In the upcoming match between ŁKS Łódź and Polonia Bytom, a recent-form storyline is that ŁKS Łódź is coming off a defeat, having lost to Chrobry Głogów 1-2 in their last outing. This setback, however, doesn't seem to have impacted their form at home, where they have a strong record, scoring an average of 1.54 goals and conceding 1.38 against opponents of similar strength. On the other hand, Polonia Bytom has struggled on the road, averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.92 conceded.
The model predicts a home win with a 51% probability, with a draw at 23% and an away win at 25%. The expected total number of goals is 3.4, with the most likely total being 3 goals. The most likely score is a 1-1 draw, occurring with a 10.1% probability. Notably, the model's selection for "Over 1.5" goals has a high probability of 86.6%, with a significant edge of 14%. The model's suggested picks include "Over 1.5" (86.6%), "Home win" (51%), "Away win" (25%), and "Draw" (23%).
Results analysis
The win extends the home side's run, with \u0141KS \u0141\u00f3d\u017a defeating Polonia Bytom 2-1. The actual result was a home win, matching the model's prediction. The model's selection, home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 51%. The suggested picks largely came in, with over 1.5 goals hit, having a pre-match probability of 86.6%. The model's call on over 1.5 goals was correct, as the final score was 2-1, exceeding the threshold.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
ŁKS Łódź win✓ Hit
51.2%
Avg Implied 54.8% · @ 1.66
Edge
-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.72
Betano
1.70
Dafabet
1.68
Unibet
1.68
Superbet
1.67
Draw✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied 25.5% · @ 3.57
Edge
-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.77
Dafabet
3.65
10Bet
3.65
Superbet
3.60
Betano
3.60
Polonia Bytom win✗ Miss
25.5%
Avg Implied 19.7% · @ 4.61
Edge
+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Pinnacle
4.84
Superbet
4.80
Betano
4.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
ŁKS Łódź
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.43
1.73
1.40
1.53
1.47
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.62
1.46
1.62
1.54
1.62
1.38
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.33
4.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Bytom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Polonia Bytom
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.53
1.87
1.27
2.00
1.80
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (23)
1.83
1.57
1.83
1.17
1.82
2.00
vs Weaker (4)
3.25
1.00
2.50
2.00
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (ŁKS Łódź) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.6%
@ 1.27+14.0%
Under 1.5
13.4%
@ 3.37-14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Under
Betfair
3.60
Pinnacle
3.53
Bet365
3.50
Unibet
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.6%
@ 1.88+17.3%
Under 2.5
33.4%
@ 1.84-17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.97
Bet365
1.95
Superbet
1.92
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.90
Under
Unibet
1.92
Pinnacle
1.87
Bet365
1.85
Betfair
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.9%
@ 3.19+15.9%
Under 3.5
55.1%
@ 1.30-15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.30
Superbet
3.25
Under
Unibet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.33
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.4%
@ 1.83+16.0%
No
33.6%
@ 1.86-16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.91
Superbet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
No
Unibet
1.97
Betfair
1.91
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Superbet
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.1%@ 6.51+3.3%
2-1 ✓
9.3%@ 7.43+3.3%
2-0
6.7%@ 7.33+0.6%
2-2
6.5%@ 14.50+3.5%
1-2
6.4%@ 13.85+3.2%
3-1
6.3%@ 12.53+2.8%
1-0
5.7%@ 6.33-1.4%
3-0
4.5%@ 12.24+0.9%
ŁKS Łódź goals ↓
Polonia Bytom goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
3.6%
3.2%
1.5%
0.5%
1
5.7%
10%
6.4%
3.0%
1.1%
2
6.7%
9.3%
6.5%
3.1%
1.1%
3
4.5%
6.3%
4.4%
2.1%
0.7%
4
2.3%
3.2%
2.3%
1.1%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = ŁKS Łódź goals (down), columns = Polonia Bytom goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Miedz Legnica
2.17
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.83
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Warta Poznań
1.50
Odra Opole
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.33
Nieciecza
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.83
ŁKS Łódź is 0.83 points better than Polonia Bytom in terms of average points per game (1.83 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.83
Stal Mielec
1.83
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Miedz Legnica
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
ŁKS Łódź
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.50
Nieciecza
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.83
Unia Skierniewice
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.67
Ruch Chorzów
0.50
ŁKS Łódź is 0.33 goals worse than Polonia Bytom in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.83
Chrobry Głogów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.83
ŁKS Łódź
0.83
Odra Opole
1.00
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.33
Unia Skierniewice
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.67
Podbeskidzie
1.67
Nieciecza
1.67
Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.17
Polonia Bytom
2.50
ŁKS Łódź is 1.67 goals better than Polonia Bytom in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 2.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
ŁKS Łódź
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.70
0.67
0.73
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.58
0.73
0.54
0.85
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Bytom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Polonia Bytom
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.47
1.13
0.33
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.96
0.52
1.17
0.33
0.73
0.73
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
0.25
1.50
0.50
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (ŁKS Łódź) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
ŁKS Łódź
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.73
1.07
0.67
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.04
0.73
1.08
0.69
1.00
0.77
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Bytom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Polonia Bytom
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.07
0.73
0.93
1.07
1.20
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.87
1.04
0.67
0.83
1.09
1.27
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.75
1.00
1.50
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (ŁKS Łódź) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ŁKS Łódź over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
86.6%
1.27
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.29
10Bet
1.28
+14.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
ŁKS Łódź · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dani Ramirez28%
Stipe Jurić21%
Kay Tejan21%
Jedrzej Zajac17%
Husein Balić15%
Engjell Hoti14%
Artemijus Tutyškinas9%
Piotr Janczukowicz7%
Antoni Mlynarczyk6%
Pirulo5%
Rahil Mammadov0%
Riza Durmisi0%
Nacho Monsalve0%
Maciej Śliwa0%
Adam Marciniak0%
Kamil Dankowski0%
Dawid Arndt0%
Marcin Flis0%
Bartosz Szeliga0%
Levent Gülen0%
Anton Fase0%
Piotr Głowacki0%
Adrian Małachowski0%
Oskar Koprowski0%
Jakub Letniowski0%
Michał Mokrzycki0%
Adrien Louveau0%
Mieszko Lorenc0%
Aleksander Bobek0%
Thiago Ceijas0%
Jan Łabędzki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jakub Letniowski38%
Riza Durmisi36%
Adam Marciniak29%
Dawid Arndt29%
Adrien Louveau27%
Artemijus Tutyškinas27%
Oskar Koprowski25%
Pirulo24%
Michał Mokrzycki21%
Kay Tejan21%
Rahil Mammadov19%
Marcin Flis19%
Engjell Hoti17%
Nacho Monsalve17%
Levent Gülen17%
Jedrzej Zajac17%
Husein Balić15%
Dani Ramirez12%
Thiago Ceijas12%
Antoni Mlynarczyk12%
Aleksander Bobek12%
Piotr Janczukowicz11%
Kamil Dankowski10%
Bartosz Szeliga10%
Stipe Jurić5%
Piotr Głowacki4%
Maciej Śliwa0%
Anton Fase0%
Adrian Małachowski0%
Mieszko Lorenc0%
Jan Łabędzki0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Adrian Małachowski17%
Antoni Mlynarczyk12%
Kay Tejan10%
Riza Durmisi9%
Michał Mokrzycki7%
Kamil Dankowski7%
Dani Ramirez6%
Levent Gülen6%
Adrien Louveau5%
Piotr Głowacki4%
Piotr Janczukowicz4%
Bartosz Szeliga3%
Rahil Mammadov0%
Husein Balić0%
Nacho Monsalve0%
Maciej Śliwa0%
Adam Marciniak0%
Dawid Arndt0%
Marcin Flis0%
Pirulo0%
Stipe Jurić0%
Anton Fase0%
Oskar Koprowski0%
Jakub Letniowski0%
Mieszko Lorenc0%
Aleksander Bobek0%
Engjell Hoti0%
Thiago Ceijas0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Jan Łabędzki0%
Jedrzej Zajac0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Adrian Małachowski17%
Kay Tejan14%
Marcin Flis12%
Pirulo10%
Dani Ramirez9%
Husein Balić8%
Rahil Mammadov0%
Riza Durmisi0%
Nacho Monsalve0%
Maciej Śliwa0%
Adam Marciniak0%
Kamil Dankowski0%
Dawid Arndt0%
Bartosz Szeliga0%
Levent Gülen0%
Stipe Jurić0%
Anton Fase0%
Piotr Głowacki0%
Oskar Koprowski0%
Jakub Letniowski0%
Piotr Janczukowicz0%
Michał Mokrzycki0%
Adrien Louveau0%
Mieszko Lorenc0%
Aleksander Bobek0%
Engjell Hoti0%
Thiago Ceijas0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Jan Łabędzki0%
Antoni Mlynarczyk0%
Jedrzej Zajac0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
ŁKS Łódź's squad is €1m more valuable than Polonia Bytom's (€4m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
ŁKS Łódź and Polonia Bytom have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (3)
€5m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
ŁKS Łódź and Polonia Bytom have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
ŁKS Łódź and Polonia Bytom have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
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Miedz Legnica
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Chrobry Głogów
Arka Gdynia
Polonia Warszawa
Warta Poznań
Pogoń Siedlce
Odra Opole
Stal Mielec
Nieciecza
Lechia Gdansk
Ruch Chorzów
Puszcza Niepołomice
Unia Skierniewice
Podbeskidzie
Stal Rzeszów