Kilmarnock and ST Mirren face a finely balanced contest, with the model favouring a home win at 41%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 30%. The expected total of goals is 2.5, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.9% chance. Kilmarnock, playing at home against a similarly-sized opponent, averages 1.91 goals scored and 1.18 conceded, while ST Mirren, on the road, averages 1.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 91.6%, Over 19.5 fouls at 87.0%, Under 4.5 cards at 81.6%, Over 21.5 fouls at 75.8% (miss), Under 3.5 at 75.3% (miss) and Over 1.5 at 73.0%. Both sides have recently struggled, with Kilmarnock losing 0-4 to Dundee Utd and ST Mirren losing 1-5 to Rangers, adding further uncertainty to the outcome.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Kilmarnock, failed to deliver, as the match finished 3-3, a draw that left the model’s home-win call wrong. Kilmarnock, fresh from a 0-4 loss to Dundee Utd, had been in a shaky run, while ST Mirren, after a 1-5 defeat by Rangers, were also struggling. The model had assigned a 41% chance to a home win, yet the game ended level. Among the model’s selections, Under 5.5 cards hit at 91.6%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 87.0%, Under 4.5 cards hit at 81.6%, Over 21.5 fouls missed at 75.8%, Under 3.5 missed at 75.3%, and Over 1.5 hit at 73.0%. All figures appear only once.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kilmarnock win✗ Miss
41.2%
Avg Implied 47.4% · @ 1.99
Edge
-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
29.2%
Avg Implied 28.3% · @ 3.33
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren win✗ Miss
29.7%
Avg Implied 24.3% · @ 3.88
Edge
+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kilmarnock
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.40
1.40
1.40
0.53
1.40
vs Stronger (9)
0.00
1.67
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.40
vs Similar (21)
1.38
1.29
1.91
1.18
0.80
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.13
0.87
1.27
1.20
1.00
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
1.80
0.60
2.20
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (20)
1.25
0.80
1.00
0.80
1.50
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.0%
Under 1.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.2%
@ 2.17+2.7%
Under 2.5
53.8%
@ 1.67-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.7%
Under 3.5
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.2%
No
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
9.8%
0-0
9.3%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
7.9%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
7.2%
0-2
5.2%
Kilmarnock goals ↓
ST Mirren goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
7.9%
5.2%
2.0%
0.6%
1
9.8%
14%
7.2%
2.7%
0.8%
2
7.7%
8.7%
5.0%
1.9%
0.5%
3
3.5%
4.0%
2.3%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.2%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kilmarnock goals (down), columns = ST Mirren goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rangers
2.68
Celtic
2.03
Hibernian
1.66
Aberdeen
1.47
Livingston
1.18
ST Mirren
1.18
Motherwell
1.18
ST Johnstone
1.18
Dundee Utd
1.16
Ross County
1.03
Kilmarnock
0.95
Hamilton
0.79
Kilmarnock is 0.24 points worse than ST Mirren in terms of average points per game (0.95 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.42
Celtic
2.05
Hibernian
1.26
Kilmarnock
1.13
Livingston
1.11
Motherwell
1.03
ST Mirren
0.97
Aberdeen
0.95
ST Johnstone
0.95
Ross County
0.92
Hamilton
0.89
Dundee Utd
0.84
Kilmarnock is 0.16 goals better than ST Mirren in terms of goals scored per game (1.13 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rangers
0.34
Celtic
0.76
Hibernian
0.92
Aberdeen
1.00
ST Mirren
1.18
ST Johnstone
1.21
Dundee Utd
1.32
Livingston
1.42
Kilmarnock
1.42
Motherwell
1.45
Ross County
1.74
Hamilton
1.76
Kilmarnock is 0.24 goals worse than ST Mirren in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.18).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kilmarnock
For 4.8 · Against 3.6 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 15.4 · Total 29.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Mirren
For 5.3 · Against 5.9 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 0.9 · Total 2.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 12.1 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kilmarnock
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.3
10.6
3.6
3.7
3.6
25.8
26.2
25.4
vs Stronger (19)
11.7
10.8
12.5
3.1
3.7
2.5
24.9
25.4
24.4
vs Similar (31)
9.7
10.0
9.4
4.0
3.7
4.3
26.3
26.6
26.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
58%
54%
56%
58%
54%
82%
79%
85%
% under line
44%
42%
46%
44%
42%
46%
18%
21%
15%
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.1
11.3
3.1
3.2
3.0
23.8
24.6
23.0
vs Stronger (18)
9.8
9.1
10.4
2.7
3.0
2.4
23.6
25.6
21.7
vs Similar (32)
11.2
10.6
11.8
3.3
3.4
3.3
24.0
24.1
23.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
64%
56%
72%
38%
44%
32%
68%
76%
60%
% under line
36%
44%
28%
62%
56%
68%
32%
24%
40%
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rangers
11.2
Celtic
10.8
Ross County
10.8
Dundee Utd
10.7
ST Mirren
10.7
Hamilton
10.6
Kilmarnock
10.4
Motherwell
10.4
Hibernian
10.3
ST Johnstone
9.8
Aberdeen
9.3
Livingston
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Kilmarnock
3.6
Motherwell
3.6
Rangers
3.5
Dundee Utd
3.4
ST Johnstone
3.4
Ross County
3.4
Hamilton
3.2
Livingston
3.2
ST Mirren
3.1
Hibernian
3.1
Celtic
2.9
Aberdeen
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.3
Kilmarnock
25.8
Hibernian
25.2
ST Johnstone
25.1
Ross County
24.9
Motherwell
24.9
Livingston
24.6
Hamilton
24.4
ST Mirren
23.8
Rangers
23.6
Dundee Utd
23.1
Celtic
22.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
54.1%
Under 9.5
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.2%
Under 3.5
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
75.8%
Under 21.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kilmarnock
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.53
0.80
0.53
0.33
0.53
vs Stronger (9)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.75
0.00
0.60
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.48
1.09
0.45
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.63
0.33
0.80
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
1.00
0.40
1.20
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.45
0.30
0.60
0.50
0.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kilmarnock
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.87
0.60
0.87
0.20
0.87
vs Stronger (9)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.25
0.00
0.80
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.81
0.82
0.73
0.30
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.53
0.47
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.20
0.60
vs Similar (20)
0.85
0.35
0.70
0.20
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Kilmarnock · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Greg Kiltie33%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen33%
Joe Hugill33%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
Max Stryjek0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Bailey Rice0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joe Hugill67%
Tyreece John-Jules33%
Jamie Brandon33%
Bailey Rice33%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
Max Stryjek0%
George Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom Lowery67%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Max Stryjek0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
Joe Hugill0%
Bailey Rice0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Hugill33%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
Max Stryjek0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
Bailey Rice0%
ST Mirren · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jake Young15%
Jonah Ayunga13%
Mikael Mandron11%
Dan N'Lundulu11%
Miguel Freckleton11%
Killian Phillips8%
Keanu Baccus6%
Richard King6%
Alexander Gogić6%
Liam Donnelly6%
Scott Tanser5%
Conor McMenamin4%
Declan John3%
Marcus Fraser3%
Mark O'Hara0%
Kion Etete0%
Ross Sinclair0%
Allan Campbell0%
Shamal George0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Tunmise Sobowale0%
Malik Dijksteel0%
Fraser Taylor0%
Roland Idowu0%
Jalmaro Calvin0%
Jacob Devaney0%
Evan Mooney0%
Luke Douglas0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Keanu Baccus38%
Alexander Gogić36%
Killian Phillips24%
Fraser Taylor22%
Richard King22%
Marcus Fraser19%
Roland Idowu19%
Miguel Freckleton19%
Liam Donnelly18%
Jacob Devaney15%
Mikael Mandron11%
Shamal George9%
Allan Campbell8%
Dan N'Lundulu7%
Mark O'Hara4%
Jonah Ayunga4%
Conor McMenamin4%
Declan John3%
Jayden Richardson3%
Kion Etete0%
Ross Sinclair0%
Scott Tanser0%
Tunmise Sobowale0%
Jake Young0%
Malik Dijksteel0%
Jalmaro Calvin0%
Evan Mooney0%
Luke Douglas0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Scott Tanser18%
Declan John17%
Mikael Mandron14%
Jacob Devaney8%
Mark O'Hara4%
Conor McMenamin4%
Richard King3%
Alexander Gogić3%
Shamal George3%
Miguel Freckleton3%
Keanu Baccus0%
Kion Etete0%
Jonah Ayunga0%
Ross Sinclair0%
Liam Donnelly0%
Allan Campbell0%
Marcus Fraser0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Dan N'Lundulu0%
Tunmise Sobowale0%
Killian Phillips0%
Jake Young0%
Malik Dijksteel0%
Fraser Taylor0%
Roland Idowu0%
Jalmaro Calvin0%
Evan Mooney0%
Luke Douglas0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luke Douglas33%
Jonah Ayunga9%
Killian Phillips8%
Roland Idowu8%
Dan N'Lundulu7%
Keanu Baccus6%
Liam Donnelly6%
Alexander Gogić3%
Mark O'Hara0%
Mikael Mandron0%
Kion Etete0%
Declan John0%
Ross Sinclair0%
Scott Tanser0%
Allan Campbell0%
Marcus Fraser0%
Shamal George0%
Conor McMenamin0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Tunmise Sobowale0%
Jake Young0%
Malik Dijksteel0%
Richard King0%
Fraser Taylor0%
Jalmaro Calvin0%
Miguel Freckleton0%
Jacob Devaney0%
Evan Mooney0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Kilmarnock and ST Mirren have a similar squad value (both €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Kilmarnock's attack is €1m more valuable than ST Mirren's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Kilmarnock's midfield is €1m less valuable than ST Mirren's (€2m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Kilmarnock and ST Mirren have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Scotland: Premiership 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Rangers
Celtic
Hibernian
Aberdeen
ST Johnstone
Livingston
Motherwell
Dundee Utd
Ross County