Koper’s recent 2-game winning streak and a 1-0 victory over Aluminij give the model a clear edge for a home win, reflected in the 65% home-win probability. Their home form shows an average of 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded against weaker opposition, while Mura’s away record against stronger teams is 0.6 scored and 2.8 conceded. The expected total of 3.2 goals and the most likely total of 3 (22%) set the stage for a moderately high-scoring encounter. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0 for Koper, with a 10% chance, underscoring the home side’s offensive potency. The model’s pick is a home win, and the overall probabilities read 65% for Koper, 21% for a draw, and 14% for Mura. Suggested selections include Away under 3.5 goals (98.2%), Under 7.5 (98.2%), Under 6.5 (95.3%), Home +2 handicap (95.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.4%), Home over 0.5 goals (89.5%), Under 5.5 (89.1%) and Home or Draw (85.8%). Each selection carries its own probability, with no other outcomes listed.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Koper win
67.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
19.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mura win
12.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Koper
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.07
2.07
1.07
1.69
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.74
1.16
2.00
1.00
1.50
1.30
vs Weaker (11)
2.09
0.91
2.20
1.20
2.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mura
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.80
1.07
1.29
1.25
2.25
vs Stronger (14)
0.79
1.64
0.89
1.00
0.60
2.80
vs Similar (16)
1.50
1.94
1.40
1.80
1.55
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.6%
Under 1.5
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.4%
Under 2.5
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.3%
Under 3.5
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.9%
No
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.3%
2-1
9.7%
1-1
9.2%
1-0
8.0%
3-0
8.0%
3-1
7.5%
4-0
4.7%
0-0
4.6%
Koper goals ↓
Mura goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
2.7%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
1
8.0%
9.2%
3.9%
1.2%
0.3%
2
10%
9.7%
4.6%
1.4%
0.3%
3
8.0%
7.5%
3.5%
1.1%
0.3%
4
4.7%
4.4%
2.1%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Koper goals (down), columns = Mura goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maribor
2.14
Celje
1.83
Koper
1.71
Bravo
1.57
Aluminij
1.14
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.14
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.14
Nafta
1.00
Mura
1.00
Radomlje
0.83
Koper is 0.71 points better than Mura in terms of average points per game (1.71 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Maribor
1.86
Nafta
1.71
Celje
1.67
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.57
Radomlje
1.17
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Mura
1.14
Koper
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.43
Koper is 0.14 goals worse than Mura in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.71
Koper
0.71
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.71
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Celje
1.33
Radomlje
1.67
Nafta
1.71
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.71
Mura
2.00
Koper is 1.29 goals better than Mura in terms of goals conceded per game (0.71 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Koper
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Mura
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Koper
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (31)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (18)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mura
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (22)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Koper) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
Celje
9.4
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Celje
4.9
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Celje
25.0
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
53.0%
Under 9.5
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.4%
Under 3.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
70.7%
Under 21.5
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Koper or Draw
87.2%
Avg Implied -
68%
20%
13%
covers Koper + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Koper or Mura
80.4%
Avg Implied -
68%
20%
13%
covers Koper + Mura
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Mura
32.5%
Avg Implied -
68%
20%
13%
covers Draw + Mura
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Koper over/under 0.5
Over
90.2%
Under
9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5
Over
67.6%
Under
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5
Over
41.1%
Under
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 3.5
Over
20.6%
Under
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 0.5
Over
61.0%
Under
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5
Over
24.3%
Under
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 3.5
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Koper, so a minus line means Koper give that many goals of a start and Mura receive them. At -1, Koper must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Koper win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Koper)
Koper -2
25.3%
Draw -2
20.2%
Mura +2
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Koper)
Koper -1
45.5%
Draw -1
22.0%
Mura +1
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Koper)
Koper +1
87.2%
Draw +1
8.4%
Mura -1
4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Koper)
Koper +2
95.6%
Draw +2
3.3%
Mura -2
1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Koper
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.43
0.93
0.36
0.88
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.95
0.42
1.11
0.22
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (11)
0.82
0.45
0.60
0.60
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mura
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.93
0.50
0.79
0.56
1.06
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
0.93
0.56
0.67
0.40
1.40
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.94
0.40
1.00
0.64
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Koper over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Koper
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
1.14
0.71
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.74
0.89
0.78
0.70
0.70
vs Weaker (11)
1.27
0.45
1.60
0.60
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mura
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.57
0.50
0.69
1.19
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
0.71
0.33
0.33
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (16)
0.94
1.00
1.00
0.80
0.91
1.09
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Koper over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
Koper's squad is €3m more valuable than Mura's (€8m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
Koper's attack is €2m more valuable than Mura's (€3m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Koper's midfield is €1m more valuable than Mura's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Koper and Mura have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Maribor
Celje
Bravo
Aluminij
Brinje-Grosuplje
Olimpija Ljubljana
Nafta
Radomlje