The Pythia model sees ŁKS Łódź as the clear favourite, rating a 79% chance of a home win, 14% for a draw and only 7% that Podbeskidzie can lift the trophy. The 3.7 expected goals and a 21% chance of a 3-goal total underline a high-scoring affair, with the most likely scoreline 2-0 for the home side at 10.3%. ŁKS Łódź’s home form is formidable: they average four goals scored and none conceded against weaker opposition, while Podbeskidzie, playing away against stronger teams, struggles to find the net, scoring just 0.87 on average and conceding 2.27. The model’s suggested picks echo this imbalance: Away under 3.5 goals (99.1%), Home +2 handicap (97.9%), Under 7.5 (96.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (95.1%), Home over 0.5 goals (94.5%), Home or Draw (93.1%), Home +1 handicap (93.1%), and Under 6.5 (91.8%). The recent form notes that ŁKS Łódź is coming off a draw while Podbeskidzie is still recovering from a defeat, further tilting the odds toward the home side.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
ŁKS Łódź win
79.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
13.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Podbeskidzie win
7.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
ŁKS Łódź
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.27
1.81
1.31
1.29
1.21
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.54
1.27
1.71
1.43
1.33
1.08
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.33
4.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Podbeskidzie) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Podbeskidzie
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.73
1.13
1.20
0.87
2.27
vs Stronger (29)
0.97
1.79
1.07
1.29
0.87
2.27
vs Similar (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (ŁKS Łódź) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.9%
Under 1.5
11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
71.3%
Under 2.5
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
50.4%
Under 3.5
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.0%
No
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.4%
3-0
10.0%
2-1
8.4%
3-1
8.1%
4-0
7.2%
1-0
6.6%
1-1
6.4%
4-1
5.8%
ŁKS Łódź goals ↓
Podbeskidzie goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.1%
1.4%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
1
6.6%
6.4%
2.4%
0.6%
0.1%
2
10%
8.4%
3.4%
0.9%
0.2%
3
10.0%
8.1%
3.3%
0.9%
0.2%
4
7.2%
5.8%
2.4%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ŁKS Łódź goals (down), columns = Podbeskidzie goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Miedz Legnica
2.17
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.83
Arka Gdynia
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Warta Poznań
1.50
Pogoń Siedlce
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.33
Odra Opole
1.33
Nieciecza
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.83
ŁKS Łódź is 1.00 points better than Podbeskidzie in terms of average points per game (1.83 vs 0.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.83
Stal Mielec
1.83
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Miedz Legnica
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
ŁKS Łódź
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.50
Nieciecza
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.83
Unia Skierniewice
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.67
Ruch Chorzów
0.50
ŁKS Łódź is 0.33 goals better than Podbeskidzie in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.83
Chrobry Głogów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.83
ŁKS Łódź
0.83
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.33
Unia Skierniewice
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.67
Nieciecza
1.67
Podbeskidzie
1.67
Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.17
Polonia Bytom
2.50
ŁKS Łódź is 0.83 goals better than Podbeskidzie in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ŁKS Łódź or Draw
93.0%
Avg Implied -
79%
14%
7%
covers ŁKS Łódź + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ŁKS Łódź or Podbeskidzie
86.1%
Avg Implied -
79%
14%
7%
covers ŁKS Łódź + Podbeskidzie
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Podbeskidzie
20.9%
Avg Implied -
79%
14%
7%
covers Draw + Podbeskidzie
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 0.5
Over
94.4%
Under
5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 1.5
Over
78.3%
Under
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 2.5
Over
55.0%
Under
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 3.5
Over
32.7%
Under
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podbeskidzie over/under 0.5
Over
55.5%
Under
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podbeskidzie over/under 1.5
Over
19.5%
Under
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podbeskidzie over/under 2.5
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podbeskidzie over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to ŁKS Łódź, so a minus line means ŁKS Łódź give that many goals of a start and Podbeskidzie receive them. At -1, ŁKS Łódź must win by two or more to land; a one-goal ŁKS Łódź win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (ŁKS Łódź)
ŁKS Łódź -2
39.0%
Draw -2
21.2%
Podbeskidzie +2
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (ŁKS Łódź)
ŁKS Łódź -1
60.2%
Draw -1
18.9%
Podbeskidzie +1
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (ŁKS Łódź)
ŁKS Łódź +1
93.0%
Draw +1
4.9%
Podbeskidzie -1
2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (ŁKS Łódź)
ŁKS Łódź +2
97.9%
Draw +2
1.7%
Podbeskidzie -2
0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ŁKS Łódź
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.75
0.75
0.43
0.43
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.62
0.64
0.86
0.42
0.33
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Podbeskidzie) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Podbeskidzie
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
1.00
0.33
0.53
0.20
1.47
vs Stronger (29)
0.24
1.03
0.29
0.57
0.20
1.47
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (ŁKS Łódź) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podbeskidzie over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podbeskidzie over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podbeskidzie over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ŁKS Łódź
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.67
1.06
0.56
0.86
0.79
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.00
0.65
1.07
0.57
0.92
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Podbeskidzie) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Podbeskidzie
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.73
0.80
0.67
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (29)
0.72
0.76
0.79
0.71
0.67
0.80
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (ŁKS Łódź) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podbeskidzie over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podbeskidzie over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Podbeskidzie over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
ŁKS Łódź · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dani Ramirez28%
Stipe Jurić21%
Kay Tejan21%
Jedrzej Zajac17%
Husein Balić15%
Engjell Hoti14%
Artemijus Tutyškinas9%
Piotr Janczukowicz7%
Antoni Mlynarczyk6%
Pirulo5%
Rahil Mammadov0%
Riza Durmisi0%
Nacho Monsalve0%
Maciej Śliwa0%
Adam Marciniak0%
Kamil Dankowski0%
Dawid Arndt0%
Marcin Flis0%
Bartosz Szeliga0%
Levent Gülen0%
Anton Fase0%
Piotr Głowacki0%
Adrian Małachowski0%
Oskar Koprowski0%
Jakub Letniowski0%
Michał Mokrzycki0%
Adrien Louveau0%
Mieszko Lorenc0%
Aleksander Bobek0%
Thiago Ceijas0%
Jan Łabędzki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jakub Letniowski38%
Riza Durmisi36%
Adam Marciniak29%
Dawid Arndt29%
Adrien Louveau27%
Artemijus Tutyškinas27%
Oskar Koprowski25%
Pirulo24%
Michał Mokrzycki21%
Kay Tejan21%
Rahil Mammadov19%
Marcin Flis19%
Engjell Hoti17%
Nacho Monsalve17%
Levent Gülen17%
Jedrzej Zajac17%
Husein Balić15%
Dani Ramirez12%
Thiago Ceijas12%
Antoni Mlynarczyk12%
Aleksander Bobek12%
Piotr Janczukowicz11%
Kamil Dankowski10%
Bartosz Szeliga10%
Stipe Jurić5%
Piotr Głowacki4%
Maciej Śliwa0%
Anton Fase0%
Adrian Małachowski0%
Mieszko Lorenc0%
Jan Łabędzki0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Adrian Małachowski17%
Antoni Mlynarczyk12%
Kay Tejan10%
Riza Durmisi9%
Michał Mokrzycki7%
Kamil Dankowski7%
Dani Ramirez6%
Levent Gülen6%
Adrien Louveau5%
Piotr Głowacki4%
Piotr Janczukowicz4%
Bartosz Szeliga3%
Rahil Mammadov0%
Husein Balić0%
Nacho Monsalve0%
Maciej Śliwa0%
Adam Marciniak0%
Dawid Arndt0%
Marcin Flis0%
Pirulo0%
Stipe Jurić0%
Anton Fase0%
Oskar Koprowski0%
Jakub Letniowski0%
Mieszko Lorenc0%
Aleksander Bobek0%
Engjell Hoti0%
Thiago Ceijas0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Jan Łabędzki0%
Jedrzej Zajac0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Adrian Małachowski17%
Kay Tejan14%
Marcin Flis12%
Pirulo10%
Dani Ramirez9%
Husein Balić8%
Rahil Mammadov0%
Riza Durmisi0%
Nacho Monsalve0%
Maciej Śliwa0%
Adam Marciniak0%
Kamil Dankowski0%
Dawid Arndt0%
Bartosz Szeliga0%
Levent Gülen0%
Stipe Jurić0%
Anton Fase0%
Piotr Głowacki0%
Oskar Koprowski0%
Jakub Letniowski0%
Piotr Janczukowicz0%
Michał Mokrzycki0%
Adrien Louveau0%
Mieszko Lorenc0%
Aleksander Bobek0%
Engjell Hoti0%
Thiago Ceijas0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Jan Łabędzki0%
Antoni Mlynarczyk0%
Jedrzej Zajac0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
ŁKS Łódź's squad is €3m more valuable than Podbeskidzie's (€4m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
ŁKS Łódź's attack is €1m more valuable than Podbeskidzie's (€2m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (3)
€5m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
ŁKS Łódź and Podbeskidzie have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
ŁKS Łódź's defence is €1m more valuable than Podbeskidzie's (€2m vs €0m).
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
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Miedz Legnica
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Polonia Warszawa
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