Kilmarnock are tipped to win, the model’s pick, with a 46% chance of a home triumph, 30% for a draw and 24% for Hibernian. The expected total goals sit at 2.3, so a modest 2-goal game is most likely. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14% probability, even though the actual result was a 2-1 away win. Kilmarnock, playing at home against a stronger side, have averaged 1.71 goals scored and 1.00 conceded, while Hibernian, away against a weaker opponent, have managed 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 86.1%, Over 19.5 fouls at 81.6%, Under 3.5 goals at 79.3%, Under 4.5 cards at 73.0% and Over 8.5 corners at 70.3%. These picks reflect the expected flow of the match.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Kilmarnock, failed to deliver as the game ended 1-2 in favour of Hibernian, a result that shocked the model’s prediction. The model had given the home side a 46% chance of victory, but the outcome proved otherwise. The model’s selection was wrong, and the match’s final score was 1-2, confirming an away win. The model’s other picks all hit: Under 5.5 cards at 86.1%, Over 19.5 fouls at 81.6%, Under 3.5 at 79.3%, Under 4.5 cards at 73.0% and Over 8.5 corners at 70.3%. Kilmarnock’s recent form, after a 0-4 loss, had been shaky, while Hibernian, fresh from a 2-1 win, showed resilience.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kilmarnock win✗ Miss
45.8%
Avg Implied 39.7% · @ 2.35
Edge
+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied 28.8% · @ 3.24
Edge
+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hibernian win✓ Hit
24.4%
Avg Implied 31.4% · @ 2.97
Edge
-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kilmarnock
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.17
1.33
0.80
0.73
1.53
vs Stronger (14)
1.43
1.14
1.71
1.00
1.14
1.29
vs Similar (16)
0.69
1.19
1.00
0.62
0.38
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.53
1.73
1.40
0.87
1.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
2.50
0.50
2.00
0.50
2.75
vs Similar (9)
1.33
1.11
1.80
1.20
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
1.60
1.40
2.00
1.38
1.14
1.43
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.9%
Under 1.5
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.2%
@ 2.05-4.7%
Under 2.5
58.8%
@ 1.74+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.7%
Under 3.5
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.1%
No
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0
12.2%
0-0
11.0%
2-0
9.3%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.9%
1-2 ✓
6.0%
0-2
4.4%
Kilmarnock goals ↓
Hibernian goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
7.9%
4.4%
1.4%
0.3%
1
12%
14%
6.0%
1.9%
0.4%
2
9.3%
8.8%
4.2%
1.3%
0.3%
3
4.3%
4.1%
1.9%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.5%
1.4%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kilmarnock goals (down), columns = Hibernian goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.67
Rangers
2.31
Motherwell
1.53
Aberdeen
1.50
Livingston
1.30
ST Johnstone
1.24
Hibernian
1.23
Kilmarnock
1.10
ST Mirren
0.97
Ross County
0.97
Hamilton
0.90
Heart Of Midlothian
0.77
Kilmarnock is 0.13 points worse than Hibernian in terms of average points per game (1.10 vs 1.23).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.97
Rangers
2.21
Hibernian
1.40
Livingston
1.37
Motherwell
1.37
Aberdeen
1.33
Kilmarnock
1.03
Heart Of Midlothian
1.03
Hamilton
1.00
Ross County
0.97
ST Johnstone
0.97
ST Mirren
0.80
Kilmarnock is 0.37 goals worse than Hibernian in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.63
Rangers
0.66
Aberdeen
1.20
Motherwell
1.27
Livingston
1.30
Kilmarnock
1.37
ST Mirren
1.37
ST Johnstone
1.59
Hibernian
1.63
Hamilton
1.67
Heart Of Midlothian
1.73
Ross County
2.00
Kilmarnock is 0.27 goals better than Hibernian in terms of goals conceded per game (1.37 vs 1.63).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kilmarnock
For 4.2 · Against 6.9 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 12.5 · Total 24.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hibernian
For 4.6 · Against 6.6 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 11.8 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kilmarnock
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
8.8
10.2
3.7
3.5
4.0
23.9
24.7
23.0
vs Stronger (21)
9.9
9.3
10.5
3.8
3.2
4.4
23.6
24.6
22.4
vs Similar (29)
9.2
8.4
10.0
3.7
3.7
3.6
24.1
24.7
23.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
34%
31%
38%
54%
50%
58%
64%
69%
58%
% under line
66%
69%
62%
46%
50%
42%
36%
31%
42%
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.0
10.3
3.8
4.2
3.4
23.0
23.2
22.8
vs Stronger (12)
10.4
9.8
11.0
4.5
5.3
3.7
20.7
21.2
20.2
vs Similar (14)
9.9
9.5
10.5
4.3
4.2
4.3
24.6
24.5
24.7
vs Weaker (24)
10.1
10.3
9.9
3.2
3.5
2.8
23.2
23.2
23.2
% over line
58%
58%
58%
50%
54%
46%
60%
65%
54%
% under line
42%
42%
42%
50%
46%
54%
40%
35%
46%
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Hamilton
11.1
Rangers
10.7
Ross County
10.6
Celtic
10.4
ST Mirren
10.2
Heart Of Midlothian
10.2
Hibernian
10.1
ST Johnstone
9.9
Motherwell
9.6
Livingston
9.5
Kilmarnock
9.5
Aberdeen
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Heart Of Midlothian
4.4
Ross County
4.0
Rangers
3.9
Hibernian
3.8
Aberdeen
3.8
Kilmarnock
3.7
Motherwell
3.6
ST Johnstone
3.5
Celtic
3.4
ST Mirren
3.2
Hamilton
3.1
Livingston
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
27.5
Aberdeen
26.1
Hamilton
24.6
Motherwell
24.0
Rangers
23.9
Kilmarnock
23.9
Ross County
23.9
ST Mirren
23.4
ST Johnstone
23.4
Hibernian
23.0
Livingston
22.7
Celtic
21.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.3%
Under 9.5
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
45.8%
Under 3.5
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
68.1%
Under 21.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kilmarnock
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.40
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
0.36
0.71
0.43
0.57
0.29
vs Similar (16)
0.31
0.56
0.25
0.38
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.57
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.33
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.33
0.60
0.40
0.50
0.25
vs Weaker (15)
0.73
0.40
0.75
0.62
0.71
0.14
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kilmarnock
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.87
0.40
0.27
1.00
vs Stronger (14)
0.79
0.79
1.00
0.57
0.57
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.62
0.75
0.25
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.97
1.07
0.73
0.27
1.20
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
1.17
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.78
1.20
0.80
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (15)
0.87
1.00
1.25
0.75
0.43
1.29
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Kilmarnock · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Greg Kiltie33%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen33%
Joe Hugill33%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
Max Stryjek0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Bailey Rice0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joe Hugill67%
Tyreece John-Jules33%
Jamie Brandon33%
Bailey Rice33%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
Max Stryjek0%
George Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom Lowery67%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Max Stryjek0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
Joe Hugill0%
Bailey Rice0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Hugill33%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
Max Stryjek0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
Bailey Rice0%
Hibernian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Martin Boyle67%
Callum Wright67%
Felix Passlack25%
Jason Kerr25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Josh Mulligan0%
Jamie McGrath0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Felix Passlack25%
Josh Mulligan25%
Ante Šuto25%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Martin Boyle0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jamie McGrath0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jamie McGrath33%
Felix Passlack25%
Josh Mulligan25%
Nathan Lowe25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Martin Boyle0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Martin Boyle33%
Jamie McGrath33%
Josh Mulligan25%
Nathan Lowe25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Felix Passlack0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Kilmarnock's squad is €13m less valuable than Hibernian's (€7m vs €20m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Kilmarnock's attack is €5m less valuable than Hibernian's (€3m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Kilmarnock's midfield is €6m less valuable than Hibernian's (€2m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Kilmarnock's defence is €2m less valuable than Hibernian's (€3m vs €5m).
Scotland: Premiership 2019/20 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Rangers
Motherwell
Aberdeen
Livingston
ST Johnstone
ST Mirren
Ross County
Heart Of Midlothian