Kooteepee is the clear favourite, with a 63% chance of winning at home. The model rates them highly due to KäPa's struggles on the road, where they average just 1.38 goals scored and 2.46 conceded against stronger opponents. This weakness should play into Kooteepee's hands, who have been in good form at home, winning their last two matches. The expected total number of goals is 3.3, with a most likely total of 3 goals.
The model's selection is a home win, with a 63% chance of success. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favour of Kooteepee, with a probability of 9.8%. Kooteepee's home form is strong, averaging 2.46 goals scored and 1.38 conceded against weaker opponents. KäPa, on the other hand, struggle on the road, conceding an average of 2.46 goals against stronger opponents.
The model also selects Over 1.5 goals, with an 85.5% probability, and an edge of 2%. The other model selections are a draw, with a 21% chance, and an away win, with a 16% chance. The probabilities for these outcomes are 21% for a draw and 16% for an away win.
Results analysis
The win extends Kooteepee's 3-game winning run, as they edged out KäPa 2-1 on the road. The model correctly predicted a home win, with a 63% probability of success, and it was the favourite going into the match. The model's selection came to fruition, as the actual result was a home win. The model also suggested Kooteepee's match to go over 1.5 goals, with an 85.5% probability, and this prediction hit. Another suggested pick was not settled, while the most likely total goals was 3, with a 22% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kooteepee win✓ Hit
62.7%
Avg Implied 74.6% · @ 1.22
Edge
-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
SBO
1.24
Draw✗ Miss
21.0%
Avg Implied 15.4% · @ 5.92
Edge
+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
6.59
1xBet
6.30
Marathonbet
6.30
Dafabet
6.20
BetVictor
6.00
KäPa win✗ Miss
16.3%
Avg Implied 10.0% · @ 9.12
Edge
+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
10.30
10Bet
10.25
Marathonbet
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Pinnacle
9.54
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kooteepee
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
2.13
1.15
1.77
1.12
2.41
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
3.00
0.50
3.00
0.33
3.00
vs Similar (24)
1.21
1.92
1.27
1.55
1.15
2.23
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
3.00
-
-
3.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (KäPa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KäPa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
2.00
1.71
2.00
1.56
2.00
vs Stronger (20)
2.00
1.95
2.33
1.78
1.73
2.09
vs Similar (10)
0.90
2.10
0.60
2.40
1.20
1.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Kooteepee) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.5%
@ 1.08-0.4%
Under 1.5
14.5%
@ 6.63+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Under
Bet365
7.00
Pinnacle
6.56
1xBet
6.55
Marathonbet
6.55
Betfair
6.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.9%
@ 1.33-4.2%
Under 2.5
35.1%
@ 2.98+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Betfair
1.33
Betano
1.33
Under
BetVictor
3.10
Pinnacle
3.06
1xBet
3.05
Marathonbet
3.04
Betfair
3.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.9%
@ 1.88-6.5%
Under 3.5
57.1%
@ 1.84+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.97
SBO
1.97
10Bet
1.93
Betfair
1.90
Betano
1.87
Under
SBO
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Betfair
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
Betano
1.85
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.3%
@ 1.70+6.1%
No
39.7%
@ 2.00-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.75
William Hil
1.75
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.70
1xBet
1.68
No
BetVictor
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Unibet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.01
Bet365
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1 ✓
9.8%@ 8.06+4.4%
1-1
9.5%@ 11.04+5.6%
2-0
9.0%@ 7.07+2.9%
3-1
7.3%@ 8.71+2.4%
1-0
7.1%@ 9.30+2.4%
3-0
6.7%@ 7.79+1.2%
2-2
5.3%@ 17.53+2.9%
1-2
4.7%@ 24.25+2.9%
Kooteepee goals ↓
KäPa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
3.0%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
1
7.1%
9.5%
4.7%
1.7%
0.5%
2
9.0%
9.8%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
3
6.7%
7.3%
4.0%
1.5%
0.4%
4
3.8%
4.1%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kooteepee goals (down), columns = KäPa goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Haka
2.38
Kooteepee
2.29
PK-35
2.12
JIPPO
2.00
JäPS
1.43
EIF
1.25
Klubi-04
1.22
SJK Akatemia
0.75
MP
0.62
KäPa
0.22
Kooteepee is 2.06 points better than KäPa in terms of average points per game (2.29 vs 0.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Haka
2.50
PK-35
2.00
Klubi-04
1.67
Kooteepee
1.57
JIPPO
1.50
MP
1.25
SJK Akatemia
0.88
KäPa
0.78
EIF
0.75
JäPS
0.71
Kooteepee is 0.79 goals better than KäPa in terms of goals scored per game (1.57 vs 0.78).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
JäPS
0.86
JIPPO
0.88
EIF
0.88
PK-35
0.88
Kooteepee
1.00
Haka
1.00
Klubi-04
1.67
KäPa
2.00
SJK Akatemia
2.00
MP
2.25
Kooteepee is 1.00 goals better than KäPa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kooteepee
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.03
0.54
1.15
0.47
0.94
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.60
0.50
1.50
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.88
0.55
1.09
0.46
0.69
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (KäPa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KäPa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.80
0.64
0.64
0.62
0.94
vs Stronger (20)
0.70
0.70
0.89
0.33
0.55
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.50
1.00
0.20
1.20
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Kooteepee) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kooteepee over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kooteepee over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kooteepee over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kooteepee
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.10
0.62
0.62
0.65
1.47
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.40
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (24)
0.71
1.04
0.73
0.45
0.69
1.54
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (KäPa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
KäPa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.20
1.07
1.36
0.94
1.06
vs Stronger (20)
1.30
1.25
1.44
1.44
1.18
1.09
vs Similar (10)
0.40
1.10
0.40
1.20
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Kooteepee) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kooteepee over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kooteepee over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kooteepee over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.5%
1.08
Pinnacle
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
-0.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Kooteepee · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rangel44%
Nathaniel Tahmbi33%
Petteri Forsell20%
Luca Weckström17%
Assane Seck14%
Atomu Tanaka12%
Joni Mäkelä12%
Joni Kauko0%
Albin Linnér0%
Joona Toivio0%
Oscar Linnér0%
Felipe Aspegren0%
Aleksi Tarvonen0%
Mikko Sumusalo0%
Matias Paavola0%
Juho Lehtiranta0%
Franck Ellé0%
Joshua Akpudje0%
Aaro Toivonen0%
Mitchell Glasson0%
Thomas Lahdensuo0%
Constantine Edlund0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joni Kauko50%
Mikko Sumusalo43%
Albin Linnér40%
Rangel33%
Thomas Lahdensuo33%
Nathaniel Tahmbi33%
Atomu Tanaka25%
Oscar Linnér25%
Franck Ellé25%
Joshua Akpudje25%
Constantine Edlund25%
Mitchell Glasson22%
Joona Toivio20%
Felipe Aspegren20%
Juho Lehtiranta17%
Luca Weckström17%
Assane Seck14%
Joni Mäkelä12%
Petteri Forsell10%
Aleksi Tarvonen0%
Matias Paavola0%
Aaro Toivonen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Joni Kauko25%
Aaro Toivonen22%
Mikko Sumusalo14%
Assane Seck14%
Atomu Tanaka12%
Joni Mäkelä12%
Matias Paavola11%
Petteri Forsell10%
Albin Linnér0%
Joona Toivio0%
Oscar Linnér0%
Felipe Aspegren0%
Aleksi Tarvonen0%
Rangel0%
Juho Lehtiranta0%
Franck Ellé0%
Joshua Akpudje0%
Luca Weckström0%
Mitchell Glasson0%
Thomas Lahdensuo0%
Constantine Edlund0%
Nathaniel Tahmbi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rangel33%
Petteri Forsell30%
Nathaniel Tahmbi17%
Assane Seck14%
Joni Mäkelä12%
Joni Kauko0%
Atomu Tanaka0%
Albin Linnér0%
Joona Toivio0%
Oscar Linnér0%
Felipe Aspegren0%
Aleksi Tarvonen0%
Mikko Sumusalo0%
Matias Paavola0%
Juho Lehtiranta0%
Franck Ellé0%
Joshua Akpudje0%
Luca Weckström0%
Aaro Toivonen0%
Mitchell Glasson0%
Thomas Lahdensuo0%
Constantine Edlund0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAK (21)
€1m
KOO (19)
€1m
JIP (21)
€1m
PK- (20)
€1m
EIF (20)
€1m
JÄP (24)
€1m
KÄP (25)
€1m
MP (19)
€0m
KLU (17)
€0m
Kooteepee and KäPa have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOO (10)
€1m
JIP (7)
€0m
EIF (9)
€0m
PK- (6)
€0m
JÄP (11)
€0m
HAK (7)
€0m
MP (10)
€0m
KLU (8)
€0m
KÄP (8)
€0m
Kooteepee and KäPa have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PK- (7)
€0m
HAK (5)
€0m
KÄP (6)
€0m
JÄP (4)
€0m
EIF (4)
€0m
JIP (4)
€0m
KOO (2)
€0m
MP (2)
€0m
KLU (3)
€0m
Kooteepee and KäPa have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAK (9)
€1m
KOO (7)
€0m
JIP (10)
€0m
EIF (7)
€0m
KÄP (11)
€0m
PK- (7)
€0m
JÄP (9)
€0m
MP (7)
€0m
KLU (6)
€0m
Kooteepee and KäPa have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Finland: Ykkösliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Ykkösliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Haka
PK-35
JIPPO
Klubi-04
EIF
JäPS
SJK Akatemia
MP