PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Koper vs Maribor Result & Analysis

Date: 06/12/2023
Time: 16:30
Final 3-3
Koper
Koper
Vs
38%
29%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Maribor
Maribor
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Koper win✗ Miss
38.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maribor win✗ Miss
32.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KoperKoper

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D10W11D11D41W22D11D10W01L23LH·CEL17/09A·MAR24/09A·OLI28/09A·RAD01/10H·ALU08/10A·MUR22/10H·BRA28/10A·ROG04/11H·NK 11/11A·ALU26/11
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.171.271.131.331.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.411.061.440.671.381.50
vs Weaker (13)1.151.311.001.831.290.86
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MariborMaribor

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L31W01L31W12L21W21W01L00D31WH·KOP24/09H·RAD28/09A·ALU01/10H·MUR07/10A·BRA22/10H·ROG28/10A·NK 04/11H·CEL12/11A·MUR26/11H·OLI03/12
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.301.691.121.141.50
vs Stronger (2)0.503.000.003.001.003.00
vs Similar (19)1.261.421.601.100.891.78
vs Weaker (9)2.000.672.200.801.750.50
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.0%
Under 1.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.2%
Under 2.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.8%
Under 3.5
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.6%
No
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0
9.3%
0-0
9.3%
2-1
8.4%
0-1
8.3%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
7.0%
0-2
5.8%
Koper goals ↓
Maribor goals →
01234
09.3%8.3%5.8%2.3%0.7%
19.3%14%7.6%3.0%0.9%
27.0%8.4%5.1%2.0%0.6%
33.1%3.7%2.2%0.9%0.3%
41.0%1.2%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Koper goals (down), columns = Maribor goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Celje
2.19
Maribor
1.94
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.78
Bravo
1.39
Koper
1.33
NK Domzale
1.19
Mura
1.11
Rogaška
1.00
Radomlje
0.92
Aluminij
0.86
Koper is 0.61 points worse than Maribor in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.94).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Celje
2.08
Maribor
1.92
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.92
NK Domzale
1.44
Koper
1.42
Bravo
1.17
Mura
1.08
Rogaška
1.03
Aluminij
1.03
Radomlje
0.92
Koper is 0.50 goals worse than Maribor in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 1.92).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.89
Celje
0.94
Bravo
1.17
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.22
Koper
1.36
Radomlje
1.42
Mura
1.58
NK Domzale
1.67
Rogaška
1.78
Aluminij
1.97
Koper is 0.47 goals worse than Maribor in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 0.89).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Olimpija Ljubljana
62%
Maribor
59%
Koper
56%
Aluminij
46%
Mura
46%
NK Domzale
44%
Celje
41%
Bravo
41%
Koper is 2.9 percentage points worse than Maribor in terms of average possession (56% vs 59%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

KoperKoper

For 5.1 · Against 5.9 · Total 11.0

🚩 Corners

140646441064455624688648101014109116141412A·ALUH·NK H·BRAA·MURH·ALUA·OLIA·MARH·CELA·NK A·BRA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.3

🟨 Cards

7023242114123341113235635157245A·ALUH·NK H·BRAA·MURH·ALUA·OLIA·MARH·CELA·NK A·BRA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 12.9 · Total 26.6

⚠️ Fouls

3602212121914121598612142016716181491134312624142636233220A·ALUH·NK H·BRAA·MURH·ALUA·OLIA·MARH·CELA·NK A·BRA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

MariborMaribor

For 4.3 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.7

🚩 Corners

120238254357547564285251098121111687H·OLIA·MURH·CELA·NK A·BRAH·MURA·ALUH·KOPA·OLIA·CEL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.8

🟨 Cards

90531322423634332118444239752H·OLIA·MURH·CELA·NK A·BRAH·MURA·ALUH·KOPA·OLIA·CEL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 14.1 · Total 26.3

⚠️ Fouls

3601314111210131215712136112116201814111427232327191932363225H·OLIA·MURH·CELA·NK A·BRAH·MURA·ALUH·KOPA·OLIA·CEL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

KoperKoper

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.79.59.92.72.52.825.023.826.2
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (29)9.69.39.93.02.53.624.522.726.1
vs Weaker (21)9.89.79.82.22.61.825.825.426.4
% over line58%47%69%38%28%48%82%76%88%
% under line42%53%31%62%72%52%18%24%12%
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MariborMaribor

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.29.78.83.84.23.325.525.425.5
vs Stronger (2)11.59.014.04.04.04.019.523.016.0
vs Similar (27)8.58.48.64.45.23.526.626.826.3
vs Weaker (21)10.111.98.32.92.92.924.623.625.8
% over line39%40%39%52%52%52%71%68%75%
% under line61%60%61%48%48%48%29%32%25%
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Celje
10.0
Aluminij
9.9
Koper
9.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
NK Domzale
9.4
Maribor
9.1

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.2
NK Domzale
4.8
Maribor
4.8
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.6
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.2
Celje
3.9
Bravo
3.8

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
NK Domzale
26.9
Aluminij
26.5
Maribor
25.5
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.3
Bravo
25.3
Koper
24.9
Mura
24.9
Celje
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
55.6%
Under 9.5
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
57.1%
Under 3.5
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
72.8%
Under 21.5
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KoperKoper

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W10W00D30W01L10W10W00D12LH·CEL17/09A·MAR24/09A·OLI28/09A·RAD01/10H·ALU08/10A·MUR22/10H·BRA28/10A·ROG04/11H·NK 11/11A·ALU26/11
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.500.570.360.690.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.760.470.620.120.890.78
vs Weaker (13)0.460.540.500.670.430.43
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MariborMaribor

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L01L21W00D11D11D00D00D30WH·KOP24/09H·RAD28/09A·ALU01/10H·MUR07/10A·BRA22/10H·ROG28/10A·NK 04/11H·CEL12/11A·MUR26/11H·OLI03/12
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.600.810.620.290.57
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (19)0.470.630.800.500.110.78
vs Weaker (9)0.890.561.000.800.750.25
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Koper over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KoperKoper

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D01L11D11D21W01L00D01L11DH·CEL17/09A·MAR24/09A·OLI28/09A·RAD01/10H·ALU08/10A·MUR22/10H·BRA28/10A·ROG04/11H·NK 11/11A·ALU26/11
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.730.570.860.690.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.590.710.620.620.560.78
vs Weaker (13)0.690.770.501.170.860.43
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MariborMaribor

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D30W00D10W12L10W10W01L00D01LH·KOP24/09H·RAD28/09A·ALU01/10H·MUR07/10A·BRA22/10H·ROG28/10A·NK 04/11H·CEL12/11A·MUR26/11H·OLI03/12
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.700.880.500.860.93
vs Stronger (2)0.502.500.002.001.003.00
vs Similar (19)0.790.790.800.600.781.00
vs Weaker (9)1.110.111.200.001.000.25
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Koper over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 19.5 fouls85.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards78.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards76.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.575.2%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.573.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls72.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
Koper's squad is €2m less valuable than Maribor's (€8m vs €10m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Koper's attack is €2m less valuable than Maribor's (€3m vs €5m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Koper and Maribor have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
Koper and Maribor have a similar defence value (both €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
3
KOP wins
0
Draws
2
MAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Koper vs Maribor · H/A from KOP
DateH/AGameScore
24/09/23AMaribor Vs KOP0-1
08/04/23AMaribor Vs KOP3-1
12/02/23HKOP Vs Maribor0-1
08/10/22AMaribor Vs KOP0-1
31/07/22HKOP Vs Maribor2-1

KoperKoper

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/11/23AAluminij Vs KOP3-2
11/11/23HKOP Vs NK Domzale0-1
04/11/23ARogaška Vs KOP0-1
28/10/23HKOP Vs Bravo1-1
22/10/23AMura Vs KOP2-2
08/10/23HKOP Vs Aluminij4-1
01/10/23ARadomlje Vs KOP1-1
28/09/23AOlimpija Ljubljana Vs KOP1-1
24/09/23AMaribor Vs KOP0-1
17/09/23HKOP Vs Celje1-1

MariborMaribor

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/12/23HMAR Vs Olimpija Ljubljana3-1
26/11/23AMura Vs MAR0-0
12/11/23HMAR Vs Celje0-1
04/11/23ANK Domzale Vs MAR1-2
28/10/23HMAR Vs Rogaška2-1
22/10/23ABravo Vs MAR2-1
07/10/23HMAR Vs Mura3-1
01/10/23AAluminij Vs MAR1-0
28/09/23HMAR Vs Radomlje3-1
24/09/23HMAR Vs Koper0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Koper
Koper
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 3 Wins / 5 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWLL1.52
HomeWDWDL1.40
AwayDDDWL1.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%40%44%
AVG goals2.482.442.52
Over 1.5 %72%68%76%
Over 2.5 %44%40%48%
Over 3.5 %22%20%24%
Scored1.401.401.40
Conceded1.081.041.12
BTTS54%48%60%
Clean Sheet32%28%36%
Corners9.679.479.88
Cards4.033.714.38
Maribor
Maribor
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDW1.68
HomeWWWLW2.00
AwayLLLWD1.36
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%60%36%
AVG goals2.962.962.96
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %58%56%60%
Over 3.5 %34%32%36%
Scored1.821.961.68
Conceded1.141.001.28
BTTS58%56%60%
Clean Sheet24%24%24%
Corners9.249.658.78
Cards4.955.304.56

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1CeljeCelje3679
67%
2.2
7534+41
3.0
86%
61%
42%
9.8
55%
3.9
55%
21.8
60%
14
7162.10.9
41%
2MariborMaribor3670
56%
1.9
6932+37
2.8
81%
58%
31%
8.8
42%
4.4
68%
24.3
68%
10
5231.90.9
59%
3Olimpija LjubljanaOlimpija Ljubljana3664
50%
1.8
6944+25
3.1
81%
56%
42%
9.9
74%
4.1
53%
24.0
61%
12
6151.91.2
62%
4BravoBravo3650
33%
1.4
4242+0
2.3
83%
36%
14%
10.8
68%
3.6
53%
21.3
47%
4
1121.21.2
41%
5KoperKoper3648
33%
1.3
5149+2
2.8
78%
56%
31%
9.1
53%
3.9
59%
26.1
81%
8
3231.41.4
56%
6NK DomzaleNK Domzale3643
36%
1.2
5260-8
3.1
86%
64%
36%
11.3
74%
3.8
53%
24.3
58%
0
0001.41.7
44%
7MuraMura3640
28%
1.1
3957-18
2.7
78%
44%
33%
11.4
74%
3.7
53%
21.6
53%
5
2121.11.6
46%
8RogaškaRogaška3636
28%
1.0
3764-27
2.8
78%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
9RadomljeRadomlje3633
19%
0.9
3351-18
2.3
78%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2120.91.4
-
10AluminijAluminij3631
22%
0.9
3771-34
3.0
78%
53%
39%
10.1
65%
4.8
70%
26.4
75%
4
2121.02.0
46%
11NaftaNafta00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.00.0
-
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →

← all matches