PythiaFootballBETA
KuPS are expected to emerge victorious against VPS, with their recent form story being a draw against Universitatea Craiova in their last outing. The home side has been scoring at a rate of 1.83 goals per game at home, conceding 1 on average, particularly against weaker opponents. VPS, on the other hand, have been struggling on the road, conceding on average 1.5 goals per game against stronger opponents.
The model predicts a 50% chance of a home win, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 23% chance of an away win. KuPS are the favourite to win, with the model selecting the home win as the most likely outcome. The expected total number of goals in the match is 2.7, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring with a probability of 12.8%.
The model suggests picking Over 1.5 goals, which has a 76.5% probability of being correct, and Under 3.5 cards, with a 75.5% probability of being correct. The home win percentage is 50%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 23%.
KuPS' 3-1 win extends their run of mixed results, with the home side coming off a draw. The actual result was a home win, as predicted by the Pythia model, which correctly called KuPS to win. The model's call was correct, with a pre-match probability of 50% for a home win. KuPS was the favourite, as selected by the model, with a 50% chance of winning. The model's selection of KuPS to win hit the mark. The suggested picks also performed well, with "Over 1.5" hitting with a probability of 76.5% and "Under 3.5 cards" hitting with a probability of 75.5%. However, "Under 3.5" missed, with a probability of 71.2%.
KuPS| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 0.83 | 1.57 | 1.00 | 1.38 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.25 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.33 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 1.57 | 0.29 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 1.64 | 0.93 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.29 | 0.86 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
VPS| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.17 | 0.97 | 2.47 | 1.00 | 1.87 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 4.25 | 0.50 | 4.00 | 0.50 | 4.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.76 | 1.05 | 2.00 | 1.10 | 1.55 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 2.20 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
| VPS goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.8% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 9.8% | 13% | 6.2% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 9.0% | 9.6% | 5.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 4.9% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
KuPSVPSKuPS| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.9 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.3 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 8.8 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 19.8 | 17.7 | 22.0 |
| vs Similar (23) | 10.6 | 9.5 | 11.7 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 17.6 | 19.3 | 15.8 |
| vs Weaker (21) | 9.6 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 21.0 | 20.3 | 21.3 |
| % over line | 44% | 33% | 53% | 18% | 21% | 15% | 30% | 33% | 27% |
| % under line | 56% | 67% | 47% | 82% | 79% | 85% | 70% | 67% | 73% |
VPS| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.0 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 22.0 | 21.5 | 22.7 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 8.5 | 8.5 | - | 1.6 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 23.0 | 23.0 | - |
| vs Similar (35) | 8.9 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 22.2 | 22.2 | 22.2 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 9.7 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 20.7 | 18.0 | 26.0 |
| % over line | 53% | 50% | 57% | 16% | 17% | 15% | 65% | 60% | 71% |
| % under line | 47% | 50% | 43% | 84% | 83% | 85% | 35% | 40% | 29% |
KuPS| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.40 | 0.86 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.31 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.25 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.58 | 0.08 | 0.40 | 0.20 | 0.71 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 0.86 | 0.50 | 1.29 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+39pp vs league) | |||||
VPS| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 0.43 | 1.53 | 0.40 | 0.93 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 2.75 | 0.25 | 3.50 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.90 | 0.43 | 1.10 | 0.40 | 0.73 | 0.45 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.40 | 0.60 | 1.67 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+39pp vs league) | |||||
KuPS| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.43 | 0.71 | 0.50 | 0.88 | 0.38 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.75 | 0.42 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.86 | 0.29 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 0.79 | 0.43 | 0.71 | 0.57 | 0.86 | 0.29 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
VPS| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 0.53 | 0.93 | 0.60 | 0.93 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.50 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.86 | 0.62 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.82 | 0.55 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.80 | 0.40 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 94.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 90.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 4.5 cards | 85.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 82.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 23.5 fouls | 81.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 76.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 10.5 corners | 72.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 71.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 3.5 cards | 70.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 10/06/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 19/07/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 25/05/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 14/09/24 | H | 3-1 | |
| 22/05/24 | A | 1-3 | |
| 10/05/24 | H | 2-1 | |
| 17/09/23 | H | 0-2 |
KuPS| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 27/06/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 23/06/26 | H | 4-3 | |
| 17/06/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 13/06/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 10/06/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 30/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 26/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 23/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 20/05/26 | H | 3-0 |
VPS| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 10/07/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 04/07/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 30/06/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 27/06/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 23/06/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 17/06/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 13/06/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 10/06/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 30/05/26 | A | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | KuPS | 21 | 43 | 57% | 2.0 | 38 | 22 | +16 | 2.9 | 86% | 48% | 29% | 8.1 | 33% | 1.9 | 11% | 19.9 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 57% |
| 2 |  Inter Turku | 21 | 39 | 48% | 1.9 | 28 | 16 | +12 | 2.1 | 67% | 33% | 19% | 10.7 | 67% | 2.3 | 14% | 19.7 | 57% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 58% |
| 3 |  Gnistan | 21 | 35 | 48% | 1.7 | 35 | 28 | +7 | 3.0 | 81% | 48% | 33% | 10.1 | 57% | 3.6 | 50% | 24.2 | 71% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 44% |
| 4 |  HJK Helsinki | 21 | 34 | 48% | 1.6 | 34 | 26 | +8 | 2.9 | 71% | 57% | 29% | 7.0 | 14% | 3.0 | 43% | 18.4 | 43% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 55% |
| 5 | VPS | 21 | 33 | 43% | 1.6 | 29 | 21 | +8 | 2.4 | 62% | 43% | 29% | 7.1 | 30% | 3.4 | 50% | 21.8 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 48% |
| 6 |  AC Oulu | 21 | 33 | 48% | 1.6 | 25 | 25 | +0 | 2.4 | 57% | 38% | 19% | 9.5 | 38% | 3.8 | 62% | 22.6 | 50% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 48% |
| 7 |  Turku PS | 21 | 30 | 38% | 1.4 | 27 | 22 | +5 | 2.3 | 67% | 48% | 24% | 7.7 | 40% | 3.9 | 60% | 20.3 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 50% |
| 8 |  Lahti | 21 | 29 | 38% | 1.4 | 25 | 19 | +6 | 2.1 | 67% | 33% | 10% | 8.3 | 50% | 3.8 | 60% | 22.6 | 80% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 56% |
| 9 |  Ilves | 21 | 25 | 33% | 1.2 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 3.2 | 76% | 62% | 52% | 8.1 | 11% | 3.0 | 56% | 18.0 | 44% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 10 |  SJK | 21 | 18 | 19% | 0.9 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 2.8 | 86% | 57% | 29% | 9.0 | 57% | 3.9 | 57% | 20.4 | 57% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 50% |
| 11 |  FF Jaro | 21 | 15 | 14% | 0.7 | 18 | 42 | -24 | 2.9 | 81% | 57% | 29% | 8.4 | 30% | 3.1 | 40% | 19.2 | 50% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 47% |
| 12 |  Mariehamn | 21 | 11 | 10% | 0.5 | 15 | 43 | -28 | 2.8 | 86% | 48% | 24% | 10.5 | 70% | 3.0 | 64% | 21.3 | 64% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 45% |