This highly anticipated match between Krylia Sovetov and Baltika in the Russia: Premier League is finely balanced, with Krylia Sovetov coming off a draw against CSKA Moscow. The home side has struggled to score at home, averaging 1.12 goals per game against stronger opponents, while conceding 1.62 goals. Baltika, on the other hand, has excelled away from home, scoring 1.14 goals and conceding just 0.57 goals against weaker opponents.
The model predicts a home win, with a 41% probability, while the draw has a 30% chance and the away win a 29% chance. The expected total goals stands at 2.4, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The single most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 14.2%.
The model's selection for the most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 14.2%. It also suggests over 21.5 fouls (88.6%), under 3.5 goals (77.7%), and over 1.5 goals (70.6%, with a 5% edge).
Results analysis
In a stunning upset, Baltika took home all three points with a 0-2 win over Krylia Sovetov, extending their winning run to two games. This result comes as a surprise, given Krylia Sovetov's recent struggles, including a defeat in their last outing against Baltika. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect, with the pre-match probability standing at 41%. The model's call was wrong, and Baltika's win was the actual result. Meanwhile, the model correctly identified the likelihood of over 21.5 fouls being hit, with an 88.6% probability, and suggested under 3.5 goals, which was also hit with a 77.7% probability. Over 1.5 goals was another correct call, with a 70.6% probability.
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šÆ 1. Model Analysis
Krylia Sovetov winā Miss
40.7%
Avg Implied 30.6% · @ 3.09
Edge
+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.24
Pinnacle
3.19
Marathonbet
3.16
Dafabet
3.05
Superbet
3.00
Drawā Miss
30.0%
Avg Implied 30.3% · @ 3.12
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.26
Pinnacle
3.19
Marathonbet
3.18
Dafabet
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Baltika winā Hit
29.3%
Avg Implied 39.0% · @ 2.43
Edge
-9.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.50
Dafabet
2.48
Pinnacle
2.46
Superbet
2.45
Marathonbet
2.44
ā½ 2. Goal Analysis
Krylia Sovetov
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.70
1.87
1.33
0.40
2.07
vs Stronger (14)
1.00
2.14
1.71
1.86
0.29
2.43
vs Similar (16)
1.25
1.31
2.00
0.88
0.50
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Baltika) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Baltika
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.80
1.38
0.69
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (17)
1.53
0.71
1.55
0.64
1.50
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
2.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Krylia Sovetov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.6%
@ 1.42+5.0%
Under 1.5
29.4%
@ 2.71-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.88
Superbet
2.67
Marathonbet
2.65
1xBet
2.65
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.2%
@ 2.38+3.0%
Under 2.5
56.8%
@ 1.60-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.43
Pinnacle
2.39
Superbet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.35
Under
1xBet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.61
Marathonbet
1.60
Superbet
1.55
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.3%
@ 4.36+0.9%
Under 3.5
77.7%
@ 1.19-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.54
Superbet
4.40
Marathonbet
4.25
1xBet
4.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.9%
@ 1.97+2.7%
No
50.1%
@ 1.76-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
No
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.76
Superbet
1.73
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%@ 5.58+6.4%
1-0
10.6%@ 7.35+4.7%
0-0
10.3%@ 7.11+4.2%
2-1
8.5%@ 11.35+4.7%
0-1
8.5%@ 6.16+1.4%
2-0
7.9%@ 14.23+4.8%
1-2
7.0%@ 9.42+2.4%
0-2 ā
5.3%@ 10.21+1.0%
Krylia Sovetov goals ↓
Baltika goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
8.5%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
1
11%
14%
7.0%
2.5%
0.7%
2
7.9%
8.5%
4.6%
1.7%
0.5%
3
3.5%
3.8%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.1%
1.2%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Krylia Sovetov goals (down), columns = Baltika goals (across).
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šŖ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
š Total PPG
Points / game
FC Krasnodar
3.00
Spartak Moscow
2.17
CSKA Moscow
2.00
Zenit
2.00
Dynamo
1.67
Baltika
1.67
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.50
Rubin
1.50
FC Orenburg
1.17
Krylia Sovetov
1.00
Akhmat
1.00
FC Rostov
0.83
Rodina Moskva
0.67
Akron
0.50
Lokomotiv
0.50
Fakel
0.33
Krylia Sovetov is 0.67 points worse than Baltika in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.67).
āļø Attack
Goals scored / game
Zenit
2.17
Spartak Moscow
1.83
FC Krasnodar
1.83
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.67
Baltika
1.67
CSKA Moscow
1.50
Akhmat
1.50
Rubin
1.50
Krylia Sovetov
1.33
Dynamo
1.33
Rodina Moskva
1.33
FC Rostov
1.17
Akron
1.00
Lokomotiv
0.83
FC Orenburg
0.83
Fakel
0.50
Krylia Sovetov is 0.33 goals worse than Baltika in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.67).
š”ļø Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Krasnodar
0.67
Zenit
0.67
Spartak Moscow
0.83
CSKA Moscow
1.00
Baltika
1.00
Fakel
1.17
Dynamo
1.17
FC Orenburg
1.17
Akhmat
1.33
Lokomotiv
1.33
Rubin
1.33
Krylia Sovetov
1.67
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.67
FC Rostov
1.67
Akron
2.50
Rodina Moskva
2.83
Krylia Sovetov is 0.67 goals worse than Baltika in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.00).
ā±ļø Possession
Avg possession %
Dynamo
63%
Spartak Moscow
62%
Zenit
60%
CSKA Moscow
57%
FC Krasnodar
57%
Akron
54%
Lokomotiv
51%
FC Rostov
49%
Fakel
48%
Akhmat
47%
Rubin
47%
Krylia Sovetov
46%
Rodina Moskva
44%
Dinamo Makhachkala
40%
FC Orenburg
39%
Baltika
36%
Krylia Sovetov is 10.2 percentage points better than Baltika in terms of average possession (46% vs 36%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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š„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
āļø 7. Handicap
ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Krylia Sovetov
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.83
0.93
0.67
0.13
1.00
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
0.93
0.57
0.86
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.75
1.25
0.50
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Baltika) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Baltika
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.33
0.50
0.31
0.50
0.36
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
0.50
0.25
0.25
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.24
0.64
0.27
0.83
0.17
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Krylia Sovetov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Krylia Sovetov over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krylia Sovetov over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krylia Sovetov over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baltika over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baltika over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baltika over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Krylia Sovetov
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.93
0.67
0.27
1.07
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
1.21
1.14
1.00
0.29
1.43
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.56
0.75
0.38
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Baltika) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Baltika
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.47
0.88
0.38
0.43
0.57
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.47
0.91
0.36
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Krylia Sovetov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Krylia Sovetov over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krylia Sovetov over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krylia Sovetov over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baltika over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baltika over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baltika over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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š„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Miss
Under 3.5
77.7%
1.19
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
-
-0.9%
ā Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.2%
1.18
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
-
-
-1.1%
ā Hit
Under 5.5 cards
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Over 1.5
70.6%
1.42
Superbet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
-
+5.0%
ā Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
š½ 13. Player market rates
Krylia Sovetov
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nikita Chernov50%
Ivan Oleynikov33%
Vladislav Shitov33%
Dominik Oroz17%
Maksim Vityugov17%
Nikolay Rasskazov0%
Kirill Pechenin0%
Fernando Costanza0%
Thomas Galdames0%
Yuriy Gorshkov0%
Sergey Bozhin0%
Mihajlo Banjac0%
Sergey Pesyakov0%
Amar RahmanoviÄ0%
Martin KramariÄ0%
Denis Makarov0%
Dani FernƔndez0%
Sergey Babkin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Denis Makarov40%
Dominik Oroz33%
Kirill Pechenin33%
Thomas Galdames33%
Maksim Vityugov33%
Nikita Chernov25%
Sergey Babkin25%
Fernando Costanza20%
Nikolay Rasskazov0%
Yuriy Gorshkov0%
Sergey Bozhin0%
Ivan Oleynikov0%
Mihajlo Banjac0%
Sergey Pesyakov0%
Amar RahmanoviÄ0%
Martin KramariÄ0%
Dani FernƔndez0%
Vladislav Shitov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Yuriy Gorshkov67%
Mihajlo Banjac25%
Maksim Vityugov17%
Martin KramariÄ17%
Nikita Chernov0%
Nikolay Rasskazov0%
Dominik Oroz0%
Kirill Pechenin0%
Fernando Costanza0%
Thomas Galdames0%
Sergey Bozhin0%
Ivan Oleynikov0%
Sergey Pesyakov0%
Amar RahmanoviÄ0%
Denis Makarov0%
Dani FernƔndez0%
Vladislav Shitov0%
Sergey Babkin0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ivan Oleynikov33%
Mihajlo Banjac25%
Fernando Costanza20%
Maksim Vityugov17%
Nikita Chernov0%
Nikolay Rasskazov0%
Dominik Oroz0%
Kirill Pechenin0%
Thomas Galdames0%
Yuriy Gorshkov0%
Sergey Bozhin0%
Sergey Pesyakov0%
Amar RahmanoviÄ0%
Martin KramariÄ0%
Denis Makarov0%
Dani FernƔndez0%
Vladislav Shitov0%
Sergey Babkin0%
Baltika
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Brayan Gil40%
Nnamdi Chinonso Offor33%
Eldar ÄiviÄ25%
Aymane Mourid20%
Andrey Mendel17%
Nikolay Titkov17%
Maksim Petrov17%
Sergey Varatynov17%
Evgeniy Latyshonok0%
Fahd Moufi0%
Mingiyan Beveev0%
Eduardo Anderson0%
Konstantin Shiltsov0%
Nathan Gassama0%
Ivan Belikov0%
Vladislav Pospelov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aymane Mourid60%
Mingiyan Beveev33%
Eduardo Anderson33%
Andrey Mendel33%
Nikolay Titkov33%
Maksim Petrov17%
Evgeniy Latyshonok0%
Fahd Moufi0%
Eldar ÄiviÄ0%
Nnamdi Chinonso Offor0%
Brayan Gil0%
Konstantin Shiltsov0%
Nathan Gassama0%
Sergey Varatynov0%
Ivan Belikov0%
Vladislav Pospelov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nathan Gassama33%
Aymane Mourid20%
Nikolay Titkov17%
Maksim Petrov17%
Sergey Varatynov17%
Vladislav Pospelov17%
Evgeniy Latyshonok0%
Fahd Moufi0%
Mingiyan Beveev0%
Eldar ÄiviÄ0%
Eduardo Anderson0%
Andrey Mendel0%
Nnamdi Chinonso Offor0%
Brayan Gil0%
Konstantin Shiltsov0%
Ivan Belikov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nnamdi Chinonso Offor50%
Aymane Mourid20%
Maksim Petrov17%
Evgeniy Latyshonok0%
Fahd Moufi0%
Mingiyan Beveev0%
Eldar ÄiviÄ0%
Eduardo Anderson0%
Andrey Mendel0%
Brayan Gil0%
Nikolay Titkov0%
Konstantin Shiltsov0%
Nathan Gassama0%
Sergey Varatynov0%
Ivan Belikov0%
Vladislav Pospelov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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š° 14. Squad value
š° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (26)
€182m
SM (26)
€129m
FK (28)
€114m
CM (27)
€111m
DYN (28)
€110m
LOK (27)
€68m
RUB (27)
€45m
FR (28)
€32m
BAL (31)
€30m
AKH (25)
€30m
KS (27)
€26m
AKR (25)
€25m
DM (29)
€20m
FO (30)
€18m
RM (26)
€17m
FAK (26)
€14m
Krylia Sovetov's squad is €5m less valuable than Baltika's (€26m vs €30m).
āļø Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (9)
€100m
SM (10)
€59m
DYN (8)
€45m
CM (11)
€37m
FK (9)
€34m
LOK (8)
€21m
AKH (11)
€17m
FR (11)
€14m
AKR (9)
€11m
BAL (10)
€10m
KS (11)
€9m
DM (13)
€9m
FO (12)
€8m
RUB (5)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
FAK (10)
€5m
Krylia Sovetov and Baltika have a similar attack value (both €9m).
š§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CM (5)
€48m
SM (6)
€37m
FK (7)
€35m
ZEN (5)
€31m
DYN (7)
€24m
RUB (6)
€12m
LOK (7)
€8m
BAL (6)
€6m
AKR (6)
€6m
KS (4)
€6m
FR (5)
€5m
AKH (4)
€4m
RM (4)
€3m
FO (5)
€3m
DM (5)
€3m
FAK (4)
€2m
Krylia Sovetov and Baltika have a similar midfield value (both €6m).
š”ļø Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (12)
€50m
FK (12)
€45m
DYN (13)
€42m
LOK (12)
€40m
SM (10)
€34m
CM (11)
€26m
RUB (16)
€25m
BAL (15)
€15m
FR (12)
€13m
KS (12)
€11m
AKH (10)
€9m
AKR (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€8m
FO (13)
€7m
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
Krylia Sovetov's defence is €4m less valuable than Baltika's (€11m vs €15m).
Russia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Krasnodar
Spartak Moscow
Zenit
CSKA Moscow
Dynamo
Rubin
Dinamo Makhachkala
FC Orenburg
Akhmat
FC Rostov
Rodina Moskva
Lokomotiv
Akron
Fakel