ŁKS Łódź vs Puszcza Niepołomice Result & Analysis

The model favours a home win, with a 43% chance for ŁKS Łódź, 28% for a draw and 29% for Puszcza Niepołomice. The expected total goals hover at 2.7, yet the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.4% probability. ŁKS Łódź, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages 2.07 goals scored and 1.36 conceded, while Puszcza Niepołomice, on the road, averages 1.36 goals scored and 1.73 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 83.8%, Over 2.5 cards at 82.0%, Over 1.5 total goals at 75.6% (hit), Under 3.5 total goals at 72.4% (hit), Under 11.5 corners at 72.3%, Under 5.5 cards at 71.2% and Over 21.5 fouls at 71.2%. Recent form shows ŁKS Łódź coming off a draw, while Puszcza Niepołomice arrives after a win. The match is expected to be competitive, but the odds tilt toward a home victory.

The upset came as ŁKS Łódź, the pre-match favourite with a 43% chance of victory, failed to deliver, while Puszcza Niepołomice seized a 0-3 away win. The model’s pick was wrong, yet its other selections proved accurate: Over 1.5 goals hit with a 75.6% probability, and Under 3.5 goals also hit at 72.4%. ŁKS had been coming off a draw, their last five results reading DWWLW, whereas Puszcza arrived after a win, their last five showing WLLWL. The final score of 0-3 confirms the away side’s dominance, overturning the predicted home advantage and the model’s expectation of a 2-goal total.