The model favours an away win, with the odds showing a 42 % chance for Grbalj, 30 % for Kom and 28 % for a draw. Expecting 2.7 goals overall, the most likely total is two, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.4 % probability. Kom, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded, while Grbalj on the road against a weaker side averages 1.67 scored and only 0.67 conceded. Kom’s recent form is a five-match losing streak, last losing 1-2 to Mladost Lješkopolje, whereas Grbalj has just won 2-1 over Mogren, their last five results being WDLDW. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3 %), Under 6.5 (98.0 %), Home under 3.5 goals (96.4 %), Under 5.5 (94.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (93.8 %), Home under 2.5 goals (87.4 %), Away +2 handicap (86.8 %) and Under 4.5 (86.3 %). These picks reflect the expected low-scoring nature of the encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kom win
33.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grbalj win
38.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kom
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.23
1.31
0.94
1.79
1.57
vs Stronger (21)
1.38
1.24
1.23
1.08
1.62
1.50
vs Similar (9)
1.89
1.22
1.67
0.33
2.00
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Grbalj) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grbalj
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.20
1.73
0.93
1.47
1.47
vs Stronger (20)
1.45
1.40
1.64
0.82
1.22
2.11
vs Similar (5)
1.80
0.40
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.33
vs Weaker (5)
2.00
1.20
2.50
2.00
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Kom) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.8%
Under 1.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.9%
Under 2.5
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.9%
Under 3.5
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.4%
No
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-2
8.6%
0-1
8.4%
0-0
8.2%
2-1
7.9%
1-0
7.6%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
5.6%
Kom goals ↓
Grbalj goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
8.4%
6.7%
3.1%
1.1%
1
7.6%
14%
8.6%
4.0%
1.4%
2
5.6%
7.9%
5.5%
2.5%
0.9%
3
2.4%
3.3%
2.3%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.8%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kom goals (down), columns = Grbalj goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Jedinstvo
2.36
Grbalj
1.86
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.78
Kom
1.39
Berane
1.39
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.34
Lovćen
1.33
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.31
Mogren
1.25
Zeta
1.00
Kom is 0.47 points worse than Grbalj in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Jedinstvo
2.18
Grbalj
1.75
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.42
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.42
Kom
1.31
Berane
1.25
Mogren
1.16
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.08
Lovćen
0.94
Zeta
0.50
Kom is 0.44 goals worse than Grbalj in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Zeta
0.50
Jedinstvo
0.73
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.94
Berane
1.00
Grbalj
1.17
Kom
1.19
Lovćen
1.25
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.28
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.29
Mogren
1.39
Kom is 0.03 goals worse than Grbalj in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kom or Draw
61.4%
Avg Implied -
33%
28%
39%
covers Kom + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kom or Grbalj
71.6%
Avg Implied -
33%
28%
39%
covers Kom + Grbalj
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Grbalj
66.9%
Avg Implied -
33%
28%
39%
covers Draw + Grbalj
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kom over/under 0.5
Over
72.1%
Under
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kom over/under 1.5
Over
36.5%
Under
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kom over/under 2.5
Over
13.7%
Under
86.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kom over/under 3.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 0.5
Over
75.2%
Under
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 1.5
Over
40.6%
Under
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 2.5
Over
16.5%
Under
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 3.5
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kom, so a minus line means Kom give that many goals of a start and Grbalj receive them. At -1, Kom must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kom win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kom)
Kom -2
5.1%
Draw -2
9.8%
Grbalj +2
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kom)
Kom -1
14.9%
Draw -1
18.2%
Grbalj +1
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kom)
Kom +1
61.4%
Draw +1
20.0%
Grbalj -1
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kom)
Kom +2
81.4%
Draw +2
11.7%
Grbalj -2
6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kom
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.50
0.56
0.71
0.71
vs Stronger (21)
0.57
0.71
0.54
0.69
0.62
0.75
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.44
0.33
0.00
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Grbalj) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grbalj
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.57
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (20)
0.60
0.65
0.55
0.36
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.20
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.60
1.50
0.50
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Kom) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kom over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kom over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kom over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kom
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.60
0.81
0.38
1.07
0.86
vs Stronger (21)
0.81
0.52
0.69
0.38
1.00
0.75
vs Similar (9)
1.22
0.78
1.33
0.33
1.17
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Grbalj) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grbalj
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.63
1.07
0.60
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (20)
0.85
0.75
1.09
0.45
0.56
1.11
vs Similar (5)
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.60
1.00
1.50
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kom) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kom over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kom over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kom over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grbalj over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JED (17)
€1m
GRB (2)
€0m
R( (3)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
BER (1)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
Kom and Grbalj have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JED (5)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Kom and Grbalj have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
GRB (0)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JED (10)
€1m
R( (2)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
BER (1)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
Kom and Grbalj have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Montenegro: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: Second League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Mladost Lješkopolje
Zeta
Mogren
Lovćen
Iskra (Montenegro)
Jedinstvo
Rudar (Montenegro)
Berane