21
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
+8.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
83.4%
1.15
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
+2.3%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.4%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Unibet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.4%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.2%
1.19
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.2%
1.23
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.7%
1.34
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.29
-
-
-
+9.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.3%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
10Bet
1.17
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.3%
1.28
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
75.3%
1.24
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
74.9%
1.15
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.19
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Betfair
1.14
-6.6%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.6%
1.53
Pinnacle
1.58
Superbet
1.55
Unibet
1.54
Betano
1.53
Marathonbet
1.51
+14.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
73.9%
1.44
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Unibet
1.46
BetVictor
1.44
+8.9%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
73.9%
1.44
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.45
Unibet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
+11.9%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
70.5%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
-7.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Kilmarnock
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Greg Kiltie25%
M. Schjønning-Larsen25%
Joe Hugill25%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
J. Brandon0%
G. Stanger0%
E. Ring0%
B. Rice0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joe Hugill50%
B. Rice50%
Tyreece John-Jules25%
J. Brandon25%
Greg Kiltie25%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
G. Stanger0%
M. Schjønning-Larsen0%
E. Ring0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom Lowery50%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
J. Brandon0%
G. Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
M. Schjønning-Larsen0%
E. Ring0%
Joe Hugill0%
B. Rice0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Hugill25%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
J. Brandon0%
G. Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
M. Schjønning-Larsen0%
E. Ring0%
B. Rice0%
Dundee Utd
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Emmanuel Agyei25%
J. Randall20%
William Ferry20%
L. Rose20%
Z. Sapsford20%
Vicko Ševelj0%
Panutche Camará0%
J. Walton0%
M. Merghem0%
N. Farrugia0%
Dylan Tait0%
J. Rawlins0%
Idjessi Metsoko0%
Michael Forbes0%
B. Esselink0%
D. Bennie0%
Abdoulaye Yoro0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vicko Ševelj67%
D. Bennie40%
Abdoulaye Yoro33%
Dylan Tait25%
William Ferry20%
B. Esselink20%
L. Rose20%
Z. Sapsford20%
Panutche Camará0%
J. Walton0%
M. Merghem0%
N. Farrugia0%
J. Rawlins0%
J. Randall0%
Idjessi Metsoko0%
Michael Forbes0%
Emmanuel Agyei0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
M. Merghem25%
J. Randall20%
William Ferry20%
Vicko Ševelj0%
Panutche Camará0%
J. Walton0%
N. Farrugia0%
Dylan Tait0%
J. Rawlins0%
Idjessi Metsoko0%
Michael Forbes0%
B. Esselink0%
L. Rose0%
Z. Sapsford0%
D. Bennie0%
Emmanuel Agyei0%
Abdoulaye Yoro0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
M. Merghem25%
Dylan Tait25%
D. Bennie20%
Vicko Ševelj0%
Panutche Camará0%
J. Walton0%
N. Farrugia0%
J. Rawlins0%
J. Randall0%
William Ferry0%
Idjessi Metsoko0%
Michael Forbes0%
B. Esselink0%
L. Rose0%
Z. Sapsford0%
Emmanuel Agyei0%
Abdoulaye Yoro0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
Kilmarnock's squad is €4m less valuable than Dundee Utd's (€7m vs €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
Kilmarnock and Dundee Utd have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
Kilmarnock's midfield is €1m less valuable than Dundee Utd's (€2m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
Kilmarnock's defence is €2m less valuable than Dundee Utd's (€3m vs €4m).
Scotland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Celtic
ST Mirren
Heart Of Midlothian
Motherwell
Dundee
Rangers
Hibernian
ST Johnstone
Aberdeen
Falkirk