Kolding IF and Hvidovre are set to face off in the Denmark: 1. Division. The recent-form note suggests that Hvidovre is on a 2-game winning run, having beaten Esbjerg 2-1 in their last outing. Conversely, Kolding IF is coming off a draw against Aalborg. The model's pick is a home win, but it's worth noting that the model disagrees with the market, as the home side's win probability is only 38%. The most likely match result is a home win, with a 38% probability, followed by a draw at 30%, and an away win at 32%.
In terms of expected goals, the average number is 2.4. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.4% probability. Kolding IF has scored an average of 1.27 goals at home, while conceding 0.91. Hvidovre has scored 1.29 goals away from home, while conceding 1.0. The model suggests an Under 3.5 goals selection, which has an 78.6% probability and a 9% edge. The home win percentage is 38%, the draw percentage is 30%, and the away win percentage is 32%. The model's selections include an Under 3.5 goals pick at 78.6%, and a home win pick at 38%.
Results analysis
The upset of the day came as Hvidovre secured a 0-1 away win over Kolding IF, extending their 2-game winning run. This result was a surprise, given that the pre-match favourite, Kolding IF, had a 38% chance of winning. Unfortunately for the model, its pick of a home win was incorrect. On the other hand, the model's selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 78.6%. Another model pick, Under 3.5, also hit, further validating the model's call.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kolding IF win✗ Miss
37.9%
Avg Implied 37.9% · @ 2.43
Edge
+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.53
Bet365
2.50
Unibet
2.50
Betano
2.47
Marathonbet
2.47
Draw✗ Miss
30.5%
Avg Implied 28.2% · @ 3.27
Edge
+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.45
Dafabet
3.35
10Bet
3.35
BetVictor
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Hvidovre win✓ Hit
31.6%
Avg Implied 33.9% · @ 2.72
Edge
-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.83
Superbet
2.80
Betano
2.80
Dafabet
2.80
Pinnacle
2.76
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kolding IF
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.27
1.29
1.14
0.94
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.08
1.40
1.17
1.33
1.00
1.46
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.60
2.00
0.00
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Hvidovre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hvidovre
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.27
1.53
1.53
1.33
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.37
1.22
1.46
1.46
1.29
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.67
2.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolding IF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
69.7%
@ 1.25-4.3%
Under 1.5
30.3%
@ 3.56+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Pinnacle
1.27
Unibet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.74
10Bet
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.1%
@ 1.86-8.3%
Under 2.5
57.9%
@ 1.89+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.93
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.88
Marathonbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Under
Bet365
1.95
10Bet
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.4%
@ 3.08-8.6%
Under 3.5
78.6%
@ 1.32+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.20
Unibet
3.05
1xBet
3.05
Under
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.34
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.3%
@ 1.66-6.4%
No
50.7%
@ 2.08+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.67
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
BetVictor
1.67
Superbet
1.66
No
Bet365
2.10
Superbet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.09
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%@ 5.84+6.9%
0-0
10.7%@ 9.67+6.2%
1-0
10.4%@ 7.94+4.9%
0-1 ✓
9.2%@ 8.49+4.0%
2-1
8.2%@ 8.45+3.0%
1-2
7.3%@ 9.06+2.5%
2-0
7.3%@ 11.26+3.4%
0-2
5.9%@ 12.99+2.5%
Kolding IF goals ↓
Hvidovre goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.2%
5.9%
2.2%
0.6%
1
10%
14%
7.3%
2.7%
0.8%
2
7.3%
8.2%
4.6%
1.7%
0.5%
3
3.0%
3.4%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kolding IF goals (down), columns = Hvidovre goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vejle
1.63
Esbjerg
1.62
Hillerød
1.56
FC Fredericia
1.50
Hvidovre
1.44
Aalborg
1.44
Aarhus Fremad
1.38
Hobro
1.31
HB Koge
1.25
Kolding IF
1.19
Vendsyssel FF
0.78
AB Copenhagen
0.60
Kolding IF is 0.25 points worse than Hvidovre in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.44).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vejle
1.68
Aarhus Fremad
1.62
Aalborg
1.56
FC Fredericia
1.54
Esbjerg
1.41
Hvidovre
1.34
HB Koge
1.31
Hillerød
1.31
Hobro
1.25
Kolding IF
1.16
Vendsyssel FF
0.80
AB Copenhagen
0.61
Kolding IF is 0.19 goals worse than Hvidovre in terms of goals scored per game (1.16 vs 1.34).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Aarhus Fremad
1.16
Vejle
1.17
Hvidovre
1.22
Kolding IF
1.25
FC Fredericia
1.28
Esbjerg
1.34
Hobro
1.34
Hillerød
1.34
Aalborg
1.47
HB Koge
1.50
Vendsyssel FF
2.46
AB Copenhagen
3.21
Kolding IF is 0.03 goals worse than Hvidovre in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.22).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kolding IF
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.64
0.43
0.44
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.56
0.58
0.50
0.46
0.62
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.20
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Hvidovre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hvidovre
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
1.00
0.53
0.53
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.74
0.41
0.92
0.46
0.57
0.36
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolding IF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kolding IF over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolding IF over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolding IF over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kolding IF
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.77
0.64
0.71
0.50
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.84
0.58
0.83
0.54
0.85
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.40
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Hvidovre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hvidovre
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
0.53
1.00
0.80
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.81
0.54
1.00
0.71
0.64
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
0.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolding IF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kolding IF over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolding IF over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolding IF over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hvidovre over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
78.6%
1.32
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.34
+8.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Denmark: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Denmark: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vejle
Hobro
FC Fredericia
Aarhus Fremad
Aalborg
AB Copenhagen
Vendsyssel FF
Esbjerg
Hillerød
HB Koge