The contest between Korabi Peshkopi and Pogradeci is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. The probabilities are 33% for a home victory, 31% for a draw and 36% for an away triumph, so the latter is the single most likely outcome. On average the match should see 2.3 goals, with the most probable total being two goals at 28% probability. The score that the model deems most likely is 1-1, carrying a 14.7% chance. Korabi, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 0.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Pogradeci, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 2.0 scored and 1.56 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.5%), Under 5.5 (97.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.0%), Under 4.5 (92.2%), Home under 2.5 goals (90.2%), and Away under 2.5 goals (88.8%). Korabi’s recent form shows a draw after a 1-1 against Iliria Fushë-Krujë, while Pogradeci comes off a 0-1 defeat to Teuta Durrës.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Korabi Peshkopi win
32.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci win
35.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Korabi Peshkopi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.27
0.87
0.73
1.13
1.80
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
2.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (24)
1.04
1.08
0.92
0.69
1.18
1.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogradeci) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pogradeci
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
0.90
2.40
0.40
1.60
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.89
0.33
0.33
1.00
1.17
vs Weaker (21)
2.52
0.90
2.92
0.42
2.00
1.56
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Korabi Peshkopi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.2%
Under 1.5
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.2%
Under 2.5
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.1%
Under 3.5
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
47.0%
No
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
11.8%
0-1
10.8%
1-0
10.2%
1-2
7.7%
2-1
7.3%
0-2
7.1%
2-0
6.3%
Korabi Peshkopi goals ↓
Pogradeci goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
11%
7.1%
2.7%
0.8%
1
10%
15%
7.7%
3.0%
0.9%
2
6.3%
7.3%
4.2%
1.6%
0.5%
3
2.3%
2.7%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.6%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Korabi Peshkopi goals (down), columns = Pogradeci goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Pogradeci
2.06
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.36
Flamurtari
1.23
Oriku
1.23
Bylis
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.23
Besa Kavajë
1.18
Kastrioti Krujë
1.18
Burreli
1.12
Korabi Peshkopi
1.09
FK Kukesi
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Korabi Peshkopi is 0.97 points worse than Pogradeci in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 2.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Pogradeci
1.91
Kastrioti Krujë
1.33
Besa Kavajë
1.24
Flamurtari
1.10
Oriku
1.10
Bylis
1.10
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.10
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.97
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
0.94
Burreli
0.82
Korabi Peshkopi is 0.97 goals worse than Pogradeci in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.91).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pogradeci
0.94
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Korabi Peshkopi
1.18
Flamurtari
1.23
Oriku
1.23
Bylis
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.23
Besa Kavajë
1.30
Burreli
1.36
FK Kukesi
1.46
Kastrioti Krujë
1.73
Korabi Peshkopi is 0.24 goals worse than Pogradeci in terms of goals conceded per game (1.18 vs 0.94).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Korabi Peshkopi or Draw
64.1%
Avg Implied -
33%
31%
36%
covers Korabi Peshkopi + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Korabi Peshkopi or Pogradeci
68.6%
Avg Implied -
33%
31%
36%
covers Korabi Peshkopi + Pogradeci
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Pogradeci
67.3%
Avg Implied -
33%
31%
36%
covers Draw + Pogradeci
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Korabi Peshkopi over/under 0.5
Over
66.5%
Under
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Korabi Peshkopi over/under 1.5
Over
29.9%
Under
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Korabi Peshkopi over/under 2.5
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Korabi Peshkopi over/under 3.5
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 0.5
Over
68.6%
Under
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 1.5
Over
32.3%
Under
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 2.5
Over
11.2%
Under
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 3.5
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Korabi Peshkopi, so a minus line means Korabi Peshkopi give that many goals of a start and Pogradeci receive them. At -1, Korabi Peshkopi must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Korabi Peshkopi win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Korabi Peshkopi)
Korabi Peshkopi -2
4.1%
Draw -2
9.4%
Pogradeci +2
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Korabi Peshkopi)
Korabi Peshkopi -1
13.5%
Draw -1
19.2%
Pogradeci +1
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Korabi Peshkopi)
Korabi Peshkopi +1
64.1%
Draw +1
20.4%
Pogradeci -1
15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Korabi Peshkopi)
Korabi Peshkopi +2
84.4%
Draw +2
10.6%
Pogradeci -2
5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Korabi Peshkopi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.40
0.27
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (24)
0.42
0.46
0.46
0.23
0.36
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogradeci) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pogradeci
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.43
1.20
0.27
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.11
0.33
0.00
0.33
0.17
0.33
vs Weaker (21)
1.33
0.48
1.50
0.25
1.11
0.78
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Korabi Peshkopi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Korabi Peshkopi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Korabi Peshkopi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Korabi Peshkopi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Korabi Peshkopi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.47
0.47
0.73
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (24)
0.62
0.62
0.46
0.46
0.82
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogradeci) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pogradeci
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.47
1.20
0.13
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.56
0.33
0.00
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (21)
1.19
0.43
1.42
0.17
0.89
0.78
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Korabi Peshkopi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Korabi Peshkopi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Korabi Peshkopi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Korabi Peshkopi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BK (21)
€2m
POG (14)
€2m
IF (26)
€2m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
BUR (21)
€1m
FK (20)
€1m
Korabi Peshkopi and Pogradeci have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BK (6)
€1m
POG (5)
€1m
IF (9)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
FK (6)
€0m
BUR (5)
€0m
Korabi Peshkopi and Pogradeci have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KK (7)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
BUR (8)
€0m
KP (4)
€0m
POG (2)
€0m
IF (6)
€0m
FK (4)
€0m
Korabi Peshkopi and Pogradeci have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BK (8)
€1m
POG (7)
€1m
IF (11)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
FK (10)
€1m
BUR (8)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
Korabi Peshkopi and Pogradeci have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Albania: 1st Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Burreli
Flamurtari
Oriku
Bylis
Kastrioti Krujë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
FK Kukesi
Sopoti Librazhd
Besa Kavajë
Iliria Fushë-Krujë