PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Kocaelispor vs Fatih Karagümrük Result & Analysis

Date: 09/05/2026
Time: 17:00
Final 0-1
Kocaelispor
Kocaelispor
Vs
50%
32%
18%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Fatih Karagümrük
Fatih Karagümrük
Turkey: Süper Lig
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Kocaelispor a 50% win probability against Fatih Karagümrük in the Turkey: Süper Lig on 2026-05-09, with 32% for the draw and 18% for Fatih Karagümrük. The model estimates around 1.9 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-0 the most likely scoreline (17.3%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (87%), Over 21.5 fouls (87%), Over 3.5 cards (73%).

Results analysis

Kocaelispor finished 0-1 against Fatih Karagümrük (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 50% home win, 32% draw and 18% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (87%), Over 21.5 fouls (87%). Missed: Over 3.5 cards (73%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kocaelispor win✗ Miss
50.1%
Avg Implied 48.0% · @ 1.90
Edge
+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.9%
Avg Implied 27.4% · @ 3.33
Edge
+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fatih Karagümrük win✓ Hit
18.0%
Avg Implied 24.5% · @ 3.72
Edge
-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KocaelisporKocaelispor

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L01L10W12L05L00D11D11D01L11DA·RIZ20/02H·BEŞ28/02A·EYÜ09/03H·KON14/03A·ALA18/03H·BAŞ06/04A·GAL12/04H·GÖZ18/04A·GEN26/04A·KAS03/05
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.131.000.730.731.53
vs Stronger (9)0.561.440.401.000.752.00
vs Similar (15)0.931.071.140.710.751.38
vs Weaker (6)1.170.831.670.330.671.33
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Fatih Karagümrük) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Fatih KaragümrükFatih Karagümrük

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D13L11D20W01L21W03L12L00D10WH·SAM22/02A·TRA27/02A·GAZ08/03H·FEN13/03A·KAY19/03H·RIZ05/04A·KON12/04H·EYÜ18/04A·BEŞ27/04H·GEN03/05
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.601.071.330.801.87
vs Stronger (13)1.001.851.001.861.001.83
vs Similar (17)0.881.411.120.880.671.89
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Kocaelispor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%16%026%128%217%38%43%51%6+
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
58.6%
Under 1.5
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
30.4%
@ 1.98-16.5%
Under 2.5
69.6%
@ 1.75+16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
13.0%
Under 3.5
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
35.9%
No
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
17.3%
0-0
15.8%
1-1
13.4%
2-0
11.7%
0-1 ✓
8.3%
2-1
7.7%
3-0
5.0%
1-2
4.0%
Kocaelispor goals ↓
Fatih Karagümrük goals →
01234
016%8.3%3.1%0.7%0.1%
117%13%4.0%0.9%0.1%
212%7.7%2.5%0.6%0.1%
35.0%3.3%1.1%0.2%0.0%
41.6%1.0%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kocaelispor goals (down), columns = Fatih Karagümrük goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Galatasaray
2.26
Fenerbahçe
2.18
Trabzonspor
2.03
Beşiktaş
1.76
Başakşehir
1.68
Göztepe
1.62
Samsunspor
1.50
Rizespor
1.21
Konyaspor
1.18
Kocaelispor
1.09
Alanyaspor
1.09
Gaziantep FK
1.09
Kasımpaşa
1.03
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.00
Eyüpspor
0.97
Antalyaspor
0.94
Kayserispor
0.88
Fatih Karagümrük
0.88
Kocaelispor is 0.21 points better than Fatih Karagümrük in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 0.88).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Galatasaray
2.26
Fenerbahçe
2.26
Trabzonspor
1.79
Beşiktaş
1.74
Başakşehir
1.71
Rizespor
1.35
Samsunspor
1.35
Konyaspor
1.26
Gaziantep FK
1.26
Göztepe
1.24
Alanyaspor
1.21
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.06
Eyüpspor
0.97
Antalyaspor
0.97
Kasımpaşa
0.97
Fatih Karagümrük
0.91
Kayserispor
0.79
Kocaelispor
0.76
Kocaelispor is 0.15 goals worse than Fatih Karagümrük in terms of goals scored per game (0.76 vs 0.91).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Galatasaray
0.88
Göztepe
0.94
Başakşehir
1.03
Fenerbahçe
1.09
Kocaelispor
1.12
Trabzonspor
1.15
Beşiktaş
1.18
Alanyaspor
1.21
Samsunspor
1.32
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.38
Eyüpspor
1.41
Kasımpaşa
1.44
Konyaspor
1.47
Rizespor
1.53
Fatih Karagümrük
1.59
Antalyaspor
1.62
Gaziantep FK
1.71
Kayserispor
1.82
Kocaelispor is 0.47 goals better than Fatih Karagümrük in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.59).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Galatasaray
62%
Fenerbahçe
59%
Beşiktaş
56%
Trabzonspor
55%
Başakşehir
54%
Samsunspor
54%
Konyaspor
52%
Rizespor
50%
Gaziantep FK
50%
Kocaelispor
50%
Alanyaspor
48%
Eyüpspor
48%
Kayserispor
47%
Fatih Karagümrük
45%
Antalyaspor
45%
Kasımpaşa
44%
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
43%
Göztepe
38%
Kocaelispor is 4.6 percentage points better than Fatih Karagümrük in terms of average possession (50% vs 45%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

KocaelisporKocaelispor

For 3.9 · Against 3.8 · Total 7.7

🚩 Corners

1505621914183387331462113959615658A·KASA·GENH·GÖZA·GALH·BAŞA·ALAH·KONA·EYÜH·BEŞA·RIZ
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.9

🟨 Cards

130111671133224123112131135634A·KASA·GENH·GÖZA·GALH·BAŞA·ALAH·KONA·EYÜH·BEŞA·RIZ
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.3 · Against 13.1 · Total 28.4

⚠️ Fouls

3401714121411231315107141421421131513191431263428172825342833A·KASA·GENH·GÖZA·GALH·BAŞA·ALAH·KONA·EYÜH·BEŞA·RIZ
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Fatih KaragümrükFatih Karagümrük

For 3.7 · Against 5.1 · Total 8.8

🚩 Corners

1801625654331321412645517711734161896H·GENA·BEŞH·EYÜA·KONH·RIZA·KAYH·FENA·GAZA·TRAH·SAM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.3

🟨 Cards

5022324111212131311114542334422H·GENA·BEŞH·EYÜA·KONH·RIZA·KAYH·FENA·GAZA·TRAH·SAM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 13.5 · Total 26.5

⚠️ Fouls

3601391512141281615218211671514128141522272624362923292029H·GENA·BEŞH·EYÜA·KONH·RIZA·KAYH·FENA·GAZA·TRAH·SAM
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

KocaelisporKocaelispor

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.07.88.34.64.64.526.725.428.0
vs Stronger (10)7.98.07.83.13.03.227.025.628.4
vs Similar (23)7.68.07.25.05.44.826.825.028.2
vs Weaker (17)8.87.510.64.84.74.926.425.727.3
% over line32%28%36%62%60%64%86%80%92%
% under line68%72%64%38%40%36%14%20%8%
This opponent (Fatih Karagümrük) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Fatih KaragümrükFatih Karagümrük

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)8.98.69.14.65.04.228.930.627.2
vs Stronger (14)9.79.69.93.73.44.026.126.026.1
vs Similar (30)8.78.68.95.15.64.430.733.028.1
vs Weaker (6)7.76.08.54.35.04.026.027.025.5
% over line40%40%40%76%84%68%92%96%88%
% under line60%60%60%24%16%32%8%4%12%
This opponent (Kocaelispor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Fenerbahçe
10.8
Kayserispor
10.1
Beşiktaş
10.0
Samsunspor
10.0
Gaziantep FK
9.7
Konyaspor
9.7
Başakşehir
9.7
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
9.6
Rizespor
9.4
Trabzonspor
9.3
Kasımpaşa
9.3
Antalyaspor
9.2
Eyüpspor
9.2
Göztepe
9.1
Galatasaray
8.9
Fatih Karagümrük
8.9
Alanyaspor
8.3
Kocaelispor
8.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Gaziantep FK
6.0
Fenerbahçe
5.9
Konyaspor
5.4
Alanyaspor
5.4
Beşiktaş
5.3
Göztepe
5.0
Antalyaspor
5.0
Kasımpaşa
5.0
Başakşehir
4.9
Eyüpspor
4.9
Rizespor
4.8
Kocaelispor
4.8
Kayserispor
4.7
Samsunspor
4.7
Trabzonspor
4.6
Fatih Karagümrük
4.6
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
4.5
Galatasaray
4.5

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Gaziantep FK
28.9
Fatih Karagümrük
28.9
Kasımpaşa
27.6
Alanyaspor
27.0
Antalyaspor
27.0
Rizespor
27.0
Başakşehir
26.7
Göztepe
26.7
Kocaelispor
26.7
Eyüpspor
26.0
Trabzonspor
25.7
Fenerbahçe
25.7
Kayserispor
25.3
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
25.3
Beşiktaş
25.3
Samsunspor
25.2
Konyaspor
25.2
Galatasaray
23.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
39.1%
Under 9.5
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
72.9%
Under 3.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
87.0%
Under 21.5
13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.587.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls87.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards72.9%-------✗ Miss

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (23)
€260m
TRA (29)
€116m
GÖZ (28)
€80m
BAŞ (30)
€75m
SAM (26)
€56m
RIZ (45)
€49m
ALA (31)
€42m
KON (32)
€37m
EYÜ (35)
€36m
GF (30)
€30m
KAY (34)
€27m
ANT (29)
€22m
FK (32)
€21m
KOC (24)
€21m
Kocaelispor and Fatih Karagümrük have a similar squad value (both €21m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (9)
€151m
TRA (11)
€48m
GÖZ (12)
€42m
BAŞ (10)
€36m
SAM (9)
€30m
RIZ (17)
€18m
ALA (12)
€15m
GF (12)
€15m
KON (10)
€15m
KAY (13)
€12m
FK (13)
€11m
EYÜ (14)
€10m
ANT (11)
€9m
KOC (10)
€7m
Kocaelispor's attack is €4m less valuable than Fatih Karagümrük's (€7m vs €11m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (4)
€43m
GÖZ (5)
€24m
TRA (8)
€23m
ALA (9)
€15m
BAŞ (6)
€13m
RIZ (9)
€10m
KON (8)
€8m
KOC (6)
€8m
SAM (5)
€8m
EYÜ (8)
€7m
GF (5)
€6m
KAY (7)
€5m
ANT (5)
€5m
FK (6)
€4m
Kocaelispor's midfield is €4m more valuable than Fatih Karagümrük's (€8m vs €4m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (10)
€66m
TRA (10)
€45m
BAŞ (14)
€26m
RIZ (19)
€21m
SAM (12)
€19m
EYÜ (13)
€18m
GÖZ (11)
€15m
KON (14)
€14m
ALA (10)
€11m
KAY (14)
€9m
GF (13)
€9m
ANT (13)
€8m
FK (13)
€6m
KOC (8)
€6m
Kocaelispor and Fatih Karagümrük have a similar defence value (both €6m).

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Kocaelispor vs Fatih Karagümrük · H/A from KOC
DateH/AGameScore
14/12/25AFatih Karagümrük Vs KOC1-1
16/03/25AFatih Karagümrük Vs KOC1-1
02/11/24HKOC Vs Fatih Karagümrük2-1

KocaelisporKocaelispor

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/05/26AKasımpaşa Vs KOC1-1
26/04/26AGençlerbirliği S.K. Vs KOC1-0
18/04/26HKOC Vs Göztepe1-1
12/04/26AGalatasaray Vs KOC1-1
06/04/26HKOC Vs Başakşehir0-0
18/03/26AAlanyaspor Vs KOC5-0
14/03/26HKOC Vs Konyaspor1-2
09/03/26AEyüpspor Vs KOC0-1
28/02/26HKOC Vs Beşiktaş0-1
20/02/26ARizespor Vs KOC2-0

Fatih KaragümrükFatih Karagümrük

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/05/26HFK Vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.1-0
27/04/26ABeşiktaş Vs FK0-0
18/04/26HFK Vs Eyüpspor1-2
12/04/26AKonyaspor Vs FK3-0
05/04/26HFK Vs Rizespor2-1
19/03/26AKayserispor Vs FK1-0
13/03/26HFK Vs Fenerbahçe2-0
08/03/26AGaziantep FK Vs FK1-1
27/02/26ATrabzonspor Vs FK3-1
22/02/26HFK Vs Samsunspor0-0

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Kocaelispor
Kocaelispor
Turkey: Süper Lig
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDLD1.36
HomeWLLDD1.72
AwayWLDLD1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%48%20%
AVG goals2.422.442.40
Over 1.5 %70%68%72%
Over 2.5 %36%36%36%
Over 3.5 %24%16%32%
Scored1.261.600.92
Conceded1.160.841.48
BTTS50%48%52%
Clean Sheet30%40%20%
Corners8.047.808.28
Cards4.755.044.48
Fatih Karagümrük
Fatih Karagümrük
Turkey: Süper Lig
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDW1.10
HomeDWWLW1.44
AwayLDLLD0.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%40%20%
AVG goals2.402.202.60
Over 1.5 %74%68%80%
Over 2.5 %44%32%56%
Over 3.5 %18%16%20%
Scored1.001.080.92
Conceded1.401.121.68
BTTS48%44%52%
Clean Sheet24%36%12%
Corners8.868.649.08
Cards4.604.964.24

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1GalatasarayGalatasaray3477
71%
2.3
7730+47
3.1
85%
68%
41%
8.9
44%
4.6
56%
23.7
71%
260
15143662.30.9
62%
2FenerbahçeFenerbahçe3474
62%
2.2
7737+40
3.4
88%
65%
53%
11.1
62%
6.2
82%
26.4
79%
0
0002.31.1
59%
3TrabzonsporTrabzonspor3469
59%
2.0
6139+22
2.9
79%
56%
26%
9.8
47%
4.4
53%
26.1
76%
116
4823451.81.1
55%
4BeşiktaşBeşiktaş3460
50%
1.8
5940+19
2.9
82%
59%
35%
10.1
50%
5.4
76%
25.6
79%
0
0001.71.2
56%
5BaşakşehirBaşakşehir3457
47%
1.7
5835+23
2.7
82%
62%
24%
10.0
50%
4.8
73%
26.5
88%
75
3613261.71.0
54%
6GöztepeGöztepe3455
41%
1.6
4232+10
2.2
71%
41%
18%
9.4
47%
5.4
68%
27.6
94%
80
4224151.20.9
38%
7SamsunsporSamsunspor3451
38%
1.5
4645+1
2.7
76%
56%
32%
10.0
50%
4.5
61%
27.1
91%
56
308191.41.3
54%
8RizesporRizespor3441
29%
1.2
4652-6
2.9
76%
59%
35%
8.8
47%
4.5
61%
26.9
85%
49
1810211.41.5
50%
9KonyasporKonyaspor3440
29%
1.2
4350-7
2.7
91%
56%
24%
9.6
50%
4.9
68%
25.1
79%
37
158141.31.5
52%
10AlanyasporAlanyaspor3437
21%
1.1
4141+0
2.4
74%
47%
29%
8.4
35%
4.8
64%
27.2
82%
42
1515111.21.2
48%
11KocaelisporKocaelispor3437
26%
1.1
2638-12
1.9
56%
26%
12%
8.1
29%
4.9
62%
28.7
94%
21
7860.81.1
50%
12Gaziantep FKGaziantep FK3437
26%
1.1
4358-15
3.0
91%
68%
26%
10.2
50%
5.9
85%
29.7
94%
30
15691.31.7
50%
13KasımpaşaKasımpaşa3435
24%
1.0
3349-16
2.4
71%
44%
21%
8.7
32%
5.3
71%
28.8
94%
0
0001.01.4
44%
14Gençlerbirliği S.K.Gençlerbirliği S.K.3434
26%
1.0
3647-11
2.4
65%
53%
21%
9.3
50%
4.7
58%
26.9
82%
0
0001.11.4
43%
15EyüpsporEyüpspor3433
24%
1.0
3348-15
2.4
68%
47%
18%
9.3
38%
4.8
69%
27.1
79%
36
107181.01.4
48%
16AntalyasporAntalyaspor3432
24%
0.9
3355-22
2.6
65%
50%
29%
9.8
59%
5.6
70%
27.3
88%
22
9581.01.6
45%
17Fatih KaragümrükFatih Karagümrük3430
24%
0.9
3154-23
2.5
76%
47%
18%
8.9
41%
4.0
62%
28.1
94%
21
11460.91.6
45%
18KayserisporKayserispor3430
18%
0.9
2762-35
2.6
79%
50%
32%
9.7
59%
4.4
70%
26.0
82%
27
12590.81.8
47%
Turkey: Süper Lig 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: Süper Lig stats & trends →

← all matches