Korabi Peshkopi vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë Result & Analysis

Date: 03/05/2026

Time: 13:00

Final 1-1

Korabi Peshkopi

37%

26%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Iliria Fushë-Krujë

Albania: 1st Division

Referee: -

Match preview & prediction

In the upcoming match between Korabi Peshkopi and Iliria Fushë-Krujë, both teams have shown defensive solidity. Korabi Peshkopi have conceded an average of 0.73 goals per game at home, while Iliria Fushë-Krujë have conceded 1.0 goal per game away from home against similar opponents.

The model predicts a low-scoring match, with an expected total of 1.6 goals. The most likely scoreline is a 0-0 draw, with a probability of 20.7%. The model's selection is a home win, with a probability of 37%.

Korabi Peshkopi have scored 0.91 goals per game at home, while Iliria Fushë-Krujë have scored 1.0 goal per game away from home against similar opponents.

The model suggests two selections: Under 3.5 goals, with a probability of 91.6%, and Under 2.5 goals, with a probability of 77.3%. The home win percentage is 37%, the draw percentage is 37%, and the away win percentage is 26%.

Results analysis

A surprise draw in Albania's 1st Division as Korabi Peshkopi's recent form storyline came to an end with a 1-1 stalemate against Iliria Fushë-Krujë, extending their run of draws to four matches. The pre-match favourite, Korabi Peshkopi, failed to deliver, as the model's selection for home win was incorrect. The model's call was wrong, despite the team being the favourite with a 37% chance of winning pre-match. The model's selection for Under 3.5 hit, as well as Under 2.5, both of which were suggested picks with probabilities of 91.6% and 77.3% respectively. The final score of 1-1 reflected the most likely outcome predicted by the model, with a probability of 29% for a total of one goal.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Korabi Peshkopi win✗ Miss

37.4%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

Draw✓ Hit

37.1%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

Iliria Fushë-Krujë win✗ Miss

25.6%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Korabi Peshkopi

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.5

Avg scored

0.6

Avg conceded

0.9

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.97	1.23	0.86	0.71	1.06	1.69
vs Stronger (9)	0.56	1.89	0.25	1.25	0.80	2.40
vs Similar (16)	1.12	0.88	1.14	0.57	1.11	1.11
vs Weaker (5)	1.20	1.20	1.00	0.33	1.50	2.50
Clean sheet %	40% (+8pp vs league)

This opponent (Iliria Fushë-Krujë) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Iliria Fushë-Krujë

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.9

Avg scored

1.0

Avg conceded

0.9

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.00	1.00	1.27	0.93	0.73	1.07
vs Stronger (7)	0.29	1.43	0.50	1.50	0.20	1.40
vs Similar (17)	1.24	0.88	1.56	0.78	0.88	1.00
vs Weaker (6)	1.17	0.83	1.00	1.00	1.50	0.50
Clean sheet %	30% (-2pp vs league)

This opponent (Korabi Peshkopi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 1.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (29%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

50.1%

Under 1.5

49.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

22.7%

Under 2.5

77.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under

Over 3.5

8.4%

Under 3.5

91.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Both teams to scoreActual: Yes

Yes

32.1%

67.9%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

0-0

20.7%

1-0

16.6%

1-1 ✓

14.1%

0-1

12.6%

2-0

8.3%

2-1

5.9%

0-2

5.0%

1-2

4.6%

Korabi Peshkopi goals ↓

	Iliria Fushë-Krujë goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	21%	13%	5.0%	1.2%	0.2%
1	17%	14%	4.6%	1.1%	0.2%
2	8.3%	5.9%	2.1%	0.5%	0.1%
3	2.6%	1.8%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%
4	0.6%	0.4%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Korabi Peshkopi goals (down), columns = Iliria Fushë-Krujë goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Laci

2.39

Skenderbeu Korce

2.33

Pogradeci

2.06

Iliria Fushë-Krujë

1.36

Kastrioti Krujë

1.18

Besa Kavajë

1.18

Burreli

1.12

Korabi Peshkopi

1.09

Luftëtari

1.03

Bylis B

1.00

FK Kukesi

1.00

Sopoti Librazhd

1.00

Apolonia Fier

0.85

Lushnja

0.79

Butrinti Sarandë

0.00

Korabi Peshkopi is 0.27 points worse than Iliria Fushë-Krujë in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 1.36).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Pogradeci

1.91

Laci

1.82

Skenderbeu Korce

1.73

Kastrioti Krujë

1.33

Besa Kavajë

1.24

Luftëtari

1.12

Bylis B

1.00

Sopoti Librazhd

1.00

FK Kukesi

0.97

Iliria Fushë-Krujë

0.97

Korabi Peshkopi

0.94

Apolonia Fier

0.94

Burreli

0.82

Lushnja

0.79

Butrinti Sarandë

0.00

Korabi Peshkopi is 0.03 goals worse than Iliria Fushë-Krujë in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 0.97).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Laci

0.70

Skenderbeu Korce

0.76

Pogradeci

0.94

Bylis B

1.00

Sopoti Librazhd

1.00

Iliria Fushë-Krujë

1.00

Korabi Peshkopi

1.18

Luftëtari

1.29

Besa Kavajë

1.30

Apolonia Fier

1.33

Burreli

1.36

Lushnja

1.42

FK Kukesi

1.46

Kastrioti Krujë

1.73

Butrinti Sarandë

2.00

Korabi Peshkopi is 0.18 goals worse than Iliria Fushë-Krujë in terms of goals conceded per game (1.18 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Under 3.5	91.6%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Under 2.5	77.3%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

BB (55)

€6m

SK (31)

€4m

LAC (24)

€3m

POG (47)

€3m

BK (34)

€3m

AF (39)

€2m

KK (24)

€2m

KP (34)

€2m

FK (38)

€2m

IF (35)

€2m

BUR (29)

€2m

LUF (42)

€2m

LUS (40)

€1m

Korabi Peshkopi and Iliria Fushë-Krujë have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

LAC (0)

€0m

SK (0)

€0m

AF (0)

€0m

BK (0)

€0m

BUR (0)

€0m

BB (0)

€0m

FK (0)

€0m

IF (0)

€0m

KK (0)

€0m

KP (0)

€0m

LUF (0)

€0m

LUS (0)

€0m

POG (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

LAC (0)

€0m

SK (0)

€0m

AF (0)

€0m

BK (0)

€0m

BUR (0)

€0m

BB (0)

€0m

FK (0)

€0m

IF (0)

€0m

KK (0)

€0m

KP (0)

€0m

LUF (0)

€0m

LUS (0)

€0m

POG (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

LAC (0)

€0m

SK (0)

€0m

AF (0)

€0m

BK (0)

€0m

BUR (0)

€0m

BB (0)

€0m

FK (0)

€0m

IF (0)

€0m

KK (0)

€0m

KP (0)

€0m

LUF (0)

€0m

LUS (0)

€0m

POG (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Korabi Peshkopi vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë · H/A from KP

Date	H/A	Game	Score
24/01/26	H	KP Vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë	2-1
24/10/25	A	Iliria Fushë-Krujë Vs KP	2-1

Korabi Peshkopi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
25/04/26	A	Besa Kavajë Vs KP	1-1
19/04/26	A	FK Kukesi Vs KP	1-1
11/04/26	H	KP Vs Apolonia Fier	0-0
04/04/26	A	Lushnja Vs KP	2-1
22/03/26	H	KP Vs Luftëtari	1-0
18/03/26	A	Skenderbeu Korce Vs KP	0-0
14/03/26	H	KP Vs Laci	0-1
07/03/26	A	Pogradeci Vs KP	4-1
28/02/26	H	KP Vs Kastrioti Krujë	1-0
22/02/26	A	Burreli Vs KP	0-0

Iliria Fushë-Krujë

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
25/04/26	H	IF Vs Apolonia Fier	2-1
19/04/26	A	Lushnja Vs IF	0-3
11/04/26	H	IF Vs Luftëtari	1-2
04/04/26	A	Skenderbeu Korce Vs IF	1-0
22/03/26	H	IF Vs Laci	1-1
18/03/26	A	Pogradeci Vs IF	3-0
14/03/26	H	IF Vs Kastrioti Krujë	1-0
07/03/26	A	Burreli Vs IF	0-0
01/03/26	H	IF Vs FK Kukesi	1-1
22/02/26	H	IF Vs Besa Kavajë	1-0

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Korabi Peshkopi

Albania: 1st Division

Recent: 2 Wins / 5 Draws / 3 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WLDDD	1.26
Home	DWLWD	1.70
Away	LDLDD	0.89

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	34%	48%	22%
AVG goals	2.38	1.87	2.81
Over 1.5 %	68%	52%	81%
Over 2.5 %	46%	30%	59%
Over 3.5 %	18%	9%	26%
Scored	1.06	1.09	1.04
Conceded	1.32	0.78	1.78
BTTS	44%	35%	52%
Clean Sheet	34%	43%	26%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

Iliria Fushë-Krujë

Albania: 1st Division

Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	DLLWW	1.33
Home	DWDLW	1.71
Away	DDLLW	0.94

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	33%	47%	19%
AVG goals	1.97	2.12	1.81
Over 1.5 %	67%	71%	62%
Over 2.5 %	36%	41%	31%
Over 3.5 %	6%	6%	6%
Scored	0.94	1.18	0.69
Conceded	1.03	0.94	1.12
BTTS	48%	59%	38%
Clean Sheet	30%	29%	31%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 13. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Laci	33	79	73%	2.4	60	23	+37	2.5	73%	52%	18%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	0	0	0	1.8	0.7	-
2	Skenderbeu Korce	33	77	73%	2.3	57	25	+32	2.5	64%	45%	21%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	4	0	0	0	1.7	0.8	-
3	Pogradeci	33	68	61%	2.1	63	31	+32	2.8	76%	58%	36%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	0	0	0	1.9	0.9	-
4	Iliria Fushë-Krujë	33	45	33%	1.4	32	33	-1	2.0	67%	36%	6%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	0	0	0	1.0	1.0	-
5	Besa Kavajë	33	39	30%	1.2	41	43	-2	2.5	70%	48%	24%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	0	0	0	1.2	1.3	-
6	Kastrioti Krujë	33	39	33%	1.2	44	57	-13	3.1	76%	61%	39%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	0	0	0	1.3	1.7	-
7	Burreli	33	37	27%	1.1	27	45	-18	2.2	64%	36%	15%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	0	0	0	0.8	1.4	-
8	Korabi Peshkopi	33	36	24%	1.1	31	39	-8	2.1	64%	36%	18%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	0	0	0	0.9	1.2	-
9	Luftëtari	34	35	21%	1.0	38	44	-6	2.4	76%	47%	21%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	0	0	0	1.1	1.3	-
10	FK Kukesi	35	35	26%	1.0	34	51	-17	2.4	74%	43%	20%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	0	0	0	1.0	1.5	-
11	Apolonia Fier	33	28	18%	0.8	31	44	-13	2.3	70%	39%	15%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	0	0	0	0.9	1.3	-
12	Lushnja	33	26	15%	0.8	26	47	-21	2.2	61%	39%	18%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	0	0	0.8	1.4	-
13	Bylis B	1	1	0%	1.0	1	1	+0	2.0	100%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	6	0	0	0	1.0	1.0	-
14	Sopoti Librazhd	1	1	0%	1.0	1	1	+0	2.0	100%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	1.0	-
15	Butrinti Sarandë	1	0	0%	0.0	0	2	-2	2.0	100%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.0	2.0	-

Albania: 1st Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →

← all matches

Korabi Peshkopi vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Korabi Peshkopi

Iliria Fushë-Krujë

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Korabi Peshkopi

Iliria Fushë-Krujë

📊 12. Overall Statistics

🏆 13. League Table

A Pro feature