KuPS are the clear favorites, with a 59% chance of victory, 25% for a draw and 17% for a Lahti win. The model predicts an average of 2.7 goals, most likely a 2-goal total, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 11.9%. Home form shows KuPS scoring 1.86 and conceding 0.71 against weaker opposition, while Lahti, playing away against stronger teams, averages 2.0 goals for and 1.5 against. The suggested selections include Under 5.5 cards at 88.2%, Under 25.5 fouls at 83.6%, Under 11.5 corners at 76.2%, Under 4.5 cards at 76.1%, Over 1.5 at 75.7% (hit), Under 3.5 at 72.0% (hit) and Under 23.5 fouls at 71.4%. The match is expected to see KuPS win, with a 2-1 scoreline in the final result.
Results analysis
KuPS’ recent form, coming off a defeat, was a mixed bag of wins and losses, yet they kept the momentum alive against Lahti, who were on a two-game winning streak. The model’s favourite, a KuPS home win, was right on target as the final score was 2-1, confirming the predicted outcome. With a 59% probability, the home side’s victory was the correct pick. The model’s selections also hit: Over 1.5 goals, with a 75.7% probability, and Under 3.5 goals, at 72.0%, both matched the match’s 3-goal total. The most likely score of 1-1 fell short, but the overall predictions proved largely accurate.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
KuPS win✓ Hit
58.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lahti win✗ Miss
16.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
KuPS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
0.93
1.73
1.13
1.33
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (13)
1.46
1.00
1.67
1.50
1.29
0.57
vs Weaker (13)
1.69
0.69
1.86
0.71
1.50
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lahti
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.13
1.94
1.12
1.93
1.14
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.67
0.00
2.00
2.00
1.50
vs Similar (21)
1.95
1.10
1.92
1.00
2.00
1.22
vs Weaker (6)
2.17
1.00
2.67
1.33
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (KuPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.7%
Under 1.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.0%
Under 2.5
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.0%
Under 3.5
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.5%
No
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
1-0
11.4%
2-0
11.3%
2-1 ✓
9.8%
0-0
8.0%
3-0
6.8%
3-1
5.9%
0-1
4.9%
KuPS goals ↓
Lahti goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
4.9%
2.6%
0.7%
0.2%
1
11%
12%
4.7%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.8%
4.2%
1.2%
0.3%
3
6.8%
5.9%
2.5%
0.7%
0.2%
4
3.1%
2.7%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = KuPS goals (down), columns = Lahti goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
1.95
Inter Turku
1.91
HJK Helsinki
1.68
Gnistan
1.64
AC Oulu
1.55
VPS
1.50
Lahti
1.45
Turku PS
1.41
Ilves
1.14
SJK
0.86
FF Jaro
0.68
Mariehamn
0.64
KuPS is 0.50 points better than Lahti in terms of average points per game (1.95 vs 1.45).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KuPS
1.73
HJK Helsinki
1.64
Gnistan
1.64
Ilves
1.55
VPS
1.32
Inter Turku
1.32
Turku PS
1.27
Lahti
1.18
SJK
1.14
AC Oulu
1.14
FF Jaro
0.82
Mariehamn
0.77
KuPS is 0.55 goals better than Lahti in terms of goals scored per game (1.73 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter Turku
0.73
Lahti
0.86
VPS
1.00
KuPS
1.05
Turku PS
1.05
AC Oulu
1.14
HJK Helsinki
1.23
Gnistan
1.32
SJK
1.50
Ilves
1.68
Mariehamn
1.95
FF Jaro
2.00
KuPS is 0.18 goals worse than Lahti in terms of goals conceded per game (1.05 vs 0.86).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Inter Turku
58%
KuPS
57%
Lahti
56%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
50%
Turku PS
50%
Ilves
49%
VPS
48%
AC Oulu
48%
FF Jaro
47%
Mariehamn
45%
Gnistan
44%
KuPS is 1.1 percentage points better than Lahti in terms of average possession (57% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
KuPS
For 4.3 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.6 · Against 1.1 · Total 1.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 9.3 · Total 19.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lahti
For 4.4 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 13.0 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
KuPS
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.4
10.3
1.6
1.5
1.7
19.1
18.7
19.5
vs Stronger (6)
8.8
8.7
9.0
2.8
2.7
3.0
19.8
17.7
22.0
vs Similar (20)
10.8
9.7
12.5
1.4
2.0
0.8
17.6
18.3
16.5
vs Weaker (24)
9.7
9.7
9.8
1.3
0.5
1.9
20.2
20.3
20.1
% over line
44%
42%
47%
20%
21%
19%
26%
25%
27%
% under line
56%
58%
53%
80%
79%
81%
74%
75%
73%
This opponent (Lahti) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lahti
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.2
9.5
3.0
0.5
0.7
0.2
24.8
25.0
24.0
vs Stronger (6)
13.0
13.0
-
0.5
1.5
0.0
25.0
25.0
-
vs Similar (35)
7.0
8.3
3.0
0.6
0.8
0.3
24.8
25.0
24.0
vs Weaker (9)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
40%
50%
0%
8%
12%
4%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
60%
50%
100%
92%
88%
96%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (KuPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
12.0
Turku PS
11.2
SJK
10.6
Inter Turku
10.5
Mariehamn
10.5
Ilves
10.4
FF Jaro
10.4
VPS
10.2
HJK Helsinki
10.1
Lahti
9.9
AC Oulu
9.9
KuPS
9.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Turku PS
6.6
Lahti
4.8
Mariehamn
4.1
Gnistan
4.0
SJK
3.9
AC Oulu
3.9
Ilves
3.9
Inter Turku
3.9
VPS
3.7
FF Jaro
3.5
KuPS
3.5
HJK Helsinki
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Turku PS
30.6
SJK
24.1
Ilves
23.9
Lahti
23.6
Inter Turku
23.6
Mariehamn
23.3
VPS
22.6
KuPS
22.4
AC Oulu
22.3
Gnistan
21.7
HJK Helsinki
21.0
FF Jaro
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
46.6%
Under 9.5
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
42.1%
Under 3.5
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
44.5%
Under 21.5
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
KuPS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.43
0.67
0.60
0.40
0.27
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.38
0.50
0.83
0.43
0.00
vs Weaker (13)
0.69
0.31
0.86
0.14
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lahti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.53
1.12
0.44
0.86
0.64
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.14
0.57
1.17
0.42
1.11
0.78
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.33
1.33
0.67
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (KuPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
KuPS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KuPS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KuPS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
KuPS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.50
1.07
0.53
0.93
0.47
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.62
1.17
0.67
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (13)
1.00
0.38
1.00
0.57
1.00
0.17
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Lahti) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lahti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.60
0.81
0.69
1.07
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.52
0.75
0.58
0.89
0.44
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (KuPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
KuPS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KuPS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KuPS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lahti over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
KuPS
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jaime Moreno83%
Bob Nii Armah43%
P. Pennanen29%
Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba25%
Gustav Engvall22%
Otto Ruoppi12%
V. Gasc11%
Kasim Adams0%
Johannes Kreidl0%
Clinton Antwi0%
Arttu Heinonen0%
S. Savolainen0%
S. Heiskanen0%
T. Hämäläinen0%
Arttu Lötjönen0%
Calvin Kabuye0%
N. Kujasalo0%
A. Puukko0%
Brahima Magassa0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
V. Gasc33%
Arttu Lötjönen25%
A. Puukko25%
Jaime Moreno17%
S. Heiskanen17%
Kasim Adams14%
Clinton Antwi11%
Johannes Kreidl0%
Gustav Engvall0%
P. Pennanen0%
Arttu Heinonen0%
S. Savolainen0%
T. Hämäläinen0%
Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba0%
Otto Ruoppi0%
Calvin Kabuye0%
N. Kujasalo0%
Bob Nii Armah0%
Brahima Magassa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
A. Puukko25%
P. Pennanen14%
S. Savolainen14%
Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba12%
Otto Ruoppi12%
Gustav Engvall11%
Clinton Antwi11%
Kasim Adams0%
Johannes Kreidl0%
Jaime Moreno0%
Arttu Heinonen0%
S. Heiskanen0%
T. Hämäläinen0%
Arttu Lötjönen0%
V. Gasc0%
Calvin Kabuye0%
N. Kujasalo0%
Bob Nii Armah0%
Brahima Magassa0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jaime Moreno67%
Bob Nii Armah57%
Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba12%
Gustav Engvall11%
V. Gasc11%
Kasim Adams0%
Johannes Kreidl0%
Clinton Antwi0%
P. Pennanen0%
Arttu Heinonen0%
S. Savolainen0%
S. Heiskanen0%
T. Hämäläinen0%
Arttu Lötjönen0%
Otto Ruoppi0%
Calvin Kabuye0%
N. Kujasalo0%
A. Puukko0%
Brahima Magassa0%
Lahti
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Martim Ferreira33%
Neemias Barbosa33%
A. Lindholm20%
Neemias Barbosa20%
Tòfol Montiel17%
Otso Koskinen14%
M. Sarr12%
Yohan Cassubie11%
R. Sans0%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
José Müller0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joel Lehtonen33%
R. Yapi33%
Martim Ferreira33%
M. Sarr25%
R. Sans22%
Yohan Cassubie22%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas20%
Tòfol Montiel17%
Osku Maukonen11%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
A. Lindholm0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
José Müller0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tòfol Montiel33%
R. Sans22%
Yohan Cassubie22%
Martim Ferreira17%
Erik Andersson0%
M. Sarr0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Topias Inkinen0%
A. Lindholm0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
José Müller0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Topias Inkinen33%
Tòfol Montiel17%
M. Sarr12%
Yohan Cassubie11%
R. Sans0%
Erik Andersson0%
V. Vehkonen0%
Armend Kabashi0%
Joel Lehtonen0%
R. Yapi0%
Otso Koskinen0%
D. Heikkinen0%
Martim Ferreira0%
A. Lindholm0%
Osku Maukonen0%
Amir Belabid0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Neemias Barbosa0%
Nicolas Gianini Dantas0%
José Müller0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
TP (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
KuPS's squad is €5m more valuable than Lahti's (€7m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
KuPS's attack is €1m more valuable than Lahti's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
TP (4)
€0m
KuPS's midfield is €2m more valuable than Lahti's (€3m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
TP (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
KuPS's defence is €2m more valuable than Lahti's (€3m vs €1m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →