KuPS is the clear favourite with a 77% chance of winning at home, thanks in part to Mariehamn's weakness away from home. The model predicts a high-scoring match with 3.4 expected goals, and the most likely total goals is 3. The most likely score is 2-0 to KuPS, with a 12% probability. KuPS has a strong home form, scoring 2.1 goals on average while conceding 1.1, particularly against weaker opponents. Mariehamn, on the other hand, struggles away from home, scoring 0.77 goals on average while conceding 2.77, especially against stronger opponents. The model suggests an Over 1.5 goals selection with 85.8% probability, a Home win selection with 77.1% probability, and an Under 3.5 cards selection with 72.2% probability. KuPS has a 77% chance of winning, a 15% chance of drawing, and a 7% chance of losing. The suggested picks include an Over 1.5 goals selection (85.8%), a Home win selection (77.1%), and an Under 3.5 cards selection (72.2%).
Results analysis
KuPS, coming off a defeat, fell to Mariehamn in a 2-4 loss, extending the home side’s recent slump. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was assigned a 77 % probability, but the model was wrong. The model’s selections were mixed: Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.3 %) missed, Away under 3.5 goals (99.3 %) missed, Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.8 %) hit, Home +2 handicap (97.8 %) missed, Under 7.5 (97.7 %) hit, Away under 2.5 goals (96.0 %) missed, Away under 1.5 HT goals (95.8 %) missed, and Away under 1.5 2H goals (94.9 %) hit. The final score of 2-4 confirmed the upset.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
KuPS win✗ Miss
77.1%
Avg Implied 74.8% · @ 1.24
Edge
+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.28
Dafabet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
SBO
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Draw✗ Miss
15.4%
Avg Implied 15.6% · @ 5.95
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
6.65
Dafabet
6.40
Marathonbet
6.15
1xBet
6.15
Superbet
6.10
Mariehamn win✓ Hit
7.4%
Avg Implied 9.6% · @ 9.65
Edge
-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
13.00
Marathonbet
10.50
1xBet
10.50
Betfair
10.00
Betano
10.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
KuPS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.97
1.43
1.07
1.50
0.88
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (11)
1.73
1.27
1.33
1.50
2.20
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
1.44
0.62
1.71
0.57
1.22
0.67
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mariehamn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.67
1.00
1.33
1.07
2.00
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
1.75
1.22
1.33
0.14
2.29
vs Similar (14)
1.36
1.57
0.67
1.33
1.88
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (KuPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.9%
@ 1.10+1.5%
Under 1.5
14.1%
@ 5.97-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.13
Betano
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Under
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Pinnacle
6.37
888Sport
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.8%
@ 1.38-1.4%
Under 2.5
34.2%
@ 2.83+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.42
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
3.04
888Sport
2.90
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
Bet365
2.88
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.9%
@ 2.00-3.0%
Under 3.5
56.1%
@ 1.77+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.07
Pinnacle
2.03
SBO
2.03
Betano
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.85
SBO
1.81
Betfair
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.4%
@ 1.78-2.9%
No
50.6%
@ 1.95+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.83
Betano
1.82
Betfair
1.80
Bet365
1.80
No
888Sport
2.05
William Hil
2.05
BetVictor
2.00
1xBet
1.97
Bet365
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.8%@ 6.99+5.5%
3-0
10.4%@ 7.64+4.6%
2-1
8.8%@ 8.21+3.4%
1-0
8.3%@ 8.79+3.2%
3-1
7.8%@ 9.16+2.9%
1-1
7.3%@ 10.91+3.2%
4-0
6.9%@ 10.91+2.8%
4-1
5.1%@ 12.79+1.7%
KuPS goals ↓
Mariehamn goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.0%
1.8%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
1
8.3%
7.3%
2.5%
0.6%
0.1%
2
12%
8.8%
3.3%
0.8%
0.2%
3
10%
7.8%
2.9%
0.7%
0.1%
4
6.9%
5.1%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = KuPS goals (down), columns = Mariehamn goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
1.95
Inter Turku
1.91
HJK Helsinki
1.68
Gnistan
1.64
AC Oulu
1.55
VPS
1.50
Lahti
1.45
Turku PS
1.41
Ilves
1.14
SJK
0.86
FF Jaro
0.68
Mariehamn
0.64
KuPS is 1.32 points better than Mariehamn in terms of average points per game (1.95 vs 0.64).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KuPS
1.73
HJK Helsinki
1.64
Gnistan
1.64
Ilves
1.55
VPS
1.32
Inter Turku
1.32
Turku PS
1.27
Lahti
1.18
SJK
1.14
AC Oulu
1.14
FF Jaro
0.82
Mariehamn
0.77
KuPS is 0.95 goals better than Mariehamn in terms of goals scored per game (1.73 vs 0.77).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter Turku
0.73
Lahti
0.86
VPS
1.00
KuPS
1.05
Turku PS
1.05
AC Oulu
1.14
HJK Helsinki
1.23
Gnistan
1.32
SJK
1.50
Ilves
1.68
Mariehamn
1.95
FF Jaro
2.00
KuPS is 0.91 goals better than Mariehamn in terms of goals conceded per game (1.05 vs 1.95).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Inter Turku
58%
KuPS
57%
Lahti
56%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
50%
Turku PS
50%
Ilves
49%
VPS
48%
AC Oulu
48%
FF Jaro
47%
Mariehamn
45%
Gnistan
44%
KuPS is 12.8 percentage points better than Mariehamn in terms of average possession (57% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
KuPS
For 5.3 · Against 2.6 · Total 7.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 0.7 · Total 2.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 11.4 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mariehamn
For 4.4 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 9.3 · Total 20.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
KuPS
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
8.8
9.9
1.3
1.2
1.4
20.2
20.8
19.6
vs Stronger (5)
8.8
8.7
9.0
2.8
2.7
3.0
19.6
17.7
22.5
vs Similar (22)
9.3
9.2
9.5
1.1
1.4
0.8
19.0
21.7
16.3
vs Weaker (23)
9.8
8.5
10.7
1.2
0.7
1.6
22.0
22.0
22.0
% over line
41%
31%
50%
14%
12%
15%
41%
46%
36%
% under line
59%
69%
50%
86%
88%
85%
59%
54%
64%
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mariehamn
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
11.2
9.3
1.4
1.8
1.0
20.3
20.6
19.8
vs Stronger (27)
9.5
10.0
9.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
19.9
20.0
19.8
vs Similar (23)
11.0
11.8
9.6
2.1
3.2
1.2
20.5
20.9
19.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
68%
77%
56%
24%
32%
16%
52%
50%
56%
% under line
32%
23%
44%
76%
68%
84%
48%
50%
44%
This opponent (KuPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
11.5
Inter Turku
10.7
Mariehamn
10.3
SJK
10.1
Ilves
10.1
AC Oulu
10.1
FF Jaro
10.1
HJK Helsinki
9.9
KuPS
9.9
VPS
9.8
Lahti
9.8
Turku PS
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lahti
4.5
Turku PS
4.3
Gnistan
4.0
AC Oulu
3.9
SJK
3.9
Mariehamn
3.9
Ilves
3.8
Inter Turku
3.8
VPS
3.6
FF Jaro
3.3
KuPS
3.2
HJK Helsinki
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SJK
23.8
Inter Turku
23.3
Ilves
23.2
Lahti
23.1
AC Oulu
22.7
Gnistan
22.5
VPS
22.4
KuPS
22.0
Mariehamn
21.9
Turku PS
21.8
HJK Helsinki
20.5
FF Jaro
18.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
36.7%
@ 1.53-23.5%
Under 9.5
63.3%
@ 2.31+23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.57
Superbet
1.55
Betano
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Under
Betano
2.40
Unibet
2.38
Pinnacle
2.30
Superbet
2.30
Marathonbet
2.27
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
27.8%
@ 1.88-21.1%
Under 3.5
72.2%
@ 1.80+21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.88
Under
Superbet
1.80
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
37.7%
Under 21.5
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
KuPS or Draw✗ Miss
92.6%
Avg Implied 89.7% · @ 1.05
Edge
+2.9%
77%
15%
7%
covers KuPS + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
888Sport
1.06
William Hil
1.06
KuPS or Mariehamn✓ Hit
84.6%
Avg Implied 85.2% · @ 1.10
Edge
-0.6%
77%
15%
7%
covers KuPS + Mariehamn
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Draw or Mariehamn✓ Hit
22.9%
Avg Implied 25.1% · @ 3.74
Edge
-2.2%
77%
15%
7%
covers Draw + Mariehamn
Best 5 market prices
Betano
4.15
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.88
1xBet
3.88
BetVictor
3.80
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
KuPS over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
92.9%
@ 1.04+2.2%
Under
7.1%
@ 10.15-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Under
888Sport
11.00
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Superbet
9.40
KuPS over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
74.1%
@ 1.26+0.3%
Under
25.9%
@ 3.54-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
Under
Betfair
3.75
Pinnacle
3.72
10Bet
3.70
BetVictor
3.60
Marathonbet
3.58
KuPS over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
49.3%
@ 1.84-1.3%
Under
50.7%
@ 1.88+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Unibet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.86
888Sport
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Under
10Bet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.91
Betfair
1.91
KuPS over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
27.4%
@ 3.14-2.2%
Under
72.6%
@ 1.32+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.41
Unibet
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
BetVictor
3.20
Under
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Mariehamn over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
52.5%
@ 1.68-2.8%
Under
47.5%
@ 2.08+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.72
Unibet
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Under
Pinnacle
2.21
888Sport
2.20
BetVictor
2.15
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Mariehamn over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
17.1%
@ 4.36-4.2%
Under
82.9%
@ 1.18+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
Unibet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Under
Pinnacle
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Betano
1.20
Mariehamn over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
4.0%
@ 12.44-3.7%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.03+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
888Sport
13.00
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Bet365
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Mariehamn over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
0.7%
@ 44.00-99.3%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
51.00
Superbet
37.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to KuPS, so a minus line means KuPS give that many goals of a start and Mariehamn receive them. At -1, KuPS must win by two or more to land; a one-goal KuPS win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (KuPS)Actual: Mariehamn
KuPS -2
35.0%
@ 2.55-0.1%
Draw -2
21.7%
@ 4.00-0.6%
Mariehamn +2
43.3%
@ 2.11+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
2.62
Betfair
2.60
Superbet
2.60
Unibet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.49
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.15
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
4.00
10Bet
3.80
Away
10Bet
2.25
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Handicap -1 (KuPS)Actual: Mariehamn
KuPS -1
56.7%
@ 1.66+2.3%
Draw -1
20.4%
@ 4.03-1.9%
Mariehamn +1
22.9%
@ 3.87-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.73
Marathonbet
1.69
Superbet
1.67
Unibet
1.66
Betfair
1.62
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.05
10Bet
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Away
10Bet
4.33
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.88
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.65
Handicap +1 (KuPS)Actual: Mariehamn
KuPS +1
92.6%
@ 1.07+4.5%
Draw +1
5.3%
@ 12.00-2.6%
Mariehamn -1
2.2%
@ 23.00-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.07
Draw
Bet365
12.00
Away
Bet365
23.00
Handicap +2 (KuPS)Actual: Draw
KuPS +2
97.8%
Draw +2
1.7%
Mariehamn -2
0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
KuPS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
0.93
0.43
0.69
0.44
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (11)
1.00
0.27
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.20
vs Weaker (16)
0.81
0.44
1.00
0.29
0.67
0.56
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mariehamn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.73
0.53
0.60
0.33
0.87
vs Stronger (16)
0.38
0.81
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.64
0.33
0.50
0.62
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (KuPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.4%
@ 1.20+2.3%
Under 0.5
20.6%
@ 4.04-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Under
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.15
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.98
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
41.0%
@ 2.02-5.2%
Under 1.5
59.0%
@ 1.73+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.11
Pinnacle
2.10
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.04
Under
Superbet
1.77
10Bet
1.77
William Hil
1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
SBO
1.74
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
18.6%
@ 4.20-3.5%
Under 2.5
81.4%
@ 1.19+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.50
Unibet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Under
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.18
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
KuPS over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
71.5%
@ 1.34+2.7%
Under
28.5%
@ 2.96-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Unibet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
10Bet
1.30
Under
10Bet
3.20
Superbet
3.00
1xBet
2.90
Betano
2.87
Unibet
2.85
KuPS over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
31.6%
@ 2.65-3.6%
Under
68.4%
@ 1.44+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.82
Betano
2.70
Marathonbet
2.68
1xBet
2.60
Superbet
2.57
Under
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.43
1xBet
1.43
Betano
1.42
KuPS over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.4%
@ 6.04-2.9%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.09+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.40
Betano
6.00
Superbet
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.07
Mariehamn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
24.8%
@ 3.01-6.0%
Under
75.2%
@ 1.34+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Betano
3.05
Unibet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.93
Under
1xBet
1.39
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
Mariehamn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
4.2%
@ 11.58-3.9%
Under
95.8%
@ 1.02+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
13.00
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Mariehamn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.7%
@ 50.00-99.3%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
50.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
KuPS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.50
0.64
0.81
0.44
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
1.00
0.33
1.17
1.20
0.80
vs Weaker (16)
0.62
0.19
0.71
0.29
0.56
0.11
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Mariehamn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mariehamn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.93
0.47
0.73
0.73
1.13
vs Stronger (16)
0.38
0.94
0.56
0.67
0.14
1.29
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.93
0.33
0.83
1.25
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (KuPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
86.2%
@ 1.12+2.9%
Under 0.5
13.8%
@ 5.59-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Under
1xBet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
Betano
5.80
Marathonbet
5.65
Superbet
5.55
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
54.3%
@ 1.62-3.2%
Under 1.5
45.7%
@ 2.19+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Unibet
1.63
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.60
Under
Betano
2.32
Marathonbet
2.23
1xBet
2.23
Bet365
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
23.8%
@ 2.87-8.6%
Under 2.5
76.2%
@ 1.37+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
3.00
Bet365
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Superbet
2.82
Marathonbet
2.77
Under
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
KuPS over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
80.0%
@ 1.22+4.0%
Under
20.0%
@ 3.87-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.23
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Under
Betano
3.95
1xBet
3.90
Superbet
3.75
KuPS over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
43.0%
@ 2.04-2.3%
Under
57.0%
@ 1.70+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.10
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.02
Betano
2.00
Under
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.68
Superbet
1.66
KuPS over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.4%
@ 4.18-7.8%
Under
85.6%
@ 1.19+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.35
1xBet
4.30
Betano
3.90
Under
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Mariehamn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
32.4%
@ 2.40-6.2%
Under
67.6%
@ 1.51+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.47
Marathonbet
2.43
Superbet
2.40
1xBet
2.32
Under
1xBet
1.54
Superbet
1.51
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.48
Mariehamn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.1%
@ 8.32-6.0%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.04+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.30
1xBet
8.30
Superbet
8.10
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
Mariehamn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 32.00-98.8%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
32.00
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 7.5
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
96.0%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
+3.7%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
-
-
+3.9%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
94.9%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
-
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.3%
1.04
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
92.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
92.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
888Sport
1.06
William Hil
1.06
+2.9%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
92.6%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+4.5%
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
87.6%
1.09
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.07
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
87.2%
1.11
Betano
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Pinnacle
1.12
Superbet
1.12
+3.2%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
86.2%
1.12
888Sport
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
85.9%
1.10
Pinnacle
1.13
Betano
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
85.6%
1.19
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
-
-
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
84.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.14
888Sport
1.13
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.12
1xBet
1.10
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
82.9%
1.18
Pinnacle
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Betano
1.20
+4.2%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
81.4%
1.19
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.18
+3.5%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 2H goals
80.0%
1.22
Superbet
1.23
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.21
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
79.4%
1.20
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home win
77.1%
1.24
Pinnacle
1.28
Dafabet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
SBO
1.25
888Sport
1.25
+2.3%
✗ Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.2%
1.37
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
+8.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 0.5 HT goals
75.2%
1.34
1xBet
1.39
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
+6.0%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
74.6%
1.30
Betano
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.32
BetVictor
1.30
+3.5%
✗ Miss
Home over 1.5 goals
74.1%
1.26
1xBet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
72.6%
1.32
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 HT goals
71.5%
1.34
Betano
1.38
Unibet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
10Bet
1.30
+2.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
KuPS
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jaime Moreno83%
Bob Nii Armah43%
P. Pennanen29%
Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba25%
Gustav Engvall22%
Otto Ruoppi12%
V. Gasc11%
Kasim Adams0%
Johannes Kreidl0%
Clinton Antwi0%
Arttu Heinonen0%
S. Savolainen0%
S. Heiskanen0%
T. Hämäläinen0%
Arttu Lötjönen0%
Calvin Kabuye0%
N. Kujasalo0%
A. Puukko0%
Brahima Magassa0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
V. Gasc33%
Arttu Lötjönen25%
A. Puukko25%
Jaime Moreno17%
S. Heiskanen17%
Kasim Adams14%
Clinton Antwi11%
Johannes Kreidl0%
Gustav Engvall0%
P. Pennanen0%
Arttu Heinonen0%
S. Savolainen0%
T. Hämäläinen0%
Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba0%
Otto Ruoppi0%
Calvin Kabuye0%
N. Kujasalo0%
Bob Nii Armah0%
Brahima Magassa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
A. Puukko25%
P. Pennanen14%
S. Savolainen14%
Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba12%
Otto Ruoppi12%
Gustav Engvall11%
Clinton Antwi11%
Kasim Adams0%
Johannes Kreidl0%
Jaime Moreno0%
Arttu Heinonen0%
S. Heiskanen0%
T. Hämäläinen0%
Arttu Lötjönen0%
V. Gasc0%
Calvin Kabuye0%
N. Kujasalo0%
Bob Nii Armah0%
Brahima Magassa0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jaime Moreno67%
Bob Nii Armah57%
Joslyn Luyeye-Lutumba12%
Gustav Engvall11%
V. Gasc11%
Kasim Adams0%
Johannes Kreidl0%
Clinton Antwi0%
P. Pennanen0%
Arttu Heinonen0%
S. Savolainen0%
S. Heiskanen0%
T. Hämäläinen0%
Arttu Lötjönen0%
Otto Ruoppi0%
Calvin Kabuye0%
N. Kujasalo0%
A. Puukko0%
Brahima Magassa0%
Mariehamn
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sebastian Dahlström33%
A. Larsson29%
M. Hyvönen17%
Anttoni Huttunen14%
E. Patut10%
Noah Nurmi0%
J. van der Heyden0%
M. Riikonen0%
J. Nissinen0%
Yeboah Amankwah0%
Pontus Lindgren0%
Nikolaos Dosis0%
Tuomas Koivisto0%
A. Stroud0%
Leo Andersson0%
A. Soiniemi0%
K. Lund0%
Luke Pearce0%
Samson Ngulube0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sebastian Dahlström33%
Pontus Lindgren33%
E. Patut30%
J. Nissinen29%
A. Soiniemi25%
Luke Pearce20%
Nikolaos Dosis17%
Tuomas Koivisto17%
Noah Nurmi11%
J. van der Heyden0%
M. Riikonen0%
Anttoni Huttunen0%
A. Larsson0%
Yeboah Amankwah0%
M. Hyvönen0%
A. Stroud0%
Leo Andersson0%
K. Lund0%
Samson Ngulube0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Yeboah Amankwah20%
Luke Pearce20%
Tuomas Koivisto17%
A. Stroud14%
E. Patut10%
Noah Nurmi0%
J. van der Heyden0%
M. Riikonen0%
J. Nissinen0%
Sebastian Dahlström0%
Anttoni Huttunen0%
A. Larsson0%
Pontus Lindgren0%
Nikolaos Dosis0%
M. Hyvönen0%
Leo Andersson0%
A. Soiniemi0%
K. Lund0%
Samson Ngulube0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Larsson29%
E. Patut20%
Tuomas Koivisto17%
A. Stroud14%
Noah Nurmi0%
J. van der Heyden0%
M. Riikonen0%
J. Nissinen0%
Sebastian Dahlström0%
Anttoni Huttunen0%
Yeboah Amankwah0%
Pontus Lindgren0%
Nikolaos Dosis0%
M. Hyvönen0%
Leo Andersson0%
A. Soiniemi0%
K. Lund0%
Luke Pearce0%
Samson Ngulube0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
TP (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
KuPS's squad is €5m more valuable than Mariehamn's (€7m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
KuPS's attack is €1m more valuable than Mariehamn's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
TP (4)
€0m
KuPS's midfield is €2m more valuable than Mariehamn's (€3m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
TP (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
KuPS's defence is €2m more valuable than Mariehamn's (€3m vs €1m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Inter Turku
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
AC Oulu
VPS
Lahti
Turku PS
Ilves
SJK
FF Jaro