KuPS, the home side, is heavily favored to win against Turku PS, with a 71% probability of victory. This is largely due to KuPS's strong home form, having scored an average of one goal and conceded 1.5 goals per game at home against opponents of similar strength. Turku PS, on the other hand, has struggled away from home, with a 11% chance of winning.
The expected total number of goals is 3.3, with a most likely total of 3 goals. The most likely score is 2-0, with a probability of 11.2%. KuPS has shown resilience at home, while Turku PS has struggled to score away from home.
The model's selection is the home win, with a 71.2% probability. Other suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals, with an 84.4% probability and a 7% edge, and Under 21.5 fouls, with a 70.4% probability. The home side has a 71% chance of winning, a 18% chance of drawing, and an 11% chance of losing. The model's suggested picks have the following probabilities: Home win (71.2%), Over 1.5 goals (84.4%), Under 3.5 cards (74.1%), Under 9.5 corners (74.0%), and Under 21.5 fouls (70.4%).
The draw between KuPS and Turku PS extends their recent run of consecutive draws, following a 1-1 scoreline. This result was a major upset, as the home team's recent form suggested they were due for a win. However, the pre-match favourite, a home win, did not come through, with the model's selection proving incorrect. The model had predicted a home win with a 71% probability. Meanwhile, the model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 84.4%, while the other suggested pick, Home win, missed with a probability of 71.2%. The most likely total goals was 3, with a 22% probability, and the most likely score was 2-0 or 2-1, with probabilities of 11.2% and 9.5% respectively.
KuPS| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 0.87 | 1.47 | 1.00 | 1.47 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.25 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (11) | 1.64 | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.33 | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 1.40 | 0.60 | 1.71 | 0.57 | 1.12 | 0.62 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
Turku PS| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.53 | 1.10 | 2.07 | 0.87 | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.33 | 1.17 | 1.85 | 1.00 | 0.73 | 1.36 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 2.33 | 0.83 | 3.50 | 0.00 | 1.75 | 1.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
| Turku PS goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 8.5% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 11% | 9.5% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 9.0% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 5.4% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
KuPS
Turku PS
KuPS| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.6 | 8.9 | 10.3 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 20.0 | 20.8 | 19.3 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 8.8 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 19.8 | 17.7 | 22.0 |
| vs Similar (21) | 9.7 | 9.1 | 10.4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 18.3 | 21.4 | 14.0 |
| vs Weaker (23) | 10.0 | 8.5 | 10.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 21.9 | 22.0 | 21.9 |
| % over line | 41% | 29% | 53% | 18% | 20% | 16% | 34% | 43% | 27% |
| % under line | 59% | 71% | 47% | 82% | 80% | 84% | 66% | 57% | 73% |
Turku PS| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.4 | 9.8 | 7.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 21.8 | 25.2 | 19.9 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (32) | 8.2 | 10.3 | 7.2 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 21.2 | 25.7 | 19.0 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 9.0 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 24.5 | 24.0 | 25.0 |
| % over line | 45% | 50% | 43% | 14% | 12% | 16% | 64% | 75% | 57% |
| % under line | 55% | 50% | 57% | 86% | 88% | 84% | 36% | 25% | 43% |
KuPS| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.40 | 0.87 | 0.47 | 0.60 | 0.33 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.25 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (11) | 0.91 | 0.18 | 0.83 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 0.73 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.29 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+38pp vs league) | |||||
Turku PS| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.53 | 0.93 | 0.47 | 0.33 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.85 | 0.54 | 0.27 | 0.55 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 0.83 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+32pp vs league) | |||||
KuPS| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.47 | 0.60 | 0.53 | 0.87 | 0.40 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (11) | 0.73 | 0.82 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| vs Weaker (15) | 0.67 | 0.20 | 0.71 | 0.29 | 0.62 | 0.12 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Turku PS| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.57 | 1.13 | 0.40 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.75 | 0.62 | 1.00 | 0.46 | 0.45 | 0.82 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.50 | 0.33 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 1.25 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 94.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 91.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 cards | 85.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 84.4% | 1.20 | 1.23 | 1.23 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.20 | +7.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 23.5 fouls | 82.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home win | 71.2% | 1.46 | 1.50 | 1.49 | 1.48 | 1.47 | 1.47 | +7.9% | ✗ Miss |
| Under 3.5 cards | 70.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06/26 | A | 1-2 |
KuPS| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 28/07/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 25/07/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 18/07/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 27/06/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 23/06/26 | H | 4-3 | |
| 17/06/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 13/06/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 10/06/26 | H | 0-0 |
Turku PS| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 26/07/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 20/07/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 11/07/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 04/07/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 27/06/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 23/06/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 17/06/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 13/06/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 30/05/26 | H | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | KuPS | 22 | 43 | 55% | 2.0 | 38 | 23 | +15 | 2.8 | 82% | 45% | 27% | 8.1 | 33% | 1.9 | 11% | 19.9 | 44% | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 57% |
| 2 | Inter Turku | 22 | 42 | 50% | 1.9 | 29 | 16 | +13 | 2.0 | 64% | 32% | 18% | 10.7 | 67% | 2.3 | 14% | 19.7 | 57% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 58% |
| 3 | HJK Helsinki | 22 | 37 | 50% | 1.7 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 2.9 | 73% | 59% | 27% | 7.0 | 14% | 3.0 | 43% | 18.4 | 43% | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 55% |
| 4 | Gnistan | 22 | 36 | 45% | 1.6 | 36 | 29 | +7 | 3.0 | 82% | 45% | 32% | 10.1 | 57% | 3.6 | 50% | 24.2 | 71% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 44% |
| 5 | AC Oulu | 22 | 34 | 45% | 1.5 | 25 | 25 | +0 | 2.3 | 55% | 36% | 18% | 9.5 | 38% | 3.8 | 62% | 22.6 | 50% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 48% |
| 6 | VPS | 22 | 33 | 41% | 1.5 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 2.3 | 59% | 41% | 27% | 7.1 | 30% | 3.4 | 50% | 21.8 | 70% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 48% |
| 7 | Lahti | 22 | 32 | 41% | 1.5 | 26 | 19 | +7 | 2.0 | 64% | 32% | 9% | 8.3 | 50% | 3.8 | 60% | 22.6 | 80% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 56% |
| 8 | Turku PS | 22 | 31 | 36% | 1.4 | 28 | 23 | +5 | 2.3 | 68% | 45% | 23% | 7.7 | 40% | 3.9 | 60% | 20.3 | 60% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 50% |
| 9 | Ilves | 22 | 25 | 32% | 1.1 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 3.2 | 77% | 64% | 50% | 8.1 | 11% | 3.0 | 56% | 18.0 | 44% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 10 | SJK | 22 | 19 | 18% | 0.9 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 2.6 | 82% | 55% | 27% | 9.0 | 57% | 3.9 | 57% | 20.4 | 57% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 50% |
| 11 | FF Jaro | 22 | 15 | 14% | 0.7 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 2.8 | 82% | 55% | 27% | 8.4 | 30% | 3.1 | 40% | 19.2 | 50% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 47% |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 22 | 14 | 14% | 0.6 | 17 | 43 | -26 | 2.7 | 86% | 45% | 23% | 10.5 | 70% | 3.0 | 64% | 21.3 | 64% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 45% |