Kom vs Jedinstvo Result & Analysis

The model favours an away win, with a 59% chance for Jedinstvo, 23% for a draw and 18% for Kom. The expected total goals sit at 3.0, yet the most likely total is 2, with a 23% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, at 10.9%. Kom, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.17 goals scored and conceded. Jedinstvo, on the road, has a similar defensive record but has recently lost 2-3 to Lovćen after a defeat, while Kom has endured five straight losses, most recently 1-2 to Mladost Lješkopolje.

The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.7%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.9%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.0%), Under 6.5 (96.5%), Away +2 handicap (93.4%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (92.4%) and Home under 2.5 goals (91.5%). Each pick is presented with its exact probability.

The upset came early as Kom edged Jedinstvo 2-0, overturning the model’s pre-match favourite of an away win that had a 58% probability. The home side’s recent form, a win after four losses, proved decisive, while Jedinstvo’s three-game winning streak failed to materialise. The model’s selection of an away win was therefore wrong. All of the model’s suggested picks were settled: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.8%; Under 7.5 hit at 98.8%; Home under 3.5 goals hit at 97.9%; Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.1%; Under 6.5 hit at 96.5%; Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 92.6%; Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 92.1%; and the Away +2 handicap missed at 93.1%. The final score of 2-0 confirmed Kom’s victory, leaving the model’s predictions largely accurate except for the favourite call.