PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Knockbreda vs Ballinamallard United Result & Analysis

Date: 04/11/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 1-2
Knockbreda
Knockbreda
Vs
25%
24%
50%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Knockbreda win✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United win✓ Hit
50.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

KnockbredaKnockbreda

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L23L13L02L05L24L12L15L13L13LA·NEW26/08H·ARD02/09A·DUN09/09H·POR16/09A·DER23/09H·BAL30/09A·H&W07/10H·BAN15/10H·DUN21/10A·POR28/10
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
3.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.172.771.272.401.073.13
vs Stronger (14)1.142.361.252.381.002.33
vs Similar (11)1.273.001.002.201.503.67
vs Weaker (5)1.003.402.003.000.333.67
Clean sheet %7% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L12L03L01L02L31W11D00D10W30WA·DUN26/08A·BAL02/09H·BAN09/09H·INS16/09A·POR23/09A·NEW30/09H·ARD07/10A·ANN13/10H·BAL21/10A·BAN28/10
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.401.561.251.431.57
vs Stronger (28)1.541.391.601.271.461.54
vs Similar (2)1.001.501.001.001.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Knockbreda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.0%
Under 1.5
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.2%
Under 2.5
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.9%
Under 3.5
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.1%
No
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
1-2 ✓
9.6%
0-2
7.3%
0-1
6.7%
2-1
6.6%
2-2
6.2%
1-3
6.1%
0-0
5.0%
Knockbreda goals ↓
Ballinamallard United goals →
01234
05.0%6.7%7.3%4.6%2.2%
14.3%11%9.6%6.1%2.9%
23.5%6.6%6.2%4.0%1.9%
31.5%2.9%2.7%1.7%0.8%
40.5%0.9%0.9%0.6%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Knockbreda goals (down), columns = Ballinamallard United goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Portadown
1.87
Institute
1.82
Annagh United
1.79
Bangor
1.79
Dundela
1.76
Ballyclare Comrades
1.61
H&W Welders
1.47
Newington Youth
1.37
Ballinamallard United
1.34
Armagh City
1.00
Ards
0.97
Dergview
0.72
Knockbreda
0.47
Knockbreda is 0.87 points worse than Ballinamallard United in terms of average points per game (0.47 vs 1.34).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Bangor
2.03
Dundela
1.95
Portadown
1.95
Ballyclare Comrades
1.92
H&W Welders
1.84
Newington Youth
1.71
Annagh United
1.61
Ards
1.58
Institute
1.58
Ballinamallard United
1.34
Dergview
1.07
Armagh City
1.00
Knockbreda
0.89
Knockbreda is 0.45 goals worse than Ballinamallard United in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 1.34).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Armagh City
1.00
Institute
1.13
Bangor
1.16
Annagh United
1.32
Ballinamallard United
1.34
Portadown
1.39
Dundela
1.58
Ballyclare Comrades
1.58
H&W Welders
1.66
Newington Youth
1.79
Ards
1.82
Dergview
2.02
Knockbreda
2.63
Knockbreda is 1.29 goals worse than Ballinamallard United in terms of goals conceded per game (2.63 vs 1.34).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KnockbredaKnockbreda

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D02L10W01L02L02L10W03L01L12LA·NEW26/08H·ARD02/09A·DUN09/09H·POR16/09A·DER23/09H·BAL30/09A·H&W07/10H·BAN15/10H·DUN21/10A·POR28/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.070.291.290.500.88
vs Stronger (15)0.470.670.431.290.500.12
vs Similar (10)0.401.600.201.200.602.00
vs Weaker (5)0.201.200.001.500.331.00
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L01L01L00D00D20W00D00D00D20WA·DUN26/08A·BAL02/09H·BAN09/09H·INS16/09A·POR23/09A·NEW30/09H·ARD07/10A·ANN13/10H·BAL21/10A·BAN28/10
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.500.440.560.710.43
vs Stronger (28)0.570.540.470.600.690.46
vs Similar (2)0.500.000.000.001.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Knockbreda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Knockbreda over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Knockbreda over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Knockbreda over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KnockbredaKnockbreda

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L21W03L01L03L22D02L12L12L01LA·NEW26/08H·ARD02/09A·DUN09/09H·POR16/09A·DER23/09H·BAL30/09A·H&W07/10H·BAN15/10H·DUN21/10A·POR28/10
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.571.071.070.382.00
vs Stronger (15)0.731.401.001.000.501.75
vs Similar (10)0.601.500.801.000.402.00
vs Weaker (5)0.802.202.001.500.002.67
Clean sheet %17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballinamallard United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D02L01L02L11D11D00D10W10WA·DUN26/08A·BAL02/09H·BAN09/09H·INS16/09A·POR23/09A·NEW30/09H·ARD07/10A·ANN13/10H·BAL21/10A·BAN28/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.901.120.690.711.14
vs Stronger (28)0.960.861.130.670.771.08
vs Similar (2)0.501.501.001.000.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Knockbreda) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Knockbreda over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Knockbreda over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Knockbreda over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballinamallard United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAN (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
POR (6)
€1m
BAN (4)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAN (5)
€1m
POR (3)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAN (11)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
1
KNO wins
0
Draws
4
BU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Knockbreda vs Ballinamallard United · H/A from KNO
DateH/AGameScore
19/08/23ABallinamallard United Vs KNO3-0
15/04/23ABallinamallard United Vs KNO4-1
01/04/23HKNO Vs Ballinamallard United3-2
26/11/22ABallinamallard United Vs KNO2-1
01/10/22HKNO Vs Ballinamallard United1-2

KnockbredaKnockbreda

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/10/23APortadown Vs KNO3-1
21/10/23HKNO Vs Dundela1-3
15/10/23HKNO Vs Bangor1-5
07/10/23AH&W Welders Vs KNO2-1
30/09/23HKNO Vs Ballyclare Comrades2-4
23/09/23ADergview Vs KNO5-0
16/09/23HKNO Vs Portadown0-2
09/09/23ADundela Vs KNO3-1
02/09/23HKNO Vs Ards2-3
26/08/23ANewington Youth Vs KNO2-0

Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/10/23ABangor Vs BU0-3
21/10/23HBU Vs Ballyclare Comrades1-0
13/10/23AAnnagh United Vs BU0-0
07/10/23HBU Vs Ards1-1
30/09/23ANewington Youth Vs BU1-3
23/09/23APortadown Vs BU2-0
16/09/23HBU Vs Institute0-1
09/09/23HBU Vs Bangor0-3
02/09/23ABallyclare Comrades Vs BU2-1
26/08/23ADundela Vs BU2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Knockbreda
Knockbreda
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 0 Wins / 0 Draws / 10 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.74
HomeLLLLL0.76
AwayLLLLL0.72
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%16%20%
AVG goals3.563.203.92
Over 1.5 %86%76%96%
Over 2.5 %68%60%76%
Over 3.5 %48%44%52%
Scored1.161.121.20
Conceded2.402.082.72
BTTS68%64%72%
Clean Sheet12%16%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDWW1.36
HomeWLLDW1.60
AwayLLWDW1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%44%32%
AVG goals2.922.803.04
Over 1.5 %84%80%88%
Over 2.5 %58%56%60%
Over 3.5 %30%28%32%
Scored1.381.521.24
Conceded1.541.281.80
BTTS58%60%56%
Clean Sheet20%20%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1PortadownPortadown3871
58%
1.9
7453+21
3.3
87%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.91.4
-
2InstituteInstitute3869
53%
1.8
6043+17
2.7
71%
50%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.1
-
3BangorBangor3868
53%
1.8
7744+33
3.2
87%
76%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0112.01.2
-
4Annagh UnitedAnnagh United3868
53%
1.8
6150+11
2.9
74%
55%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.3
-
5DundelaDundela3867
55%
1.8
7460+14
3.5
82%
71%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.6
-
6Ballyclare ComradesBallyclare Comrades3861
47%
1.6
7360+13
3.5
89%
76%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.6
-
7H&W WeldersH&W Welders3856
45%
1.5
7063+7
3.5
89%
76%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
8Newington YouthNewington Youth3852
42%
1.4
6568-3
3.5
97%
76%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.8
-
9Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United3851
39%
1.3
5151+0
2.7
71%
58%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
10ArdsArds3837
24%
1.0
6069-9
3.4
84%
68%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
11DergviewDergview4029
15%
0.7
4381-38
3.1
85%
57%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.0
-
12KnockbredaKnockbreda3818
13%
0.5
34100-66
3.5
95%
68%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.6
-
13Armagh CityArmagh City22
0%
1.0
22+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

← all matches