Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren Result & Analysis

Defensive solidity will dominate this low-scoring encounter, with Kilmarnock’s home side averaging 1.38 goals conceded and ST Mirren’s away side only 0.67. The model favours a Kilmarnock win, with a 45% chance, followed by a 31% draw and a 25% away victory. The expected total is 2.2 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.2% chance. Kilmarnock’s home form sees them score 2.0 goals per game against similar opposition, while ST Mirren’s away form yields 1.0 goal per game. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 90.5%, Over 19.5 fouls at 83.9%, Under 3.5 at 81.1%, Under 4.5 cards at 79.8% and Over 21.5 fouls at 71.3%. The recent form narrative is that Kilmarnock come off a win, whereas ST Mirren return from a defeat.

The pre-match favourite, a home win for Kilmarnock at 45 percent, fell short as the match finished 1-1, a draw that surprised many. Kilmarnock, fresh from a win, had been tipped to dominate, but ST Mirren held them to a stalemate. The model’s call was wrong, and the final result was a draw. The model’s other selections performed largely as expected: Under 5.5 cards hit at 90.5 percent, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 83.9 percent, Under 3.5 hit at 81.1 percent, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 71.3 percent, while Under 4.5 cards missed at 79.8 percent. The game delivered a 1-1 scoreline, confirming the predicted most likely total of 2 goals.