The contest between Kilmarnock and Hibernian is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win at 38%. A draw sits at 30% and an away win at 33%. The expected total of goals is 2.5, with the most likely total number of goals being two, a 27% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 14.2% probability, and that is the only scoreline to mention. Kilmarnock, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Hibernian, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 1.89 goals scored and 0.89 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 86.9%, Over 19.5 fouls at 85.2%, Under 3.5 at 76.8%, Under 4.5 cards at 74.2%, Over 8.5 corners at 73.8% (miss), Over 21.5 fouls at 73.1%, and Over 1.5 at 71.6% (miss). The match is poised for a closely contested encounter.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Hibernian snatched a 1-0 win, overturning the pre-match favourite, Kilmarnock, who had been tipped to win with a 38% chance. The model’s call was wrong. The final score of 0-1 confirmed an away victory, a result the model did not predict. Among the model’s selections, Under 5.5 cards hit at 86.9%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 85.2%, Under 3.5 hit at 76.8%, Under 4.5 cards hit at 74.2%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 73.1%, while Over 8.5 corners missed at 73.8% and Over 1.5 missed at 71.6%. The match ended with a single goal, a tidy scoreline that matched the most likely total of two goals, but the outcome defied expectations.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kilmarnock win✗ Miss
37.6%
Avg Implied 29.2% · @ 3.21
Edge
+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied 28.3% · @ 3.32
Edge
+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hibernian win✓ Hit
32.6%
Avg Implied 42.5% · @ 2.21
Edge
-9.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kilmarnock
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.50
1.69
1.23
0.88
1.71
vs Stronger (11)
1.36
1.73
1.60
1.40
1.17
2.00
vs Similar (19)
1.16
1.37
1.75
1.12
0.73
1.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.23
1.71
1.36
1.38
1.12
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
2.40
1.00
2.50
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (9)
1.22
0.89
1.40
1.00
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (16)
2.00
1.06
2.14
1.29
1.89
0.89
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
71.6%
Under 1.5
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.4%
@ 2.09-0.7%
Under 2.5
55.6%
@ 1.72+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.2%
Under 3.5
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.1%
No
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
0-0
9.9%
1-0
9.7%
0-1 ✓
8.8%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
7.0%
0-2
5.9%
Kilmarnock goals ↓
Hibernian goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.9%
8.8%
5.9%
2.3%
0.7%
1
9.7%
14%
7.6%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.0%
8.3%
4.8%
1.9%
0.6%
3
3.0%
3.5%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.0%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kilmarnock goals (down), columns = Hibernian goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rangers
2.68
Celtic
2.03
Hibernian
1.66
Aberdeen
1.47
Livingston
1.18
ST Mirren
1.18
Motherwell
1.18
ST Johnstone
1.18
Dundee Utd
1.16
Ross County
1.03
Kilmarnock
0.95
Hamilton
0.79
Kilmarnock is 0.71 points worse than Hibernian in terms of average points per game (0.95 vs 1.66).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.42
Celtic
2.05
Hibernian
1.26
Kilmarnock
1.13
Livingston
1.11
Motherwell
1.03
ST Mirren
0.97
Aberdeen
0.95
ST Johnstone
0.95
Ross County
0.92
Hamilton
0.89
Dundee Utd
0.84
Kilmarnock is 0.13 goals worse than Hibernian in terms of goals scored per game (1.13 vs 1.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rangers
0.34
Celtic
0.76
Hibernian
0.92
Aberdeen
1.00
ST Mirren
1.18
ST Johnstone
1.21
Dundee Utd
1.32
Livingston
1.42
Kilmarnock
1.42
Motherwell
1.45
Ross County
1.74
Hamilton
1.76
Kilmarnock is 0.50 goals worse than Hibernian in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 0.92).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kilmarnock
For 4.8 · Against 5.9 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 13.4 · Total 25.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hibernian
For 5.3 · Against 5.5 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 14.4 · Total 26.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kilmarnock
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
9.8
11.0
3.7
3.6
3.7
24.1
24.9
23.3
vs Stronger (21)
10.5
10.6
10.4
3.4
2.9
3.8
23.0
24.4
22.0
vs Similar (29)
10.4
9.3
11.6
3.9
4.1
3.6
24.8
25.2
24.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
50%
50%
58%
62%
54%
70%
75%
65%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
42%
38%
46%
30%
25%
35%
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.5
11.1
3.5
3.6
3.4
23.4
23.6
23.2
vs Stronger (9)
10.9
9.0
12.4
4.8
6.2
3.6
21.3
22.0
20.8
vs Similar (16)
10.7
10.6
10.9
4.0
3.7
4.4
25.7
26.2
25.0
vs Weaker (25)
10.8
10.9
10.7
2.8
2.8
2.8
22.8
22.2
23.2
% over line
60%
60%
60%
46%
44%
48%
58%
64%
52%
% under line
40%
40%
40%
54%
56%
52%
42%
36%
48%
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dundee Utd
11.7
Hamilton
11.6
Ross County
11.0
Hibernian
10.8
Rangers
10.8
ST Mirren
10.5
Kilmarnock
10.4
Celtic
10.4
ST Johnstone
10.0
Motherwell
10.0
Livingston
9.9
Aberdeen
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Motherwell
3.8
Kilmarnock
3.7
Rangers
3.6
Ross County
3.6
Hibernian
3.5
Dundee Utd
3.5
ST Johnstone
3.4
Aberdeen
3.3
Celtic
3.3
ST Mirren
3.1
Hamilton
3.0
Livingston
2.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.5
Hamilton
24.8
Motherwell
24.7
Ross County
24.6
ST Johnstone
24.1
Kilmarnock
24.1
Livingston
24.0
ST Mirren
23.5
Hibernian
23.4
Rangers
23.1
Dundee Utd
22.5
Celtic
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
62.3%
Under 9.5
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.4%
Under 3.5
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
73.1%
Under 21.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kilmarnock
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.77
0.85
0.77
0.53
0.76
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
0.91
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.83
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.68
0.75
0.62
0.45
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.47
0.86
0.64
0.94
0.31
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.40
0.50
1.50
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.22
0.40
0.40
0.75
0.00
vs Weaker (16)
1.25
0.31
1.29
0.57
1.22
0.11
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kilmarnock
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.85
0.46
0.35
0.94
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
0.82
0.60
0.40
0.50
1.17
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.68
1.00
0.50
0.27
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Hibernian) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hibernian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.86
0.71
0.44
0.81
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.60
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (16)
0.75
0.75
0.86
0.71
0.67
0.78
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hibernian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Kilmarnock · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Greg Kiltie33%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen33%
Joe Hugill33%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
Max Stryjek0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Bailey Rice0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joe Hugill67%
Tyreece John-Jules33%
Jamie Brandon33%
Bailey Rice33%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
Max Stryjek0%
George Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom Lowery67%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Max Stryjek0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
Joe Hugill0%
Bailey Rice0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Hugill33%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
Max Stryjek0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
Bailey Rice0%
Hibernian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Martin Boyle67%
Callum Wright67%
Felix Passlack25%
Jason Kerr25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Josh Mulligan0%
Jamie McGrath0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Felix Passlack25%
Josh Mulligan25%
Ante Šuto25%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Martin Boyle0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jamie McGrath0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Nathan Lowe0%
Adam Mayor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jamie McGrath33%
Felix Passlack25%
Josh Mulligan25%
Nathan Lowe25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Martin Boyle0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Martin Boyle33%
Jamie McGrath33%
Josh Mulligan25%
Nathan Lowe25%
Raphael Sallinger0%
Felix Passlack0%
Jason Kerr0%
Jordan Obita0%
Warren O'Hora0%
Callum Wright0%
Ante Šuto0%
Miguel Changa Chaiwa0%
Adam Mayor0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Kilmarnock's squad is €13m less valuable than Hibernian's (€7m vs €20m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Kilmarnock's attack is €5m less valuable than Hibernian's (€3m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Kilmarnock's midfield is €6m less valuable than Hibernian's (€2m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Kilmarnock's defence is €2m less valuable than Hibernian's (€3m vs €5m).
Scotland: Premiership 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Rangers
Celtic
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
ST Johnstone
Livingston
Motherwell
Dundee Utd
Ross County