Kilmarnock are the clear favourites, with a 48% chance of victory, 28% for a draw and 24% for ST Mirren to win. The model expects 2.6 goals on average, with a 26% chance of exactly two goals. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.2% probability. Kilmarnock, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average 1.86 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded, while ST Mirren, away, average 1.0 scored and 1.17 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.8%), Under 5.5 (94.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.1%), Home +2 handicap (90.7%) and Under 4.5 (87.3%). The match is poised for a close contest, with Kilmarnock’s recent form still recovering from a 0-4 loss and ST Mirren coming off a 3-3 draw.
Results analysis
The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, Kilmarnock, failed to secure the win the model had pegged at a 48 percent chance. The game finished 2-2, a draw that left the model’s call wrong. Kilmarnock, who were coming off a 0-4 defeat to Dundee Utd and had a recent form of LWLLD, could not convert their home advantage into a result, while ST Mirren, after a 3-3 draw with Motherwell, matched them 2-2. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.8%), Under 5.5 (94.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.1%), Home +2 handicap (90.7%) and Under 4.5 (87.3%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kilmarnock win✗ Miss
48.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren win✗ Miss
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kilmarnock
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.33
1.67
0.83
0.92
2.08
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
2.33
1.00
2.00
1.20
2.60
vs Similar (21)
1.48
0.90
1.86
0.50
0.71
1.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.27
1.87
1.33
1.27
1.20
vs Stronger (15)
1.20
1.40
1.25
1.50
1.14
1.29
vs Similar (12)
1.33
1.08
1.67
1.00
1.00
1.17
vs Weaker (3)
4.33
1.33
8.00
2.00
2.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.0%
Under 1.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.9%
Under 2.5
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.0%
Under 3.5
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.8%
No
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
9.0%
0-0
8.4%
0-1
6.4%
1-2
6.3%
3-1
5.0%
Kilmarnock goals ↓
ST Mirren goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.4%
6.4%
4.0%
1.4%
0.4%
1
10%
13%
6.3%
2.2%
0.6%
2
9.0%
9.4%
5.0%
1.7%
0.5%
3
4.7%
5.0%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.9%
2.0%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kilmarnock goals (down), columns = ST Mirren goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Aberdeen
2.57
Celtic
2.50
Dundee
2.50
Rangers
2.50
Ross County
2.40
Ayr Utd
2.25
Livingston
2.25
Dundee Utd
2.00
Falkirk
2.00
Spartans
2.00
Queen's Park
1.80
ST Johnstone
1.80
Airdrie United
1.80
Hibernian
1.80
Partick
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.75
Raith Rovers
1.75
Montrose
1.75
East Fife
1.75
Alloa Athletic
1.75
Motherwell
1.71
Morton
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Peterhead
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Hamilton Academical
1.25
Arbroath
1.00
Kelty Hearts
1.00
Kilmarnock
1.00
Inverness CT
1.00
Forfar
1.00
Cove Rangers
1.00
Dunfermline
0.75
Stenhousemuir
0.75
Stirling
0.50
Elgin
0.25
Stranraer
0.25
East Kilbride
0.25
Dumbarton
0.25
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
0.25
ST Mirren
0.00
Edinburgh City
0.00
Heart Of Midlothian
0.00
Brechin
0.00
Kilmarnock is 1.00 points better than ST Mirren in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
4.25
Dundee
4.00
Queen's Park
3.20
Airdrie United
3.20
Hibernian
3.00
Aberdeen
2.86
Partick
2.75
Falkirk
2.50
Rangers
2.50
Ayr Utd
2.25
Clyde
2.25
ST Johnstone
2.20
Dundee Utd
2.00
East Fife
2.00
Ross County
2.00
Annan Athletic
1.75
Raith Rovers
1.75
Alloa Athletic
1.75
Montrose
1.50
Motherwell
1.43
Spartans
1.33
Livingston
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Hamilton Academical
1.25
Peterhead
1.25
Queen of the South
1.25
Dunfermline
1.00
Stranraer
1.00
Dumbarton
1.00
Morton
0.75
Elgin
0.75
Inverness CT
0.75
Forfar
0.75
Cove Rangers
0.75
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
0.75
Kelty Hearts
0.50
Stirling
0.50
Brechin
0.50
East Kilbride
0.50
Arbroath
0.25
Edinburgh City
0.25
ST Mirren
0.00
Kilmarnock
0.00
Heart Of Midlothian
0.00
Kilmarnock and ST Mirren are level in goals scored per game (both 0.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kilmarnock
0.00
Livingston
0.25
Motherwell
0.71
Hamilton Academical
0.75
Ross County
0.80
ST Mirren
1.00
Aberdeen
1.00
Raith Rovers
1.00
Dundee
1.00
Rangers
1.00
Hibernian
1.00
Forfar
1.00
Dundee Utd
1.17
Falkirk
1.17
Spartans
1.17
Queen's Park
1.20
Ayr Utd
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Partick
1.25
Annan Athletic
1.25
Dunfermline
1.25
Montrose
1.25
East Fife
1.25
Alloa Athletic
1.25
ST Johnstone
1.40
Morton
1.50
Celtic
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Inverness CT
1.75
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Stirling
2.00
Heart Of Midlothian
2.00
Airdrie United
2.20
Cove Rangers
2.25
Brechin
2.50
Stranraer
2.50
Stenhousemuir
2.75
Peterhead
2.75
Dumbarton
3.25
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
3.25
Elgin
3.50
Edinburgh City
4.00
East Kilbride
4.00
Kilmarnock is 1.00 goals better than ST Mirren in terms of goals conceded per game (0.00 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kilmarnock
For 4.4 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 12.0 · Total 25.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Mirren
For 4.2 · Against 7.4 · Total 11.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 8.9 · Total 19.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kilmarnock
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
9.9
11.4
3.7
3.6
3.8
22.6
22.3
23.0
vs Stronger (18)
10.8
9.8
12.0
3.9
4.1
3.8
21.8
22.9
20.6
vs Similar (32)
10.5
9.9
11.1
3.6
3.4
3.8
23.1
21.8
24.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
66%
50%
82%
52%
48%
56%
55%
55%
55%
% under line
34%
50%
18%
48%
52%
44%
45%
45%
45%
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.6
10.2
4.0
4.4
3.6
21.3
21.1
21.4
vs Stronger (23)
11.0
10.2
11.6
4.5
5.1
3.8
21.3
21.2
21.5
vs Similar (24)
9.8
10.9
8.6
4.0
4.0
4.1
21.2
21.0
21.4
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
64%
67%
62%
50%
52%
48%
52%
52%
52%
% under line
36%
33%
38%
50%
48%
52%
48%
48%
48%
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Celtic
11.9
Ross County
11.7
Hibernian
11.6
Aberdeen
11.3
Falkirk
11.3
Motherwell
11.2
East Kilbride
11.2
Rangers
11.2
Morton
11.0
Dumbarton
10.8
Dundee Utd
10.8
ST Johnstone
10.6
Kilmarnock
10.6
ST Mirren
10.5
Airdrie United
10.4
Dunfermline
10.3
Dundee
10.3
Stirling
10.3
Heart Of Midlothian
10.3
Partick
10.2
Arbroath
10.1
Brechin
10.0
Clyde
9.9
Kelty Hearts
9.9
Elgin
9.8
Cove Rangers
9.7
East Fife
9.7
Annan Athletic
9.7
Montrose
9.4
Stenhousemuir
9.3
Forfar
9.2
Stranraer
9.2
Livingston
9.1
Spartans
9.1
Edinburgh City
9.1
Peterhead
8.9
Inverness CT
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
6.5
Peterhead
5.2
Hamilton Academical
5.0
Morton
5.0
Aberdeen
5.0
Elgin
4.9
Edinburgh City
4.9
Forfar
4.8
Ayr Utd
4.8
Hibernian
4.6
Dundee Utd
4.5
Stirling
4.5
ST Mirren
4.5
Motherwell
4.4
East Fife
4.3
Falkirk
4.3
Clyde
4.2
Heart Of Midlothian
4.2
Partick
4.1
Stranraer
4.1
Kilmarnock
4.1
Spartans
4.0
Rangers
4.0
Livingston
3.9
ST Johnstone
3.9
Stenhousemuir
3.9
Annan Athletic
3.7
Dumbarton
3.7
Montrose
3.7
Dundee
3.7
Dunfermline
3.6
Brechin
3.5
Airdrie United
3.5
Kelty Hearts
3.4
Celtic
3.4
Inverness CT
3.4
Ross County
3.4
Arbroath
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
Cove Rangers
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
East Kilbride
27.7
Forfar
25.2
Peterhead
24.5
Edinburgh City
24.3
Elgin
24.2
Livingston
23.9
Aberdeen
23.8
East Fife
23.6
Motherwell
23.0
Clyde
22.9
Kilmarnock
22.6
Stenhousemuir
22.5
Falkirk
22.5
Heart Of Midlothian
22.5
Morton
22.2
ST Johnstone
22.1
Stirling
21.8
Spartans
21.7
Inverness CT
21.7
Rangers
21.2
Dundee Utd
21.2
ST Mirren
21.1
Ross County
20.6
Stranraer
20.5
Airdrie United
20.5
Hibernian
20.4
Brechin
20.4
Annan Athletic
20.3
Montrose
20.3
Dunfermline
20.1
Dundee
20.1
Kelty Hearts
20.1
Partick
19.9
Arbroath
19.9
Dumbarton
19.6
Cove Rangers
19.5
Celtic
18.9
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
45.2%
Under 9.5
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
51.8%
Under 3.5
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
69.3%
Under 21.5
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kilmarnock or Draw✓ Hit
76.0%
Avg Implied -
48%
28%
24%
covers Kilmarnock + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock or ST Mirren✗ Miss
72.5%
Avg Implied -
48%
28%
24%
covers Kilmarnock + ST Mirren
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or ST Mirren✓ Hit
51.5%
Avg Implied -
48%
28%
24%
covers Draw + ST Mirren
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.4%
Under
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
46.9%
Under
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.2%
Under
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
65.0%
Under
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
28.2%
Under
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.9%
Under
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kilmarnock, so a minus line means Kilmarnock give that many goals of a start and ST Mirren receive them. At -1, Kilmarnock must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kilmarnock win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kilmarnock)Actual: ST Mirren
Kilmarnock -2
10.7%
Draw -2
15.1%
ST Mirren +2
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kilmarnock)Actual: ST Mirren
Kilmarnock -1
25.8%
Draw -1
22.7%
ST Mirren +1
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kilmarnock)Actual: Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock +1
76.0%
Draw +1
14.6%
ST Mirren -1
9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kilmarnock)Actual: Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock +2
90.7%
Draw +2
6.7%
ST Mirren -2
2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kilmarnock
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.83
0.17
0.42
1.08
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.22
0.50
0.50
0.60
1.80
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.24
0.93
0.07
0.29
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.40
0.93
0.47
0.60
0.33
vs Stronger (15)
0.60
0.47
0.75
0.62
0.43
0.29
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.33
0.83
0.17
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.33
3.00
1.00
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kilmarnock
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.80
0.83
0.67
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.11
0.50
1.50
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.67
0.93
0.43
0.43
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.87
0.93
0.87
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (15)
0.60
0.93
0.50
0.88
0.71
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.75
0.83
0.83
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.00
5.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Kilmarnock
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joe Hugill40%
Tyreece John-Jules33%
Djenairo Daniels29%
Findlay Curtis29%
Nicky Cleșcenco20%
Greg Kiltie12%
Bruce Anderson11%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen11%
George Stanger10%
David Watson9%
Scott Tiffoney8%
Marcus Dackers8%
Marley Watkins7%
Ben Brannan6%
Robbie Deas6%
Tom Lowery5%
Liam Polworth3%
Bradley Lyons3%
Kelle Roos0%
Max Stryjek0%
Aaron Tshibola0%
Rory McKenzie0%
Jamie Brandon0%
Kyle Magennis0%
James Brown0%
Jack Thomson0%
Lewis Mayo0%
Dominic Thompson0%
Eddie Beach0%
Zac Williams0%
Toby Oluwayemi0%
Ethan Brown0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kyle Magennis33%
Robbie Deas33%
George Stanger30%
Bradley Lyons29%
Djenairo Daniels29%
David Watson24%
Aaron Tshibola21%
Joe Hugill20%
Jamie Brandon17%
Marcus Dackers17%
Dominic Thompson16%
Tom Lowery14%
James Brown13%
Jack Thomson12%
Lewis Mayo12%
Greg Kiltie12%
Ben Brannan12%
Liam Polworth10%
Bruce Anderson9%
Findlay Curtis7%
Tyreece John-Jules6%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen6%
Ethan Brown6%
Kelle Roos0%
Marley Watkins0%
Max Stryjek0%
Rory McKenzie0%
Scott Tiffoney0%
Nicky Cleșcenco0%
Eddie Beach0%
Zac Williams0%
Toby Oluwayemi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Greg Kiltie21%
James Brown13%
Joe Hugill13%
Tyreece John-Jules11%
Scott Tiffoney8%
Marley Watkins7%
Findlay Curtis7%
Bruce Anderson6%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen6%
Robbie Deas6%
Dominic Thompson5%
Tom Lowery5%
Liam Polworth3%
Bradley Lyons3%
David Watson3%
Kelle Roos0%
Max Stryjek0%
Aaron Tshibola0%
Rory McKenzie0%
Jamie Brandon0%
George Stanger0%
Kyle Magennis0%
Jack Thomson0%
Lewis Mayo0%
Nicky Cleșcenco0%
Djenairo Daniels0%
Marcus Dackers0%
Eddie Beach0%
Zac Williams0%
Toby Oluwayemi0%
Ethan Brown0%
Ben Brannan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Findlay Curtis43%
Tyreece John-Jules22%
Joe Hugill20%
Djenairo Daniels14%
Marcus Dackers12%
David Watson6%
Bruce Anderson6%
Greg Kiltie3%
Tom Lowery0%
Kelle Roos0%
Marley Watkins0%
Max Stryjek0%
Aaron Tshibola0%
Rory McKenzie0%
Jamie Brandon0%
Scott Tiffoney0%
George Stanger0%
Bradley Lyons0%
Kyle Magennis0%
Liam Polworth0%
Michael Schjønning-Larsen0%
James Brown0%
Jack Thomson0%
Lewis Mayo0%
Dominic Thompson0%
Robbie Deas0%
Nicky Cleșcenco0%
Eddie Beach0%
Zac Williams0%
Toby Oluwayemi0%
Ethan Brown0%
Ben Brannan0%
ST Mirren
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jake Young15%
Jonah Ayunga13%
Mikael Mandron11%
Dan N'Lundulu11%
Miguel Freckleton11%
Killian Phillips8%
Keanu Baccus6%
Richard King6%
Alexander Gogić6%
Liam Donnelly6%
Scott Tanser5%
Conor McMenamin4%
Declan John3%
Marcus Fraser3%
Mark O'Hara0%
Kion Etete0%
Ross Sinclair0%
Allan Campbell0%
Shamal George0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Tunmise Sobowale0%
Malik Dijksteel0%
Fraser Taylor0%
Roland Idowu0%
Jalmaro Calvin0%
Jacob Devaney0%
Evan Mooney0%
Luke Douglas0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Keanu Baccus38%
Alexander Gogić36%
Killian Phillips24%
Fraser Taylor22%
Richard King22%
Marcus Fraser19%
Roland Idowu19%
Miguel Freckleton19%
Liam Donnelly18%
Jacob Devaney15%
Mikael Mandron11%
Shamal George9%
Allan Campbell8%
Dan N'Lundulu7%
Mark O'Hara4%
Jonah Ayunga4%
Conor McMenamin4%
Declan John3%
Jayden Richardson3%
Kion Etete0%
Ross Sinclair0%
Scott Tanser0%
Tunmise Sobowale0%
Jake Young0%
Malik Dijksteel0%
Jalmaro Calvin0%
Evan Mooney0%
Luke Douglas0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Scott Tanser18%
Declan John17%
Mikael Mandron14%
Jacob Devaney8%
Mark O'Hara4%
Conor McMenamin4%
Richard King3%
Alexander Gogić3%
Shamal George3%
Miguel Freckleton3%
Keanu Baccus0%
Kion Etete0%
Jonah Ayunga0%
Ross Sinclair0%
Liam Donnelly0%
Allan Campbell0%
Marcus Fraser0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Dan N'Lundulu0%
Tunmise Sobowale0%
Killian Phillips0%
Jake Young0%
Malik Dijksteel0%
Fraser Taylor0%
Roland Idowu0%
Jalmaro Calvin0%
Evan Mooney0%
Luke Douglas0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luke Douglas33%
Jonah Ayunga9%
Killian Phillips8%
Roland Idowu8%
Dan N'Lundulu7%
Keanu Baccus6%
Liam Donnelly6%
Alexander Gogić3%
Mark O'Hara0%
Mikael Mandron0%
Kion Etete0%
Declan John0%
Ross Sinclair0%
Scott Tanser0%
Allan Campbell0%
Marcus Fraser0%
Shamal George0%
Conor McMenamin0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Tunmise Sobowale0%
Jake Young0%
Malik Dijksteel0%
Richard King0%
Fraser Taylor0%
Jalmaro Calvin0%
Miguel Freckleton0%
Jacob Devaney0%
Evan Mooney0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
KH (4)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Kilmarnock and ST Mirren have a similar squad value (both €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Kilmarnock's attack is €1m more valuable than ST Mirren's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Kilmarnock's midfield is €1m less valuable than ST Mirren's (€2m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Kilmarnock and ST Mirren have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Scotland: Premiership 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Celtic
Heart Of Midlothian
Rangers
Motherwell
Hibernian
Falkirk
Dundee Utd
Dundee
Aberdeen
Livingston
Partick
Dunfermline
Arbroath