The contest between Kocaelispor and Samsunspor feels razor-thin, with the model favouring a home win but the odds for a draw and away victory hovering close behind. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly scored game, and the most probable final score is 1-1, a 14.2% chance. Kocaelispor, playing at home against a team of similar strength, averages 1.44 goals scored and 0.67 conceded, while Samsunspor, on the road, averages 1.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded. The model’s picks highlight a very low-scoring affair: Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.2%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.6% with a 6% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.5% with a 6% edge), Under 5.5 (97.4% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.3% with a 6% edge), and Away under 3.5 goals (97.3% with a 6% edge). Home win probability sits at 37%, draw at 30%, and away win at 33%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kocaelispor win
38.1%
Avg Implied 36.9% · @ 2.53
Edge
+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.68
Pinnacle
2.64
Marathonbet
2.58
10Bet
2.56
Betfair
2.55
Draw
30.0%
Avg Implied 30.4% · @ 3.07
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.25
Betfair
3.20
10Bet
3.15
Dafabet
3.15
BetVictor
3.10
Samsunspor win
31.9%
Avg Implied 32.7% · @ 2.85
Edge
-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.04
Pinnacle
3.00
Betano
2.92
Marathonbet
2.92
William Hil
2.90
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kocaelispor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.03
1.07
0.86
0.62
1.19
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.29
0.40
1.20
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.96
0.96
1.44
0.67
0.64
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Samsunspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Samsunspor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.27
1.67
1.13
1.53
1.40
vs Stronger (4)
2.00
1.75
2.00
1.33
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (16)
1.38
1.50
1.44
1.33
1.29
1.71
vs Weaker (10)
1.80
0.70
2.00
0.33
1.71
0.86
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Kocaelispor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
71.2%
@ 1.36+2.6%
Under 1.5
28.8%
@ 2.96-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.12
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Unibet
3.00
Betano
3.00
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
43.9%
@ 2.16+0.1%
Under 2.5
56.1%
@ 1.68-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.24
Betano
2.22
Pinnacle
2.22
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
Under
Betfair
1.73
1xBet
1.71
Betano
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.67
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
22.8%
@ 3.88-1.2%
Under 3.5
77.2%
@ 1.23+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.93
Betano
3.90
10Bet
3.80
Under
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Both teams to score
Yes
50.7%
@ 1.82+0.1%
No
49.3%
@ 1.87-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.85
William Hil
1.85
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
Bet365
1.83
No
10Bet
1.93
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.87
Unibet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%@ 5.72+6.5%
0-0
10.1%@ 7.91+4.4%
1-0
10.0%@ 7.13+3.7%
0-1
8.8%@ 7.60+2.9%
2-1
8.3%@ 9.21+3.4%
1-2
7.5%@ 9.84+2.9%
2-0
7.2%@ 11.28+3.2%
0-2
5.8%@ 12.77+2.3%
Kocaelispor goals ↓
Samsunspor goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
8.8%
5.8%
2.2%
0.6%
1
10.0%
14%
7.5%
2.9%
0.8%
2
7.2%
8.3%
4.8%
1.8%
0.5%
3
3.1%
3.5%
2.0%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.0%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kocaelispor goals (down), columns = Samsunspor goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Galatasaray
2.26
Fenerbahçe
2.18
Trabzonspor
2.03
Beşiktaş
1.76
Başakşehir
1.68
Göztepe
1.62
Samsunspor
1.50
Rizespor
1.21
Konyaspor
1.18
Gaziantep FK
1.09
Kocaelispor
1.09
Alanyaspor
1.09
Amed
1.05
Kasımpaşa
1.03
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.00
Eyüpspor
0.97
Erzurumspor FK
0.96
Çorum FK
0.95
Kocaelispor is 0.41 points worse than Samsunspor in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Fenerbahçe
2.26
Galatasaray
2.26
Trabzonspor
1.79
Beşiktaş
1.74
Başakşehir
1.71
Samsunspor
1.35
Rizespor
1.35
Gaziantep FK
1.26
Konyaspor
1.26
Göztepe
1.24
Alanyaspor
1.21
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.06
Amed
1.03
Eyüpspor
0.97
Kasımpaşa
0.97
Erzurumspor FK
0.94
Çorum FK
0.93
Kocaelispor
0.76
Kocaelispor is 0.59 goals worse than Samsunspor in terms of goals scored per game (0.76 vs 1.35).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Galatasaray
0.88
Göztepe
0.94
Başakşehir
1.03
Fenerbahçe
1.09
Kocaelispor
1.12
Trabzonspor
1.15
Beşiktaş
1.18
Alanyaspor
1.21
Samsunspor
1.32
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.38
Eyüpspor
1.41
Kasımpaşa
1.44
Konyaspor
1.47
Rizespor
1.53
Gaziantep FK
1.71
Amed
1.71
Erzurumspor FK
1.88
Çorum FK
1.89
Kocaelispor is 0.21 goals better than Samsunspor in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Galatasaray
62%
Fenerbahçe
59%
Beşiktaş
56%
Trabzonspor
55%
Başakşehir
54%
Samsunspor
54%
Konyaspor
52%
Rizespor
50%
Gaziantep FK
50%
Kocaelispor
50%
Alanyaspor
48%
Eyüpspor
48%
Kasımpaşa
44%
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
43%
Göztepe
38%
Kocaelispor is 4.6 percentage points worse than Samsunspor in terms of average possession (50% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kocaelispor
For 3.4 · Against 4.0 · Total 7.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 15.3 · Total 28.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Samsunspor
For 3.2 · Against 6.2 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 13.2 · Total 27.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kocaelispor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.1
8.4
7.9
4.0
3.9
4.0
27.6
26.0
29.1
vs Stronger (12)
8.1
8.0
8.2
2.9
2.5
3.3
27.1
25.6
28.3
vs Similar (34)
7.8
8.2
7.4
4.4
4.6
4.3
28.6
27.3
29.8
vs Weaker (4)
10.8
10.0
13.0
3.2
3.0
4.0
21.5
20.7
24.0
% over line
33%
36%
30%
54%
46%
62%
89%
82%
96%
% under line
67%
64%
70%
46%
54%
38%
11%
18%
4%
This opponent (Samsunspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Samsunspor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.0
10.5
4.0
3.8
4.2
26.4
27.2
25.5
vs Stronger (7)
8.4
8.8
8.0
4.4
3.8
5.3
27.0
27.2
26.7
vs Similar (27)
9.9
8.7
11.4
4.2
3.8
4.7
25.6
26.9
24.0
vs Weaker (16)
9.9
9.7
10.1
3.6
4.0
3.3
27.4
27.8
27.1
% over line
52%
46%
59%
50%
54%
46%
80%
83%
77%
% under line
48%
54%
41%
50%
46%
54%
20%
17%
23%
This opponent (Kocaelispor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Fenerbahçe
11.1
Beşiktaş
10.3
Başakşehir
9.7
Samsunspor
9.7
Trabzonspor
9.6
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
9.6
Konyaspor
9.6
Gaziantep FK
9.5
Göztepe
9.4
Çorum FK
9.4
Rizespor
9.3
Amed
9.0
Galatasaray
8.9
Kasımpaşa
8.9
Eyüpspor
8.9
Erzurumspor FK
8.5
Kocaelispor
8.3
Alanyaspor
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Gaziantep FK
5.8
Fenerbahçe
5.6
Beşiktaş
5.1
Kasımpaşa
5.0
Konyaspor
5.0
Başakşehir
5.0
Göztepe
5.0
Çorum FK
5.0
Eyüpspor
4.9
Amed
4.9
Alanyaspor
4.9
Kocaelispor
4.8
Trabzonspor
4.7
Erzurumspor FK
4.7
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
4.5
Galatasaray
4.5
Samsunspor
4.4
Rizespor
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Gaziantep FK
28.9
Kasımpaşa
27.7
Kocaelispor
27.4
Alanyaspor
27.1
Başakşehir
26.9
Göztepe
26.6
Eyüpspor
26.6
Trabzonspor
26.5
Samsunspor
26.2
Rizespor
26.1
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
25.5
Fenerbahçe
25.3
Beşiktaş
25.2
Konyaspor
24.8
Galatasaray
23.5
Erzurumspor FK
23.5
Çorum FK
22.9
Amed
22.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
43.6%
@ 2.10-0.6%
Under 9.5
56.4%
@ 1.66+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.20
Betano
2.10
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.00
Under
10Bet
1.73
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Unibet
1.57
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
68.0%
Under 3.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
83.3%
Under 21.5
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kocaelispor or Draw
68.2%
Avg Implied 67.2% · @ 1.39
Edge
+1.0%
38%
30%
32%
covers Kocaelispor + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Kocaelispor or Samsunspor
68.3%
Avg Implied 69.7% · @ 1.34
Edge
-1.4%
38%
30%
32%
covers Kocaelispor + Samsunspor
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.41
William Hil
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.34
Draw or Samsunspor
63.5%
Avg Implied 63.1% · @ 1.48
Edge
+0.4%
38%
30%
32%
covers Draw + Samsunspor
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Betfair
1.50
10Bet
1.48
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kocaelispor over/under 0.5
Over
68.5%
@ 1.31-2.2%
Under
31.5%
@ 3.16+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
Under
Pinnacle
3.31
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
10Bet
3.20
BetVictor
3.13
Kocaelispor over/under 1.5
Over
32.1%
@ 2.57-4.1%
Under
67.9%
@ 1.46+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.71
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.61
10Bet
2.55
Under
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Kocaelispor over/under 2.5
Over
11.1%
@ 6.10-4.2%
Under
88.9%
@ 1.10+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.40
Marathonbet
6.40
10Bet
6.00
BetVictor
6.00
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
10Bet
1.09
BetVictor
1.09
Kocaelispor over/under 3.5
Over
3.0%
@ 14.62-3.6%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.02+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Samsunspor over/under 0.5
Over
65.3%
@ 1.36-2.9%
Under
34.7%
@ 2.92+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Pinnacle
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
10Bet
2.95
BetVictor
2.88
Samsunspor over/under 1.5
Over
28.6%
@ 2.77-5.0%
Under
71.4%
@ 1.40+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.96
BetVictor
2.88
Marathonbet
2.88
Betano
2.82
Betfair
2.75
Under
1xBet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.40
Samsunspor over/under 2.5
Over
9.2%
@ 7.01-4.1%
Under
90.8%
@ 1.07+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.40
1xBet
7.10
BetVictor
7.00
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
Betfair
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
Samsunspor over/under 3.5
Over
2.3%
@ 16.25-3.6%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kocaelispor, so a minus line means Kocaelispor give that many goals of a start and Samsunspor receive them. At -1, Kocaelispor must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kocaelispor win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kocaelispor)
Kocaelispor -2
5.1%
@ 12.04-2.3%
Draw -2
10.7%
@ 6.74-2.4%
Samsunspor +2
84.2%
@ 1.12+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Unibet
11.00
Marathonbet
7.20
Draw
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
6.75
10Bet
6.50
Marathonbet
4.95
Away
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Handicap -1 (Kocaelispor)
Kocaelispor -1
15.8%
@ 5.29-1.1%
Draw -1
20.7%
@ 4.01-1.6%
Samsunspor +1
63.5%
@ 1.47+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
4.90
Draw
Marathonbet
4.30
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Unibet
3.80
Away
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
Betfair
1.44
Handicap +1 (Kocaelispor)
Kocaelispor +1
68.2%
@ 1.40+3.8%
Draw +1
18.9%
@ 4.34-1.9%
Samsunspor -1
12.9%
@ 6.10-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
Draw
Marathonbet
4.65
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.00
Away
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.25
10Bet
5.75
Unibet
5.50
Handicap +2 (Kocaelispor)
Kocaelispor +2
87.1%
@ 1.10+4.1%
Draw +2
9.1%
@ 8.17-2.1%
Samsunspor -2
3.8%
@ 15.67-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.08
Draw
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
8.50
10Bet
7.00
Away
Betfair
17.00
Bet365
17.00
10Bet
13.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kocaelispor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.40
0.64
0.29
0.25
0.50
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.57
0.40
0.40
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.35
0.78
0.22
0.29
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Samsunspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Samsunspor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.60
0.47
0.67
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.75
0.33
0.67
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.75
0.78
0.56
0.43
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
0.60
0.30
0.33
0.00
0.71
0.43
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kocaelispor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.6%
@ 1.45+2.5%
Under 0.5
33.4%
@ 2.59-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
BetVictor
1.47
Bet365
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.75
William Hil
2.75
Pinnacle
2.73
10Bet
2.65
Unibet
2.65
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
29.1%
@ 3.10-0.9%
Under 1.5
70.9%
@ 1.33+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.21
Betfair
3.20
Marathonbet
3.15
Under
William Hil
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.34
BetVictor
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.6%
@ 8.35-1.5%
Under 2.5
90.4%
@ 1.05+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
BetVictor
9.00
Marathonbet
8.60
1xBet
8.60
Betfair
8.00
Under
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kocaelispor over/under 0.5 HT
Over
39.5%
@ 2.15-3.7%
Under
60.5%
@ 1.64+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.22
Betano
2.20
Pinnacle
2.20
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Under
10Bet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.65
Unibet
1.64
Betano
1.62
Kocaelispor over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.9%
@ 7.10-4.1%
Under
91.1%
@ 1.07+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.00
1xBet
7.50
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
Kocaelispor over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.5%
@ 12.50-6.0%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Samsunspor over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.7%
@ 2.27+5.9%
Under
53.3%
@ 1.57-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.37
Marathonbet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.34
1xBet
2.25
Unibet
2.18
Under
10Bet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.58
Unibet
1.58
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.55
Samsunspor over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.2%
@ 7.83-0.7%
Under
88.8%
@ 1.05+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.90
1xBet
8.00
Betano
7.40
10Bet
7.00
Under
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.02
Samsunspor over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kocaelispor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.63
0.43
0.57
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.71
0.00
0.80
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.61
0.67
0.44
0.36
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Samsunspor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Samsunspor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.67
1.07
0.67
0.87
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.00
1.67
0.67
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.75
0.67
0.78
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (10)
1.20
0.40
1.67
0.33
1.00
0.43
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kocaelispor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.7%
@ 1.27+2.8%
Under 0.5
24.3%
@ 3.42-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Betano
3.45
1xBet
3.42
Marathonbet
3.42
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.3%
@ 2.28-1.6%
Under 1.5
60.7%
@ 1.57+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.30
Betano
2.30
1xBet
2.29
Marathonbet
2.29
Bet365
2.25
Under
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.58
1xBet
1.58
10Bet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.0%
@ 5.10-4.2%
Under 2.5
86.0%
@ 1.14+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.20
1xBet
5.20
William Hil
5.00
Betano
4.90
Under
Betano
1.17
William Hil
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.11
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kocaelispor over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.2%
@ 1.81-1.8%
Under
50.8%
@ 1.89+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.81
Marathonbet
1.81
Under
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
Kocaelispor over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.3%
@ 5.10-4.8%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.13+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.35
Marathonbet
5.35
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.70
Under
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Kocaelispor over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.7%
@ 10.25-6.5%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.03+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Samsunspor over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.1%
@ 1.89-0.8%
Under
51.9%
@ 1.81+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
1xBet
1.89
Under
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Samsunspor over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.9%
@ 5.67-2.4%
Under
86.1%
@ 1.11+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.95
1xBet
5.95
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
Samsunspor over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.7%
@ 11.25-5.6%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.02+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.0%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+3.6%
Under 5.5
97.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+3.8%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.5%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.6%
Home under 3.5 goals
97.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+3.6%
Under 4.5
92.6%
1.05
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Unibet
1.05
BetVictor
1.04
+4.2%
Over 19.5 fouls
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.1%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
-
+4.1%
Away under 2.5 goals
90.8%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Betfair
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
+4.1%
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.4%
1.05
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+1.5%
Home under 2.5 goals
88.9%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
10Bet
1.09
BetVictor
1.09
+4.2%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.8%
1.05
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.02
-
+0.7%
Home +2 handicap
87.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.08
-
-
+4.1%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.7%
1.13
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-
+4.8%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.1%
1.11
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
-
+2.4%
Under 2.5 2H goals
86.0%
1.14
Betano
1.17
William Hil
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.11
+4.2%
Away +2 handicap
84.2%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
+4.7%
Over 2.5 cards
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
78.6%
1.22
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.21
-
-
-
+2.6%
Under 3.5
77.2%
1.23
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.22
+1.2%
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.7%
1.27
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
+2.8%
Away under 1.5 goals
71.4%
1.40
1xBet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.40
+5.0%
Over 1.5
71.2%
1.36
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Bet365
1.36
+2.6%
Over 23.5 fouls
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.9%
1.33
William Hil
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.34
BetVictor
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
+0.9%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Kocaelispor
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Massadio Haïdara33%
Metehan Altunbaş33%
Berkan Kutlu33%
Show0%
Anfernee Jamal Dijksteel0%
Makana Baku0%
Dan Agyei0%
Uğur Kaan Yıldız0%
Tanguy Zoukrou0%
Serhat Öztaşdelen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dan Agyei33%
Tanguy Zoukrou33%
Show0%
Massadio Haïdara0%
Anfernee Jamal Dijksteel0%
Makana Baku0%
Metehan Altunbaş0%
Uğur Kaan Yıldız0%
Berkan Kutlu0%
Serhat Öztaşdelen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Show33%
Anfernee Jamal Dijksteel33%
Uğur Kaan Yıldız33%
Massadio Haïdara0%
Makana Baku0%
Metehan Altunbaş0%
Dan Agyei0%
Berkan Kutlu0%
Tanguy Zoukrou0%
Serhat Öztaşdelen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Show0%
Massadio Haïdara0%
Anfernee Jamal Dijksteel0%
Makana Baku0%
Metehan Altunbaş0%
Dan Agyei0%
Uğur Kaan Yıldız0%
Berkan Kutlu0%
Tanguy Zoukrou0%
Serhat Öztaşdelen0%
Samsunspor
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Celil Yüksel33%
Fatih Kaya33%
Emre Kılınç33%
Josafat Mendes33%
Logi Tomasson0%
Toni Borevković0%
Yalçın Kayan0%
Okan Kocuk0%
Samed Onur0%
Antoine Sekongo0%
Saikuba Jarju0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Logi Tomasson33%
Toni Borevković33%
Celil Yüksel0%
Fatih Kaya0%
Emre Kılınç0%
Yalçın Kayan0%
Okan Kocuk0%
Samed Onur0%
Josafat Mendes0%
Antoine Sekongo0%
Saikuba Jarju0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Fatih Kaya33%
Josafat Mendes33%
Saikuba Jarju33%
Celil Yüksel0%
Logi Tomasson0%
Toni Borevković0%
Emre Kılınç0%
Yalçın Kayan0%
Okan Kocuk0%
Samed Onur0%
Antoine Sekongo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fatih Kaya33%
Emre Kılınç33%
Celil Yüksel0%
Logi Tomasson0%
Toni Borevković0%
Yalçın Kayan0%
Okan Kocuk0%
Samed Onur0%
Josafat Mendes0%
Antoine Sekongo0%
Saikuba Jarju0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (29)
€345m
FEN (39)
€332m
BEŞ (34)
€202m
TRA (31)
€168m
BAŞ (32)
€77m
GÖZ (26)
€61m
SAM (30)
€50m
ÇF (28)
€47m
RIZ (24)
€44m
ALA (29)
€38m
KON (26)
€33m
KAS (31)
€31m
GF (28)
€28m
AME (22)
€27m
EF (26)
€26m
KOC (26)
€24m
GS (19)
€15m
EYÜ (24)
€14m
Kocaelispor's squad is €26m less valuable than Samsunspor's (€24m vs €50m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (9)
€173m
FEN (14)
€162m
BEŞ (11)
€70m
TRA (11)
€67m
BAŞ (13)
€40m
GÖZ (10)
€30m
SAM (12)
€20m
AME (7)
€15m
KAS (13)
€14m
GF (14)
€14m
KON (10)
€13m
RIZ (8)
€12m
ÇF (9)
€12m
EF (9)
€10m
ALA (11)
€9m
KOC (8)
€9m
EYÜ (10)
€5m
GS (4)
€4m
Kocaelispor's attack is €11m less valuable than Samsunspor's (€9m vs €20m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (7)
€72m
FEN (7)
€62m
BEŞ (9)
€50m
TRA (9)
€38m
GÖZ (7)
€19m
ALA (9)
€18m
ÇF (7)
€14m
SAM (6)
€12m
BAŞ (6)
€10m
KOC (8)
€9m
GF (5)
€8m
EF (4)
€7m
RIZ (4)
€7m
GS (6)
€5m
KAS (7)
€4m
KON (4)
€4m
AME (4)
€3m
EYÜ (4)
€2m
Kocaelispor's midfield is €4m less valuable than Samsunspor's (€9m vs €12m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FEN (18)
€108m
GAL (13)
€100m
BEŞ (14)
€82m
TRA (11)
€63m
BAŞ (13)
€28m
RIZ (12)
€25m
ÇF (12)
€21m
SAM (12)
€18m
KON (12)
€16m
KAS (11)
€12m
GÖZ (9)
€12m
ALA (9)
€11m
AME (11)
€9m
EF (13)
€8m
KOC (10)
€7m
EYÜ (10)
€7m
GF (9)
€6m
GS (9)
€5m
Kocaelispor's defence is €12m less valuable than Samsunspor's (€7m vs €18m).
Turkey: Süper Lig 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: Süper Lig stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Galatasaray
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Beşiktaş
Fenerbahçe
Amed
Rizespor
Kasımpaşa
Başakşehir
Trabzonspor
Alanyaspor
Gaziantep FK
Eyüpspor
Göztepe
Çorum FK
Erzurumspor FK
Konyaspor