The match between Kiryat Yam SC and Hapoel Kfar Saba is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. The probabilities are 30% for a home victory, 30% for a draw and 39% for an away triumph, making the latter the most likely outcome. Fans can expect a modest total of 2.4 goals, with the single most probable scoreline being 1-1, which carries a 14.3% chance. Kiryat Yam, playing at home against a team of similar strength, averages 1.08 goals scored and 1.31 conceded, while Hapoel Kfar Saba, on the road, averages 1.44 scored and 1.12 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.4%), Under 5.5 (96.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.9%), Under 4.5 (90.7%), Home under 2.5 goals (90.1%) and Away +2 handicap (87.5%). Recent form shows Kiryat Yam struggling after two defeats, while Hapoel Kfar Saba has just secured a win, adding further intrigue to the encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kiryat Yam SC win
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Saba win
39.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kiryat Yam SC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.33
1.08
1.31
1.47
1.35
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.30
1.33
1.08
1.31
1.47
1.35
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Kfar Saba) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Kfar Saba
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.43
1.43
1.79
1.44
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.43
1.43
1.43
1.79
1.44
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Kiryat Yam SC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.9%
Under 1.5
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
42.3%
Under 2.5
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.6%
Under 3.5
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.3%
No
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-0
10.6%
0-1
10.6%
1-0
8.9%
1-2
8.3%
0-2
7.6%
2-1
7.2%
2-0
5.6%
Kiryat Yam SC goals ↓
Hapoel Kfar Saba goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
11%
7.6%
3.2%
1.0%
1
8.9%
14%
8.3%
3.5%
1.1%
2
5.6%
7.2%
4.6%
1.9%
0.6%
3
2.1%
2.6%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.6%
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kiryat Yam SC goals (down), columns = Hapoel Kfar Saba goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maccabi Herzliya
1.68
Ashdod
1.64
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.58
Bnei Yehuda
1.54
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.51
Kiryat Yam SC
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.38
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.34
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.34
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.32
Hapoel Afula
1.22
Kafr Qasim
1.11
Ironi Modi'in
1.08
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Kiryat Yam SC is 0.11 points better than Hapoel Kfar Saba in terms of average points per game (1.46 vs 1.35).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.81
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.78
Ashdod
1.66
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.60
Maccabi Herzliya
1.49
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.41
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.35
Kiryat Yam SC
1.30
Bnei Yehuda
1.24
Kafr Qasim
1.14
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.14
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Hapoel Afula
1.05
Ironi Modi'in
1.00
Kiryat Yam SC is 0.11 goals worse than Hapoel Kfar Saba in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 1.41).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ashdod
1.11
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.16
Kiryat Yam SC
1.16
Bnei Yehuda
1.19
Maccabi Herzliya
1.19
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.19
Ironi Modi'in
1.27
Hapoel Acre
1.30
Kafr Qasim
1.32
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.57
Hapoel Afula
1.57
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.70
Kiryat Yam SC is 0.19 goals better than Hapoel Kfar Saba in terms of goals conceded per game (1.16 vs 1.35).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kiryat Yam SC or Draw
60.8%
Avg Implied -
30%
30%
39%
covers Kiryat Yam SC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kiryat Yam SC or Hapoel Kfar Saba
69.7%
Avg Implied -
30%
30%
39%
covers Kiryat Yam SC + Hapoel Kfar Saba
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hapoel Kfar Saba
69.5%
Avg Implied -
30%
30%
39%
covers Draw + Hapoel Kfar Saba
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kiryat Yam SC over/under 0.5
Over
66.6%
Under
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kiryat Yam SC over/under 1.5
Over
30.0%
Under
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kiryat Yam SC over/under 2.5
Over
9.9%
Under
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kiryat Yam SC over/under 3.5
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Saba over/under 0.5
Over
72.1%
Under
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Saba over/under 1.5
Over
36.5%
Under
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Saba over/under 2.5
Over
13.8%
Under
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Saba over/under 3.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kiryat Yam SC, so a minus line means Kiryat Yam SC give that many goals of a start and Hapoel Kfar Saba receive them. At -1, Kiryat Yam SC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kiryat Yam SC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kiryat Yam SC)
Kiryat Yam SC -2
3.8%
Draw -2
8.7%
Hapoel Kfar Saba +2
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kiryat Yam SC)
Kiryat Yam SC -1
12.5%
Draw -1
17.9%
Hapoel Kfar Saba +1
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kiryat Yam SC)
Kiryat Yam SC +1
60.8%
Draw +1
21.1%
Hapoel Kfar Saba -1
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kiryat Yam SC)
Kiryat Yam SC +2
81.9%
Draw +2
11.8%
Hapoel Kfar Saba -2
6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kiryat Yam SC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.70
0.08
0.77
0.71
0.65
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.43
0.70
0.08
0.77
0.71
0.65
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Kfar Saba) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Kfar Saba
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.71
0.79
0.69
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.70
0.53
0.71
0.79
0.69
0.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Kiryat Yam SC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kiryat Yam SC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kiryat Yam SC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kiryat Yam SC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Saba over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Saba over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Saba over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kiryat Yam SC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.63
1.00
0.54
0.76
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.87
0.63
1.00
0.54
0.76
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Kfar Saba) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Kfar Saba
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.90
0.71
1.00
0.75
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.73
0.90
0.71
1.00
0.75
0.81
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Kiryat Yam SC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kiryat Yam SC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kiryat Yam SC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kiryat Yam SC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Saba over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Saba over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Kfar Saba over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (23)
€4m
BY (26)
€3m
MBR (18)
€3m
HRL (19)
€3m
KYS (24)
€3m
MH (22)
€2m
HR (18)
€2m
HA (23)
€2m
KQ (26)
€2m
HKS (22)
€2m
HKS (14)
€2m
IM (21)
€1m
MKJ (18)
€1m
HA (11)
€1m
Kiryat Yam SC and Hapoel Kfar Saba have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MBR (8)
€2m
HRL (8)
€1m
KYS (10)
€1m
ASH (8)
€1m
BY (9)
€1m
MH (8)
€1m
HKS (7)
€1m
HR (6)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
MKJ (11)
€0m
IM (7)
€0m
KQ (9)
€0m
HKS (4)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
Kiryat Yam SC's attack is €1m more valuable than Hapoel Kfar Saba's (€1m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BY (5)
€1m
ASH (6)
€1m
KQ (8)
€1m
MH (4)
€0m
HRL (5)
€0m
HKS (7)
€0m
HR (4)
€0m
KYS (6)
€0m
IM (6)
€0m
MBR (2)
€0m
HA (4)
€0m
MKJ (3)
€0m
HKS (2)
€0m
HA (0)
€0m
Kiryat Yam SC and Hapoel Kfar Saba have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (9)
€1m
BY (12)
€1m
MBR (8)
€1m
HR (8)
€1m
HKS (11)
€1m
HRL (6)
€1m
HA (10)
€1m
MH (10)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
KQ (9)
€1m
KYS (8)
€1m
HKS (5)
€0m
MKJ (4)
€0m
IM (8)
€0m
Kiryat Yam SC and Hapoel Kfar Saba have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Israel: Liga Leumit 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Liga Leumit stats & trends →