Kulykiv’s recent win streak and a 5-1 triumph over Ahrobiznes Volochysk give the model a clear edge for a home victory, reflected in the 68% probability for a win. The team’s average of three goals scored and one conceded at home against weaker opposition underpins this confidence. Probiy Horodenka, struggling on the road with an average of 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded against stronger teams, is seen as the weaker side, with only an 11% chance of triumph. The expected total of 2.9 goals suggests a moderately high-scoring affair, yet the most likely scoreline is 2-0 for Kulykiv, carrying a 12.7% probability. The model’s suggested picks reinforce the home advantage: Away under 3.5 goals (99.3%), Under 7.5 (99.1%), Under 6.5 (97.2%), Home +2 handicap (96.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (96.0%), Under 5.5 (92.8%), Home or Draw (89.0%), and Home +1 handicap (89.0%). The probabilities for the main outcomes are 68% home win, 21% draw, and 11% away win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kulykiv win
68.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka win
11.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kulykiv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
1.20
3.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (5)
2.20
1.20
3.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
0% (-32pp vs league)
This opponent (Probiy Horodenka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Probiy Horodenka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.30
1.00
1.40
0.73
1.20
vs Stronger (13)
1.08
1.31
0.86
1.29
1.33
1.33
vs Similar (17)
0.71
1.29
1.12
1.50
0.33
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Kulykiv) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.0%
Under 1.5
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.8%
Under 2.5
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.5%
Under 3.5
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
47.3%
No
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.8%
1-0
11.1%
1-1
9.9%
2-1
9.6%
3-0
9.0%
3-1
6.8%
0-0
6.5%
4-0
4.8%
Kulykiv goals ↓
Probiy Horodenka goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
3.3%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
1
11%
9.9%
3.4%
0.8%
0.2%
2
13%
9.6%
3.6%
0.9%
0.2%
3
9.0%
6.8%
2.5%
0.6%
0.1%
4
4.8%
3.6%
1.3%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kulykiv goals (down), columns = Probiy Horodenka goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
3.00
SK Poltava
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Kulykiv
2.00
Prykarpattia
1.40
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.40
Metal Kharkiv
1.40
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Nyva Ternopil
1.20
UCSA
1.20
Chernihiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.60
Polissya II
0.40
Probiy Horodenka
0.40
Kulykiv is 1.60 points better than Probiy Horodenka in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kulykiv
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.80
Prykarpattia
1.60
SK Poltava
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Polissya II
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Chernihiv
1.00
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Probiy Horodenka
0.80
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Kulykiv is 1.40 goals better than Probiy Horodenka in terms of goals scored per game (2.20 vs 0.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SK Poltava
0.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.20
Oleksandria
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Chernihiv
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.20
Kulykiv
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.40
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.60
Yarud Mariupol'
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Polissya II
1.80
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.80
Inhulets
1.80
Probiy Horodenka
2.40
Kulykiv is 1.20 goals better than Probiy Horodenka in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 2.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kulykiv or Draw
89.0%
Avg Implied -
68%
21%
11%
covers Kulykiv + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kulykiv or Probiy Horodenka
79.3%
Avg Implied -
68%
21%
11%
covers Kulykiv + Probiy Horodenka
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Probiy Horodenka
31.7%
Avg Implied -
68%
21%
11%
covers Draw + Probiy Horodenka
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kulykiv over/under 0.5
Over
88.1%
Under
11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kulykiv over/under 1.5
Over
62.7%
Under
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kulykiv over/under 2.5
Over
35.8%
Under
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kulykiv over/under 3.5
Over
16.6%
Under
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 0.5
Over
52.7%
Under
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 1.5
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 2.5
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 3.5
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kulykiv, so a minus line means Kulykiv give that many goals of a start and Probiy Horodenka receive them. At -1, Kulykiv must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kulykiv win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kulykiv)
Kulykiv -2
23.7%
Draw -2
21.0%
Probiy Horodenka +2
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kulykiv)
Kulykiv -1
44.8%
Draw -1
23.5%
Probiy Horodenka +1
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kulykiv)
Kulykiv +1
89.0%
Draw +1
7.7%
Probiy Horodenka -1
3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kulykiv)
Kulykiv +2
96.7%
Draw +2
2.6%
Probiy Horodenka -2
0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kulykiv
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.40
0.67
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.40
0.67
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Probiy Horodenka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Probiy Horodenka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.53
0.27
0.53
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.31
0.14
0.43
0.83
0.17
vs Similar (17)
0.29
0.71
0.38
0.62
0.22
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kulykiv) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kulykiv over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kulykiv over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kulykiv over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kulykiv
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
0.80
2.33
1.00
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
0.80
2.33
1.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Probiy Horodenka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Probiy Horodenka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.73
0.87
0.27
0.67
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
1.00
0.71
0.86
0.50
1.17
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.59
0.75
0.88
0.11
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Kulykiv) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kulykiv over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kulykiv over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kulykiv over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →