In this matchup between ŁKS Łódź and Chrobry Głogów, the recent form of ŁKS Łódź, who are coming off a win, suggests that they will be a force to be reckoned with. However, Chrobry Głogów have struggled in their last few matches, including a defeat in their last outing.
The model predicts that ŁKS Łódź will win, with a 44% chance of a home win, 27% chance of a draw, and 29% chance of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13% chance of occurrence.
ŁKS Łódź have a strong home record, scoring an average of 1.54 goals and conceding 1.31 goals per match against similar opponents. Chrobry Głogów have a decent away record, scoring 1.43 goals and conceding 1 goal per match against similar opponents.
The model's selection is the home win, with the ŁKS Łódź win percentage standing at 44%. The suggested picks include Over 1.5, with a 77.9% probability and a 5% edge. The draw percentage is 27% and the away win percentage is 29%.
Results analysis
The away win by Chrobry Głogów was a major upset, as they defeated the previously undefeated home side, ŁKS Łódź, by a score of 1-2. This win extends the away team's run of coming off a win, having beaten ŁKS Łódź just last week. The model's selection, ŁKS Łódź, was the pre-match favourite with a 44% chance of winning, but unfortunately, the model's call was incorrect. The model's selection was not the only one to miss out, as the suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals also hit, with a 77.9% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
ŁKS Łódź win✗ Miss
43.6%
Avg Implied 54.3% · @ 1.67
Edge
-10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.72
Dafabet
1.72
Superbet
1.72
Betano
1.70
888Sport
1.70
Draw✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied 25.3% · @ 3.59
Edge
+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.87
Betfair
3.75
Dafabet
3.70
Betano
3.70
1xBet
3.62
Chrobry Głogów win✓ Hit
29.0%
Avg Implied 20.3% · @ 4.47
Edge
+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.68
Dafabet
4.60
Betano
4.60
BetVictor
4.60
Betfair
4.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
ŁKS Łódź
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.40
1.75
1.38
1.57
1.43
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.65
1.42
1.64
1.50
1.67
1.33
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.33
4.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Chrobry Głogów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chrobry Głogów
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.13
1.54
1.08
1.47
1.18
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.67
0.50
1.50
0.75
1.75
vs Similar (24)
1.71
1.00
1.73
1.00
1.69
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (ŁKS Łódź) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.9%
@ 1.27+5.0%
Under 1.5
22.1%
@ 3.41-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Under
Pinnacle
3.69
BetVictor
3.60
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.35
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.8%
@ 1.88+3.3%
Under 2.5
47.2%
@ 1.84-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.94
888Sport
1.91
Betano
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.94
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Betfair
1.85
Bet365
1.85
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.6%
@ 3.19+1.5%
Under 3.5
69.4%
@ 1.30-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.30
888Sport
3.30
Betfair
3.25
Superbet
3.20
Under
Betfair
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.1%
@ 1.83+6.6%
No
42.9%
@ 1.87-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.91
Betfair
1.87
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.87
888Sport
1.85
No
William Hil
1.91
BetVictor
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Unibet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.87
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%@ 6.62+6.3%
2-1
9.2%@ 7.45+3.2%
1-0
8.4%@ 6.24+1.3%
2-0
7.4%@ 7.33+1.4%
0-0
7.3%@ 9.28+2.6%
1-2 ✓
7.3%@ 13.87+4.1%
0-1
6.4%@ 11.39+2.5%
2-2
5.7%@ 14.98+2.7%
ŁKS Łódź goals ↓
Chrobry Głogów goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.3%
6.4%
4.7%
1.9%
0.6%
1
8.4%
13%
7.3%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.4%
9.2%
5.7%
2.3%
0.7%
3
3.9%
4.8%
2.9%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.5%
1.9%
1.1%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ŁKS Łódź goals (down), columns = Chrobry Głogów goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Miedz Legnica
2.17
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.83
Arka Gdynia
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Warta Poznań
1.50
Pogoń Siedlce
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.33
Odra Opole
1.33
Nieciecza
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.83
ŁKS Łódź is 0.17 points better than Chrobry Głogów in terms of average points per game (1.83 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.83
Stal Mielec
1.83
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Miedz Legnica
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
ŁKS Łódź
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.50
Nieciecza
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.83
Unia Skierniewice
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.67
Ruch Chorzów
0.50
ŁKS Łódź and Chrobry Głogów are level in goals scored per game (both 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.83
Chrobry Głogów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.83
ŁKS Łódź
0.83
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.33
Unia Skierniewice
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.67
Nieciecza
1.67
Podbeskidzie
1.67
Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.17
Polonia Bytom
2.50
ŁKS Łódź and Chrobry Głogów are level in goals conceded per game (both 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ŁKS Łódź
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.67
0.75
0.75
0.64
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.69
0.64
0.86
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Chrobry Głogów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chrobry Głogów
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.69
0.69
0.59
0.65
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.33
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.50
0.73
0.55
0.62
0.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (ŁKS Łódź) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ŁKS Łódź
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.73
1.00
0.62
0.93
0.86
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.00
0.73
1.00
0.64
1.00
0.83
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Chrobry Głogów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chrobry Głogów
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.47
0.85
0.38
0.88
0.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (24)
1.04
0.50
1.00
0.45
1.08
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (ŁKS Łódź) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.9%
1.27
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
+5.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
ŁKS Łódź · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dani Ramirez28%
Stipe Jurić21%
Kay Tejan21%
Jedrzej Zajac17%
Husein Balić15%
Engjell Hoti14%
Artemijus Tutyškinas9%
Piotr Janczukowicz7%
Antoni Mlynarczyk6%
Pirulo5%
Rahil Mammadov0%
Riza Durmisi0%
Nacho Monsalve0%
Maciej Śliwa0%
Adam Marciniak0%
Kamil Dankowski0%
Dawid Arndt0%
Marcin Flis0%
Bartosz Szeliga0%
Levent Gülen0%
Anton Fase0%
Piotr Głowacki0%
Adrian Małachowski0%
Oskar Koprowski0%
Jakub Letniowski0%
Michał Mokrzycki0%
Adrien Louveau0%
Mieszko Lorenc0%
Aleksander Bobek0%
Thiago Ceijas0%
Jan Łabędzki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jakub Letniowski38%
Riza Durmisi36%
Adam Marciniak29%
Dawid Arndt29%
Adrien Louveau27%
Artemijus Tutyškinas27%
Oskar Koprowski25%
Pirulo24%
Michał Mokrzycki21%
Kay Tejan21%
Rahil Mammadov19%
Marcin Flis19%
Engjell Hoti17%
Nacho Monsalve17%
Levent Gülen17%
Jedrzej Zajac17%
Husein Balić15%
Dani Ramirez12%
Thiago Ceijas12%
Antoni Mlynarczyk12%
Aleksander Bobek12%
Piotr Janczukowicz11%
Kamil Dankowski10%
Bartosz Szeliga10%
Stipe Jurić5%
Piotr Głowacki4%
Maciej Śliwa0%
Anton Fase0%
Adrian Małachowski0%
Mieszko Lorenc0%
Jan Łabędzki0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Adrian Małachowski17%
Antoni Mlynarczyk12%
Kay Tejan10%
Riza Durmisi9%
Michał Mokrzycki7%
Kamil Dankowski7%
Dani Ramirez6%
Levent Gülen6%
Adrien Louveau5%
Piotr Głowacki4%
Piotr Janczukowicz4%
Bartosz Szeliga3%
Rahil Mammadov0%
Husein Balić0%
Nacho Monsalve0%
Maciej Śliwa0%
Adam Marciniak0%
Dawid Arndt0%
Marcin Flis0%
Pirulo0%
Stipe Jurić0%
Anton Fase0%
Oskar Koprowski0%
Jakub Letniowski0%
Mieszko Lorenc0%
Aleksander Bobek0%
Engjell Hoti0%
Thiago Ceijas0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Jan Łabędzki0%
Jedrzej Zajac0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Adrian Małachowski17%
Kay Tejan14%
Marcin Flis12%
Pirulo10%
Dani Ramirez9%
Husein Balić8%
Rahil Mammadov0%
Riza Durmisi0%
Nacho Monsalve0%
Maciej Śliwa0%
Adam Marciniak0%
Kamil Dankowski0%
Dawid Arndt0%
Bartosz Szeliga0%
Levent Gülen0%
Stipe Jurić0%
Anton Fase0%
Piotr Głowacki0%
Oskar Koprowski0%
Jakub Letniowski0%
Piotr Janczukowicz0%
Michał Mokrzycki0%
Adrien Louveau0%
Mieszko Lorenc0%
Aleksander Bobek0%
Engjell Hoti0%
Thiago Ceijas0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Jan Łabędzki0%
Antoni Mlynarczyk0%
Jedrzej Zajac0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
ŁKS Łódź's squad is €1m more valuable than Chrobry Głogów's (€4m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
ŁKS Łódź and Chrobry Głogów have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (3)
€5m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
ŁKS Łódź and Chrobry Głogów have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
ŁKS Łódź and Chrobry Głogów have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →