Kolding IF’s recent two-game winning streak has them looking sharp at home, while Aalborg’s last draw suggests they are still finding rhythm away. The model sees a razor-thin edge for a Kolding win, giving a 39% chance of victory, 28% for a draw and 33% for an Aalborg win. The favourite outcome is a home win, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1 with a 13.3% probability. On average, the match should see 2.7 goals, with the most common total being 2 goals at a 25% share.
Kolding’s home form shows 1.42 goals scored and 1.33 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Aalborg’s away numbers are 1.15 scored and 1.46 conceded. The model’s selections include a 99.3% chance of Under 7.5, 97.8%Under 6.5, 95.5%Away under 3.5 goals, 94.3%Home under 3.5 goals, 94.0%Under 5.5, 85.6%Under 4.5, 85.3%Away under 2.5 goals and 84.6%Home +2 handicap. Each pick is presented with its exact probability, and no other outcome receives a win percentage.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kolding IF win
38.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aalborg win
33.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kolding IF
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.33
1.43
1.21
1.56
1.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.26
1.44
1.42
1.33
1.13
1.53
vs Weaker (3)
3.67
0.33
1.50
0.50
8.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aalborg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.47
1.33
1.47
1.47
1.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.26
1.41
1.36
1.36
1.15
1.46
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
2.00
1.00
3.00
3.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolding IF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.1%
Under 1.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.7%
Under 2.5
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.6%
Under 3.5
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.9%
No
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
2-1
8.6%
1-0
8.0%
1-2
8.0%
0-0
7.6%
0-1
7.3%
2-0
6.6%
2-2
5.7%
Kolding IF goals ↓
Aalborg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
7.3%
5.6%
2.4%
0.8%
1
8.0%
13%
8.0%
3.5%
1.1%
2
6.6%
8.6%
5.7%
2.5%
0.8%
3
3.1%
4.1%
2.7%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.1%
1.5%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kolding IF goals (down), columns = Aalborg goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hvidovre
2.33
Vejle
2.33
Hobro
2.00
Aarhus Fremad
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Aalborg
1.33
Kolding IF
1.00
AB Copenhagen
1.00
Hillerød
0.67
Esbjerg
0.67
HB Koge
0.33
Kolding IF is 0.33 points worse than Aalborg in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vejle
2.67
Hillerød
1.67
Hvidovre
1.67
Hobro
1.50
FC Fredericia
1.50
Kolding IF
1.33
AB Copenhagen
1.33
Esbjerg
1.33
Aarhus Fremad
1.17
Vendsyssel FF
1.17
Aalborg
0.83
HB Koge
0.50
Kolding IF is 0.50 goals better than Aalborg in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 0.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Fredericia
0.67
Aarhus Fremad
0.83
Hvidovre
0.83
Aalborg
1.17
AB Copenhagen
1.17
Hobro
1.33
Vendsyssel FF
1.33
Kolding IF
1.50
Vejle
1.67
HB Koge
2.00
Hillerød
2.00
Esbjerg
2.17
Kolding IF is 0.33 goals worse than Aalborg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kolding IF or Draw
66.5%
Avg Implied -
39%
28%
33%
covers Kolding IF + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kolding IF or Aalborg
72.1%
Avg Implied -
39%
28%
33%
covers Kolding IF + Aalborg
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Aalborg
61.4%
Avg Implied -
39%
28%
33%
covers Draw + Aalborg
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kolding IF over/under 0.5
Over
76.0%
Under
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolding IF over/under 1.5
Over
41.8%
Under
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolding IF over/under 2.5
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolding IF over/under 3.5
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 0.5
Over
73.2%
Under
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 1.5
Over
37.9%
Under
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 2.5
Over
14.7%
Under
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 3.5
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kolding IF, so a minus line means Kolding IF give that many goals of a start and Aalborg receive them. At -1, Kolding IF must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kolding IF win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kolding IF)
Kolding IF -2
7.1%
Draw -2
11.8%
Aalborg +2
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kolding IF)
Kolding IF -1
18.8%
Draw -1
19.8%
Aalborg +1
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kolding IF)
Kolding IF +1
66.5%
Draw +1
18.1%
Aalborg -1
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kolding IF)
Kolding IF +2
84.6%
Draw +2
10.0%
Aalborg -2
5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kolding IF
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.79
0.50
0.44
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.56
0.74
0.75
0.58
0.40
0.87
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aalborg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.60
0.40
0.40
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.52
0.52
0.64
0.36
0.38
0.69
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolding IF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kolding IF over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolding IF over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolding IF over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kolding IF
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.67
0.64
0.71
1.12
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.70
0.70
0.67
0.75
0.73
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
0.33
0.50
0.50
7.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Aalborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aalborg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.90
0.73
1.07
1.07
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.74
0.89
0.71
1.00
0.77
0.77
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolding IF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kolding IF over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolding IF over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolding IF over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aalborg over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Aalborg · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Malthe Højholt33%
Mathias Jørgensen25%
John Iredale21%
Nicklas Helenius19%
Aaron Seydel17%
Kasper Jørgensen13%
Melker Widell11%
Mads Bomholt10%
Oliver Ross7%
Bjarne Pudel5%
Andres Jasson3%
Jubril Adedeji0%
Andreas Bruus0%
Lars Kramer0%
Oumar Diakhité0%
Diego Caballo0%
Vincent Müller0%
Kelvin John0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Marc Nielsen0%
Mylian Jimenez0%
Elison Makolli0%
Travis Hernes0%
Sebastian Otoa0%
Nóel Atli Arnórsson0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Valdemar Møller Damgaard0%
Amar Diagne0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Oumar Diakhité31%
Bjarne Pudel29%
Mylian Jimenez26%
Kasper Davidsen22%
Melker Widell19%
Lars Kramer17%
Marc Nielsen17%
Andres Jasson16%
Kasper Jørgensen13%
Jubril Adedeji12%
Andreas Bruus10%
Oliver Ross10%
Travis Hernes8%
Isak Hansen Aarøen7%
Mads Bomholt7%
Nóel Atli Arnórsson6%
Kelvin John4%
Vincent Müller3%
Malthe Højholt0%
Nicklas Helenius0%
Aaron Seydel0%
Diego Caballo0%
Mathias Jørgensen0%
John Iredale0%
Elison Makolli0%
Sebastian Otoa0%
Valdemar Møller Damgaard0%
Amar Diagne0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nicklas Helenius19%
Mathias Jørgensen16%
Nóel Atli Arnórsson12%
Melker Widell11%
Sebastian Otoa10%
Andres Jasson10%
Kasper Jørgensen7%
Bjarne Pudel5%
Kelvin John4%
Mylian Jimenez4%
Kasper Davidsen4%
Lars Kramer3%
Oliver Ross3%
Malthe Højholt0%
Jubril Adedeji0%
Andreas Bruus0%
Aaron Seydel0%
Oumar Diakhité0%
Diego Caballo0%
Vincent Müller0%
John Iredale0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Marc Nielsen0%
Elison Makolli0%
Travis Hernes0%
Mads Bomholt0%
Valdemar Møller Damgaard0%
Amar Diagne0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathias Jørgensen31%
Kasper Jørgensen17%
Melker Widell15%
Jubril Adedeji12%
John Iredale7%
Oliver Ross7%
Mylian Jimenez4%
Andres Jasson3%
Malthe Højholt0%
Nicklas Helenius0%
Andreas Bruus0%
Aaron Seydel0%
Lars Kramer0%
Oumar Diakhité0%
Diego Caballo0%
Vincent Müller0%
Kelvin John0%
Bjarne Pudel0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Marc Nielsen0%
Elison Makolli0%
Travis Hernes0%
Sebastian Otoa0%
Nóel Atli Arnórsson0%
Mads Bomholt0%
Kasper Davidsen0%
Valdemar Møller Damgaard0%
Amar Diagne0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (24)
€10m
VEJ (22)
€9m
FF (17)
€8m
ESB (23)
€7m
HOB (23)
€7m
KI (21)
€6m
HVI (21)
€5m
HK (19)
€5m
HIL (18)
€4m
AF (21)
€3m
VF (3)
€1m
AC (3)
€1m
Kolding IF's squad is €5m less valuable than Aalborg's (€6m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEJ (7)
€3m
AAL (7)
€2m
ESB (8)
€2m
FF (5)
€2m
HVI (6)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HOB (9)
€2m
HIL (5)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
AF (6)
€1m
VF (1)
€0m
AC (1)
€0m
Kolding IF and Aalborg have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FF (5)
€3m
VEJ (6)
€2m
HOB (5)
€2m
AAL (5)
€2m
KI (5)
€2m
ESB (6)
€2m
HK (6)
€2m
HVI (6)
€1m
AF (8)
€1m
HIL (5)
€1m
VF (2)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
Kolding IF and Aalborg have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (12)
€6m
VEJ (9)
€4m
FF (7)
€3m
HOB (9)
€3m
ESB (9)
€3m
HK (8)
€2m
HVI (9)
€2m
KI (8)
€2m
HIL (8)
€2m
AF (7)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
VF (0)
€0m
Kolding IF's defence is €4m less valuable than Aalborg's (€2m vs €6m).
Denmark: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →