Kilmarnock and ST Mirren face a finely balanced contest, with the model favouring a home win. The expected total is three goals, but the most likely total is two, a 1-1 draw occurring with a 12.2% chance. Kilmarnock, who have scored an average of 1.8 and conceded 1.5 at home against similarly-matched teams, are set to host ST Mirren, who average 1.55 goals scored and 1.18 conceded away. The probabilities for the match result are 37% for a Kilmarnock victory, 26% for a draw and 37% for an ST Mirren win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 98.8%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.3% with a 6% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.9% with a 6% edge, Under 6.5 goals at 96.5% with a 1% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.1% with a 5% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.8% with a 6% edge, Home under 3.5 goals at 93.4% with a 2% edge and Away under 3.5 goals at 93.2%. Both sides have recently come off defeats, adding to the uncertainty of the outcome.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved accurate as ST Mirren secured a 1-0 away win, extending their recent run of five matches with a victory. The pre-match favourite, Away win, was chosen with a 37% probability and the outcome matched the model’s call. The model’s selections largely hit: Under 7.5 goals (98.8%) was correct, Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.5%) and Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.9%) both hit, as did Under 6.5 (96.5%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.1%) and Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.9%). Home under 3.5 goals (93.4%) and Away under 3.5 goals (93.2%) also landed. The match finished 0-1, confirming the model’s overall assessment.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kilmarnock win✗ Miss
36.4%
Avg Implied 34.5% · @ 2.72
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.80
Superbet
2.80
Betano
2.77
1xBet
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Draw✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.51
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.69
Dafabet
3.65
BetVictor
3.60
Bet365
3.60
Superbet
3.55
ST Mirren win✓ Hit
37.2%
Avg Implied 38.8% · @ 2.42
Edge
-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.51
Betfair
2.45
Bet365
2.45
Betano
2.45
Dafabet
2.45
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kilmarnock
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.77
1.69
1.62
1.14
1.93
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
3.17
1.25
2.75
0.50
4.00
vs Similar (23)
1.57
1.48
1.91
1.36
1.25
1.58
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.40
1.07
1.43
1.56
1.38
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
1.38
1.00
0.33
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.33
1.48
1.09
1.73
1.60
1.20
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
81.6%
@ 1.18+2.3%
Under 1.5
18.4%
@ 4.53-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Under
Pinnacle
5.09
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.75
Bet365
4.50
Betano
4.45
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.2%
@ 1.65+0.8%
Under 2.5
41.8%
@ 2.22-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.79
Bet365
1.67
Unibet
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Under
Pinnacle
2.39
Betano
2.30
Betfair
2.30
Marathonbet
2.29
Superbet
2.27
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.8%
@ 2.53-1.3%
Under 3.5
64.2%
@ 1.49+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
BetVictor
2.60
Unibet
2.60
10Bet
2.60
Betano
2.57
Under
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Bet365
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.9%
@ 1.50+0.1%
No
38.1%
@ 2.43-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.53
10Bet
1.53
William Hil
1.53
1xBet
1.51
Superbet
1.51
No
Betfair
2.63
Superbet
2.45
Betano
2.45
Marathonbet
2.43
William Hil
2.40
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%@ 6.60+5.4%
1-2
8.5%@ 8.61+3.2%
2-1
8.3%@ 9.40+3.6%
2-2
6.4%@ 10.51+2.1%
0-1 ✓
6.3%@ 10.02+1.8%
1-0
6.2%@ 10.73+2.0%
0-0
6.0%@ 12.82+2.4%
0-2
5.6%@ 13.03+2.2%
Kilmarnock goals ↓
ST Mirren goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
6.3%
5.6%
2.9%
1.1%
1
6.2%
12%
8.5%
4.3%
1.6%
2
5.5%
8.3%
6.4%
3.2%
1.2%
3
2.7%
4.2%
3.2%
1.6%
0.6%
4
1.0%
1.6%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kilmarnock goals (down), columns = ST Mirren goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.16
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Rangers
1.89
Motherwell
1.61
Hibernian
1.50
Falkirk
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.18
Dundee
1.11
Kilmarnock
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.05
ST Mirren
0.95
Kilmarnock is 0.10 points better than ST Mirren in terms of average points per game (1.05 vs 0.95).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.00
Celtic
1.92
Heart Of Midlothian
1.76
Motherwell
1.55
Hibernian
1.53
Kilmarnock
1.32
Falkirk
1.32
Dundee Utd
1.29
Dundee
1.11
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.00
ST Mirren
0.80
Kilmarnock is 0.52 goals better than ST Mirren in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 0.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Motherwell
0.95
Celtic
1.08
Rangers
1.13
Hibernian
1.16
ST Mirren
1.40
Aberdeen
1.45
ST Johnstone
1.56
Dundee Utd
1.58
Dundee
1.61
Falkirk
1.63
Kilmarnock
1.79
Kilmarnock is 0.39 goals worse than ST Mirren in terms of goals conceded per game (1.79 vs 1.40).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
66%
Rangers
58%
Motherwell
58%
Heart Of Midlothian
53%
Falkirk
51%
Aberdeen
48%
Hibernian
47%
ST Mirren
46%
Dundee
44%
Kilmarnock
42%
Dundee Utd
42%
Kilmarnock is 3.8 percentage points worse than ST Mirren in terms of average possession (42% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kilmarnock
For 4.2 · Against 4.5 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 10.9 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Mirren
For 6.1 · Against 5.0 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 10.2 · Total 21.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kilmarnock
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.3
9.9
4.0
4.1
3.9
24.3
25.1
23.5
vs Stronger (13)
11.2
10.7
11.7
3.8
4.1
3.5
22.1
23.7
20.2
vs Similar (36)
8.9
8.6
9.2
4.1
4.2
4.0
25.9
27.0
24.9
vs Weaker (1)
9.0
9.0
-
1.0
1.0
-
9.0
9.0
-
% over line
49%
41%
57%
62%
64%
59%
72%
82%
62%
% under line
51%
59%
43%
38%
36%
41%
28%
18%
38%
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
10.6
11.7
2.9
3.3
2.5
22.5
20.3
25.1
vs Stronger (16)
10.4
10.1
10.7
3.0
3.9
2.1
22.9
21.9
24.0
vs Similar (33)
11.5
10.8
12.3
2.9
3.0
2.9
22.3
19.4
25.7
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
72%
71%
72%
36%
54%
19%
62%
48%
78%
% under line
28%
29%
28%
64%
46%
81%
38%
52%
22%
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
ST Mirren
11.2
Celtic
10.8
Dundee Utd
10.5
Hibernian
10.4
Heart Of Midlothian
10.3
Aberdeen
10.2
Rangers
10.1
ST Johnstone
10.1
Dundee
9.8
Falkirk
9.6
Kilmarnock
9.4
Motherwell
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aberdeen
4.8
Motherwell
4.7
Hibernian
4.7
Heart Of Midlothian
4.6
Rangers
4.3
Kilmarnock
4.2
Falkirk
4.2
Dundee Utd
4.1
ST Johnstone
4.0
Celtic
3.9
Dundee
3.7
ST Mirren
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rangers
26.6
Motherwell
26.0
Aberdeen
25.8
Falkirk
25.2
Kilmarnock
24.3
Heart Of Midlothian
24.3
Hibernian
23.2
ST Mirren
22.1
Dundee Utd
22.0
ST Johnstone
22.0
Dundee
21.7
Celtic
21.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
56.0%
@ 1.62-1.0%
Under 9.5
44.0%
@ 2.15+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Under
Pinnacle
2.28
Unibet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
1xBet
2.15
Superbet
2.12
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.7%
@ 1.39-11.7%
Under 3.5
45.3%
@ 2.73+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.41
Superbet
1.40
Betano
1.35
Under
Betano
3.05
Superbet
2.60
Unibet
2.55
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
74.7%
Under 21.5
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kilmarnock or Draw✗ Miss
62.8%
Avg Implied 60.8% · @ 1.54
Edge
+2.0%
36%
26%
37%
covers Kilmarnock + Draw
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.57
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Kilmarnock or ST Mirren✓ Hit
73.6%
Avg Implied 73.5% · @ 1.27
Edge
+0.1%
36%
26%
37%
covers Kilmarnock + ST Mirren
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Draw or ST Mirren✓ Hit
63.6%
Avg Implied 65.7% · @ 1.42
Edge
-2.1%
36%
26%
37%
covers Draw + ST Mirren
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.47
Unibet
1.46
Superbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
77.8%
@ 1.23+2.2%
Under
22.2%
@ 3.81-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
Under
Pinnacle
4.34
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
3.85
BetVictor
3.80
Betano
3.75
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
44.3%
@ 2.13+0.3%
Under
55.7%
@ 1.67-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.19
Pinnacle
2.16
10Bet
2.15
BetVictor
2.15
Betano
2.12
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Marathonbet
1.71
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.2%
@ 4.69-0.7%
Under
80.8%
@ 1.16+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
10Bet
4.75
1xBet
4.75
Under
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Kilmarnock over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.6%
@ 10.45-2.4%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.03+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Unibet
10.50
1xBet
10.50
Betfair
10.00
Under
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
ST Mirren over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.2%
@ 1.20+0.5%
Under
21.8%
@ 4.18-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.24
Unibet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.25
BetVictor
4.20
ST Mirren over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
44.9%
@ 1.99-2.1%
Under
55.1%
@ 1.77+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.04
Pinnacle
2.03
1xBet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
Betano
1.78
ST Mirren over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.7%
@ 4.17-2.7%
Under
80.3%
@ 1.20+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.33
Unibet
4.25
Pinnacle
4.23
10Bet
4.20
Under
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
ST Mirren over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.8%
@ 8.93-3.6%
Under
93.2%
@ 1.04+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
9.50
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.90
1xBet
8.70
Under
Bet365
1.06
Betano
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kilmarnock, so a minus line means Kilmarnock give that many goals of a start and ST Mirren receive them. At -1, Kilmarnock must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kilmarnock win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kilmarnock)Actual: ST Mirren
Kilmarnock -2
6.9%
@ 10.68-1.4%
Draw -2
11.1%
@ 7.02-1.6%
ST Mirren +2
82.0%
@ 1.12+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
10Bet
11.00
Unibet
10.50
Superbet
10.00
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Away
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Handicap -1 (Kilmarnock)Actual: ST Mirren
Kilmarnock -1
18.0%
@ 5.12+0.5%
Draw -1
18.4%
@ 4.43-1.8%
ST Mirren +1
63.6%
@ 1.44+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
4.90
Marathonbet
4.80
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Unibet
4.25
Away
Superbet
1.48
Unibet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Handicap +1 (Kilmarnock)Actual: Draw
Kilmarnock +1
62.8%
@ 1.53+4.2%
Draw +1
18.6%
@ 4.20-2.7%
ST Mirren -1
18.6%
@ 4.49-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.25
Betfair
4.20
Superbet
4.15
Unibet
4.10
Away
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
4.50
Unibet
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.25
Handicap +2 (Kilmarnock)Actual: Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock +2
81.4%
@ 1.16+4.0%
Draw +2
11.3%
@ 6.76-2.0%
ST Mirren -2
7.2%
@ 9.70-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.75
Unibet
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Away
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
9.50
10Bet
9.00
Superbet
8.40
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kilmarnock
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.81
0.62
0.43
0.86
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.17
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.65
0.91
0.55
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.43
0.64
0.75
0.69
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.88
0.33
0.33
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.62
0.45
0.73
0.80
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.9%
@ 1.30-0.7%
Under 0.5
29.1%
@ 3.29+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.32
BetVictor
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.32
William Hil
3.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.1%
@ 2.38-6.1%
Under 1.5
66.9%
@ 1.53+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.47
William Hil
2.45
Unibet
2.40
Pinnacle
2.40
Betfair
2.40
Under
Superbet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.58
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.54
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.5%
@ 5.42-4.6%
Under 2.5
87.5%
@ 1.12+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.00
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
William Hil
5.50
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
45.7%
@ 1.96-2.0%
Under
54.3%
@ 1.78+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.00
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.96
Superbet
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.86
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Unibet
1.78
Superbet
1.77
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.6%
@ 5.76-2.5%
Under
86.4%
@ 1.10+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
6.00
1xBet
6.00
Marathonbet
5.70
Superbet
5.65
Betano
5.60
Under
Betano
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 14.75-4.3%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
42.3%
@ 1.87-7.5%
Under
57.7%
@ 1.85+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.86
10Bet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Superbet
1.88
Betano
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.7%
@ 5.29-6.8%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.12+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
5.50
1xBet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Betano
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 13.50-5.5%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kilmarnock
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.03
0.88
1.00
0.71
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
2.00
0.50
1.75
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.83
1.00
0.82
0.75
0.83
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.73
0.64
0.79
0.81
0.69
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.50
0.67
0.00
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.86
0.64
1.00
0.80
0.70
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
78.2%
@ 1.17-1.5%
Under 0.5
21.8%
@ 4.59+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Unibet
1.16
Under
Betano
4.70
Marathonbet
4.65
Superbet
4.65
Unibet
4.60
10Bet
4.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
44.7%
@ 1.83-6.2%
Under 1.5
55.3%
@ 1.90+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.91
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Unibet
1.81
Under
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.96
10Bet
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Unibet
1.90
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.1%
@ 3.50-8.5%
Under 2.5
81.9%
@ 1.27+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.60
Unibet
3.60
William Hil
3.60
1xBet
3.42
Under
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
53.0%
@ 1.66-2.7%
Under
47.0%
@ 2.08+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.70
1xBet
1.65
Superbet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Under
Betano
2.15
Superbet
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.01
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.5%
@ 4.06-5.3%
Under
82.5%
@ 1.20+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.25
Superbet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Betano
3.90
Under
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 10.50-5.0%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.03+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
50.4%
@ 1.62-6.8%
Under
49.6%
@ 2.17+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.73
Superbet
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Betano
1.57
Under
Betano
2.30
Superbet
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Marathonbet
1.97
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.9%
@ 3.75-8.8%
Under
84.1%
@ 1.23+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.85
10Bet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.74
1xBet
3.74
Betano
3.60
Under
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 9.25-6.0%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.04+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.8%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.9%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.4%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.06
Betano
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
91.4%
1.05
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.3%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.5%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.4%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.1%
1.23
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+8.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.5%
1.20
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
82.0%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.9%
1.27
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.25
+8.5%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.6%
1.18
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Superbet
1.19
+2.3%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
81.4%
1.16
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
81.1%
1.18
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
80.8%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
80.3%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.1%
1.53
1xBet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.41
Unibet
1.40
+19.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.2%
1.17
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Unibet
1.16
-1.5%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
78.2%
1.20
Marathonbet
1.24
Unibet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
77.8%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
+2.2%
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.6%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.9%
1.30
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.32
BetVictor
1.30
-0.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Kilmarnock
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Greg Kiltie25%
M. Schjønning-Larsen25%
Joe Hugill25%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
J. Brandon0%
G. Stanger0%
E. Ring0%
B. Rice0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joe Hugill50%
B. Rice50%
Tyreece John-Jules25%
J. Brandon25%
Greg Kiltie25%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
G. Stanger0%
M. Schjønning-Larsen0%
E. Ring0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom Lowery50%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
J. Brandon0%
G. Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
M. Schjønning-Larsen0%
E. Ring0%
Joe Hugill0%
B. Rice0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Hugill25%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
J. Brandon0%
G. Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
M. Schjønning-Larsen0%
E. Ring0%
B. Rice0%
ST Mirren
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
D. John33%
Samuel Ramos33%
P. Nsio25%
Luke Thomas0%
Alexander Gogić0%
C. Mochrie0%
J. Richardson0%
J. Chapman0%
J. Young0%
Henry Fieldson0%
Ryan Carr0%
Eseosa Sule0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ryan Carr75%
Henry Fieldson33%
Luke Thomas25%
J. Richardson25%
J. Young25%
D. John0%
Alexander Gogić0%
C. Mochrie0%
J. Chapman0%
P. Nsio0%
Eseosa Sule0%
Samuel Ramos0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Henry Fieldson33%
Samuel Ramos33%
Alexander Gogić25%
D. John0%
Luke Thomas0%
C. Mochrie0%
J. Richardson0%
J. Chapman0%
J. Young0%
Ryan Carr0%
P. Nsio0%
Eseosa Sule0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Eseosa Sule50%
D. John0%
Luke Thomas0%
Alexander Gogić0%
C. Mochrie0%
J. Richardson0%
J. Chapman0%
J. Young0%
Henry Fieldson0%
Ryan Carr0%
P. Nsio0%
Samuel Ramos0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
Kilmarnock and ST Mirren have a similar squad value (both €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
Kilmarnock's attack is €1m more valuable than ST Mirren's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
Kilmarnock's midfield is €1m less valuable than ST Mirren's (€2m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
Kilmarnock and ST Mirren have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Scotland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Celtic
Heart Of Midlothian
Motherwell
Dundee
Rangers
Hibernian
ST Johnstone
Dundee Utd
Aberdeen
Falkirk