Defensive solidity is the headline of this low-scoring encounter, with the home side averaging just 0.67 goals per game and conceding one against stronger opposition. The model favours an away win, assigning a 49% chance to UCSA, 30% for a draw and 21% for Kolos Kovalivka II to lift the trophy. The expected total of 2.2 goals points to a tight match, and the single most likely scoreline is 0-1 for the visitors, with a 13.9% probability. Kolos, after a win over Lokomotiv Kyiv, has been struggling, while UCSA, coming off a defeat to Inhulets, has struggled to score, managing one goal in their last outing and conceding two. The model’s selections echo the defensive narrative: Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (99.0%), Under 5.5 (97.4%), Home under 2.5 goals (94.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.8%), Away +2 handicap (92.9%) and Under 4.5 (92.6%). All probabilities are expressed as percentages, with no other outcomes or edge percentages mentioned.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kolos Kovalivka II win
21.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
UCSA win
48.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kolos Kovalivka II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.29
0.75
0.75
0.33
2.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.50
0.67
1.00
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
29% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (UCSA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
UCSA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.47
1.27
1.47
1.00
1.47
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
3.40
1.33
3.33
1.00
3.50
vs Similar (25)
1.12
1.08
1.25
1.00
1.00
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolos Kovalivka II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
66.2%
Under 1.5
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
38.1%
Under 2.5
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
18.4%
Under 3.5
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
43.5%
No
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
13.9%
1-1
13.8%
0-0
12.2%
0-2
10.5%
1-2
8.7%
1-0
7.8%
2-1
5.2%
0-3
4.9%
Kolos Kovalivka II goals ↓
UCSA goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
14%
11%
4.9%
1.7%
1
7.8%
14%
8.7%
4.0%
1.4%
2
3.7%
5.2%
3.6%
1.7%
0.6%
3
1.0%
1.4%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kolos Kovalivka II goals (down), columns = UCSA goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
3.00
Oleksandria
2.20
Kulykiv
2.00
SK Poltava
2.00
Prykarpattia
1.40
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.40
Metal Kharkiv
1.40
Inhulets
1.33
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Nyva Ternopil
1.20
UCSA
1.20
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.00
Chernihiv
0.80
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.50
Polissya II
0.40
Probiy Horodenka
0.40
Kolos Kovalivka II is 0.20 points worse than UCSA in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kulykiv
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.80
Prykarpattia
1.60
UCSA
1.60
SK Poltava
1.33
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Polissya II
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Inhulets
1.17
Chernihiv
1.00
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Probiy Horodenka
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.67
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.67
Kolos Kovalivka II is 0.93 goals worse than UCSA in terms of goals scored per game (0.67 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SK Poltava
0.17
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.20
Oleksandria
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Chernihiv
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.20
Kulykiv
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.33
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.33
Inhulets
1.50
Yarud Mariupol'
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Polissya II
1.80
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.80
Probiy Horodenka
2.40
Kolos Kovalivka II is 0.27 goals better than UCSA in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kolos Kovalivka II or Draw
51.2%
Avg Implied -
21%
30%
49%
covers Kolos Kovalivka II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kolos Kovalivka II or UCSA
70.0%
Avg Implied -
21%
30%
49%
covers Kolos Kovalivka II + UCSA
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or UCSA
78.9%
Avg Implied -
21%
30%
49%
covers Draw + UCSA
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kolos Kovalivka II over/under 0.5
Over
56.3%
Under
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolos Kovalivka II over/under 1.5
Over
20.1%
Under
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolos Kovalivka II over/under 2.5
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolos Kovalivka II over/under 3.5
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 0.5
Over
75.0%
Under
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 1.5
Over
40.4%
Under
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 2.5
Over
16.3%
Under
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 3.5
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kolos Kovalivka II, so a minus line means Kolos Kovalivka II give that many goals of a start and UCSA receive them. At -1, Kolos Kovalivka II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kolos Kovalivka II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kolos Kovalivka II)
Kolos Kovalivka II -2
1.7%
Draw -2
5.4%
UCSA +2
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kolos Kovalivka II)
Kolos Kovalivka II -1
7.1%
Draw -1
14.1%
UCSA +1
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kolos Kovalivka II)
Kolos Kovalivka II +1
51.2%
Draw +1
24.4%
UCSA -1
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kolos Kovalivka II)
Kolos Kovalivka II +2
75.6%
Draw +2
15.2%
UCSA -2
9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kolos Kovalivka II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.00
0.29
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.33
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
71% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (UCSA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
UCSA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.60
0.47
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.33
1.33
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.44
0.67
0.25
0.54
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolos Kovalivka II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kolos Kovalivka II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolos Kovalivka II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolos Kovalivka II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kolos Kovalivka II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.33
1.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.17
0.67
0.67
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
29% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (UCSA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
UCSA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.90
0.67
1.00
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
2.20
1.00
2.00
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.64
0.58
0.75
0.46
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Kolos Kovalivka II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kolos Kovalivka II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolos Kovalivka II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kolos Kovalivka II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UCSA over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (25)
€8m
SP (22)
€4m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
PH (20)
€1m
INH (15)
€1m
PI (5)
€1m
KKI (3)
€0m
LK (7)
€0m
Kolos Kovalivka II's squad is €2m less valuable than UCSA's (€0m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (10)
€3m
YM (6)
€1m
SP (5)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
PH (11)
€1m
PI (2)
€0m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
INH (6)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (3)
€0m
Kolos Kovalivka II and UCSA have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
YM (7)
€1m
OLE (4)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SP (7)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
PI (1)
€0m
PH (3)
€0m
INH (5)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (0)
€0m
Kolos Kovalivka II and UCSA have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (11)
€3m
SP (10)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
INH (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
PH (6)
€0m
PI (2)
€0m
LK (4)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
Kolos Kovalivka II and UCSA have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
SK Poltava
Oleksandria
Kulykiv
Inhulets
Prykarpattia
Metal Kharkiv
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
Nyva Ternopil
Yarud Mariupol'
Chernihiv
Lokomotiv Kyiv
Polissya II
Probiy Horodenka