Koper vs Olimpija Ljubljana Result & Analysis

The contest between Koper and Olimpija Ljubljana is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win at 37%. Home and away win probabilities are 32% and 30% respectively, leaving a 30% chance of a draw. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly active match, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.4% probability. Koper, playing at home against a similarly-sized opponent, averages 1.71 goals scored and 1.00 conceded, while Olimpija Ljubljana, on the road, averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded against comparable teams. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 88.5%, Under 3.5 goals at 78.3% (hit), Over 21.5 fouls at 78.1%, Over 2.5 cards at 77.7%, Under 5.5 cards at 76.8%, and Under 11.5 corners at 73.4%. Both sides have recently been on mixed runs, with Koper on a two-game winning streak and Olimpija coming off a draw. The match promises to be evenly matched, with the away side just edging ahead in the model’s assessment.

The upset came early as Koper snatched a 1-0 win, extending their two-game winning run after a 1-0 victory over Aluminij. The pre-match favourite, the model’s pick of an away win, carried a 37% probability, but the outcome proved otherwise. The model’s selection for Under 3.5 goals, with a 78.3% probability, hit the mark. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 (14.4%) and the expected total of 2.4 goals (with 2 goals at 28%) were not realised. Koper’s 1-0 triumph left the model’s favourite wrong, while its single other suggestion was correct.