The contest between Koper and Celje is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. The probabilities are 36% for a Koper victory, 26% for a draw and 39% for Celje. The expected total goals hover around 3.1, but the most likely total is two goals, a 23% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.8% probability. Koper, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages two goals scored and one conceded, while Celje, on the road, averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.83 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.5%), Under 6.5 (96.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.2%), Under 5.5 (90.4%), Over 19.5 fouls (86.9%), Over 1.5 (82.8%) and Away +2 handicap (82.4%). Koper’s recent form shows a two-game winning run, while Celje returns from a defeat. The match remains uncertain, but the model’s pick points to Celje’s slight edge.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Koper win
34.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Celje win
39.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Koper
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.07
2.07
1.07
1.69
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.74
1.16
2.00
1.00
1.50
1.30
vs Weaker (11)
2.09
0.91
2.20
1.20
2.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.27
2.13
1.20
1.87
1.33
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
0.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (15)
1.53
1.20
1.44
0.78
1.67
1.83
vs Weaker (13)
2.69
1.23
3.80
1.40
2.00
1.12
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.7%
Under 1.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.5%
Under 2.5
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.1%
Under 3.5
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.0%
No
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
8.1%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
6.4%
0-2
6.0%
0-0
5.9%
1-0
5.9%
Koper goals ↓
Celje goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
6.5%
6.0%
3.1%
1.2%
1
5.9%
12%
8.7%
4.6%
1.8%
2
5.1%
8.1%
6.4%
3.3%
1.3%
3
2.5%
3.9%
3.1%
1.6%
0.6%
4
0.9%
1.4%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Koper goals (down), columns = Celje goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maribor
2.14
Celje
1.83
Koper
1.71
Bravo
1.57
Aluminij
1.14
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.14
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.14
Nafta
1.00
Mura
1.00
Radomlje
0.83
Koper is 0.12 points worse than Celje in terms of average points per game (1.71 vs 1.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Maribor
1.86
Nafta
1.71
Celje
1.67
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.57
Radomlje
1.17
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Mura
1.14
Koper
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.43
Koper is 0.67 goals worse than Celje in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.71
Koper
0.71
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.71
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Celje
1.33
Radomlje
1.67
Nafta
1.71
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.71
Mura
2.00
Koper is 0.62 goals better than Celje in terms of goals conceded per game (0.71 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Koper
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Celje
For 4.7 · Against 7.0 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 2.1 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 13.7 · Total 28.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Koper
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (31)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (19)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Celje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.7
14.0
8.7
0.7
1.0
0.5
28.1
30.0
25.7
vs Stronger (5)
12.5
13.0
12.0
1.2
1.3
1.0
23.5
24.0
23.0
vs Similar (22)
11.4
14.3
7.0
1.4
1.8
0.9
30.0
32.0
27.0
vs Weaker (23)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
71%
75%
67%
12%
15%
8%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
29%
25%
33%
88%
85%
92%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
Celje
9.4
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Celje
4.9
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Celje
25.0
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
45.5%
Under 9.5
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
55.8%
Under 3.5
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
75.7%
Under 21.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Koper or Draw
60.6%
Avg Implied -
34%
26%
39%
covers Koper + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Koper or Celje
73.7%
Avg Implied -
34%
26%
39%
covers Koper + Celje
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Celje
65.7%
Avg Implied -
34%
26%
39%
covers Draw + Celje
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Koper over/under 0.5
Over
76.8%
Under
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5
Over
42.8%
Under
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5
Over
18.1%
Under
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 3.5
Over
6.1%
Under
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 0.5
Over
79.4%
Under
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 1.5
Over
46.8%
Under
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 2.5
Over
21.1%
Under
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 3.5
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Koper, so a minus line means Koper give that many goals of a start and Celje receive them. At -1, Koper must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Koper win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Koper)
Koper -2
6.2%
Draw -2
10.3%
Celje +2
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Koper)
Koper -1
16.5%
Draw -1
17.7%
Celje +1
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Koper)
Koper +1
60.6%
Draw +1
19.2%
Celje -1
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Koper)
Koper +2
79.8%
Draw +2
12.1%
Celje -2
8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Koper
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.43
0.93
0.36
0.88
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.95
0.42
1.11
0.22
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (11)
0.82
0.45
0.60
0.60
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.73
0.87
0.87
1.33
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
3.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.67
0.78
0.56
1.00
0.83
vs Weaker (13)
1.38
0.69
1.20
1.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Koper over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Koper
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
1.14
0.71
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.74
0.89
0.78
0.70
0.70
vs Weaker (11)
1.27
0.45
1.60
0.60
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.53
1.27
0.33
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.53
0.67
0.22
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
1.31
0.54
2.60
0.40
0.50
0.62
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Koper over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Celje · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Franko Kovačević50%
Armandas Kučys25%
Svit Sešlar25%
Matej Poplatnik20%
Mario Kvesić17%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš17%
Nikita Iosifov17%
Žan Karničnik12%
Danijel Šturm12%
Ivica Vidović12%
Darko Hrka10%
Milot Avdyli8%
Vitaliy Lisakovich0%
Matija Boben0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Juanjo Nieto0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Žan-Luk Leban0%
Papa Daniel0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vitaliy Lisakovich50%
Darko Hrka40%
Matija Boben33%
Ivan Ćalušić33%
Franko Kovačević25%
Matej Poplatnik20%
Mario Kvesić17%
Damjan Vuklišević17%
Juanjo Nieto17%
Žan Karničnik12%
Papa Daniel12%
Łukasz Bejger9%
Žan-Luk Leban9%
Armandas Kučys0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš0%
Svit Sešlar0%
Danijel Šturm0%
Nikita Iosifov0%
Milot Avdyli0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Ivica Vidović0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vitaliy Lisakovich25%
Armandas Kučys25%
Svit Sešlar25%
Mario Kvesić17%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš17%
Milot Avdyli17%
Darko Hrka10%
Juanjo Nieto8%
Nikita Iosifov8%
Franko Kovačević0%
Matija Boben0%
Matej Poplatnik0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Žan Karničnik0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Danijel Šturm0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Žan-Luk Leban0%
Papa Daniel0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Ivica Vidović0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Franko Kovačević50%
Armandas Kučys25%
Mario Kvesić17%
Ivica Vidović12%
Nikita Iosifov8%
Milot Avdyli8%
Vitaliy Lisakovich0%
Matija Boben0%
Matej Poplatnik0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Juanjo Nieto0%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš0%
Žan Karničnik0%
Svit Sešlar0%
Darko Hrka0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Danijel Šturm0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Žan-Luk Leban0%
Papa Daniel0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
Koper's squad is €6m less valuable than Celje's (€8m vs €14m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
Koper's attack is €4m less valuable than Celje's (€3m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Koper and Celje have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Koper's defence is €3m less valuable than Celje's (€3m vs €6m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
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Maribor
Bravo
Aluminij
Brinje-Grosuplje
Olimpija Ljubljana
Nafta
Mura
Radomlje