PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn Result & Analysis

Date: 08/04/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 1-4
Kuressaare
Kuressaare
Vs
17%
23%
61%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Kuressaare win✗ Miss
16.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn win✓ Hit
60.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

KuressaareKuressaare

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-433D23L12L11D10W22D11D10W12L14LH·PAI09/10A·LEG14/10A·FLO22/10H·TAL29/10H·VAP06/11A·TRA12/11H·LAA07/03A·PAI15/03H·VAP19/03A·FC 02/04
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.471.501.121.211.86
vs Stronger (14)1.211.931.501.831.002.00
vs Similar (16)1.501.061.500.701.501.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-771W01L21W10W11D21W40W50W20W11DA·VAP09/10A·KAL16/10H·KUR22/10H·PAI30/10A·TAL05/11H·FC 12/11H·LAA03/03H·TRA14/03A·TAL18/03H·TAM01/04
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.570.602.560.442.570.79
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)1.500.621.750.251.251.00
vs Weaker (22)2.950.592.830.503.100.70
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.8%
Under 1.5
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.9%
Under 2.5
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
36.5%
Under 3.5
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.0%
No
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
0-2
10.0%
1-2
10.0%
0-1
8.7%
0-3
6.9%
1-3
6.8%
0-0
5.7%
2-2
5.0%
Kuressaare goals ↓
Flora Tallinn goals →
01234
05.7%8.7%10.0%6.9%3.5%
13.7%11%10.0%6.8%3.5%
22.3%4.8%5.0%3.4%1.7%
30.8%1.6%1.6%1.1%0.6%
40.2%0.4%0.4%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kuressaare goals (down), columns = Flora Tallinn goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.19
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.14
Paide
1.47
Tallinna Kalev
1.47
Kalju Nomme
1.36
Vaprus
1.33
Kuressaare
1.19
Trans Narva
1.06
Tammeka
0.82
Laagri
0.64
Viimsi
0.50
Kuressaare is 1.00 points worse than Flora Tallinn in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 2.19).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Flora Tallinn
2.06
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.86
Paide
1.39
Kalju Nomme
1.39
Tallinna Kalev
1.36
Vaprus
1.11
Tammeka
1.03
Kuressaare
1.00
Trans Narva
0.89
Laagri
0.75
Viimsi
0.50
Kuressaare is 1.06 goals worse than Flora Tallinn in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.06).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flora Tallinn
0.67
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.67
Paide
0.94
Tallinna Kalev
1.14
Kalju Nomme
1.17
Vaprus
1.19
Kuressaare
1.67
Laagri
1.69
Tammeka
1.74
Trans Narva
1.78
Viimsi
3.00
Kuressaare is 1.00 goals worse than Flora Tallinn in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 0.67).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KuressaareKuressaare

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W01L02L10W00D01L00D00D00D13LH·PAI09/10A·LEG14/10A·FLO22/10H·TAL29/10H·VAP06/11A·TRA12/11H·LAA07/03A·PAI15/03H·VAP19/03A·FC 02/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.670.690.310.571.07
vs Stronger (14)0.790.861.000.500.621.12
vs Similar (16)0.500.500.500.200.501.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W01L20W00D00D11D20W20W00D01LA·VAP09/10A·KAL16/10H·KUR22/10H·PAI30/10A·TAL05/11H·FC 12/11H·LAA03/03H·TRA14/03A·TAL18/03H·TAM01/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.201.250.311.070.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.620.250.500.250.750.25
vs Weaker (22)1.360.181.500.331.200.00
Clean sheet %80% (+53pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KuressaareKuressaare

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L22D10W01L10W21W11D10W12L01LH·PAI09/10A·LEG14/10A·FLO22/10H·TAL29/10H·VAP06/11A·TRA12/11H·LAA07/03A·PAI15/03H·VAP19/03A·FC 02/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.800.810.810.640.79
vs Stronger (14)0.431.070.501.330.380.88
vs Similar (16)1.000.561.000.501.000.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W00D01L10W11D10W20W30W20W10WA·VAP09/10A·KAL16/10H·KUR22/10H·PAI30/10A·TAL05/11H·FC 12/11H·LAA03/03H·TRA14/03A·TAL18/03H·TAM01/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.400.401.310.121.500.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.880.381.250.000.500.75
vs Weaker (22)1.590.411.330.171.900.70
Clean sheet %70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
TK (1)
€0m
Kuressaare's squad is €2m less valuable than Flora Tallinn's (€1m vs €3m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Kuressaare and Flora Tallinn have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
TK (1)
€0m
Kuressaare and Flora Tallinn have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
TK (0)
€0m
Kuressaare and Flora Tallinn have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
KUR wins
0
Draws
4
FT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn · H/A from KUR
DateH/AGameScore
22/10/22AFlora Tallinn Vs KUR2-1
31/07/22HKUR Vs Flora Tallinn2-3
17/05/22AFlora Tallinn Vs KUR4-0
12/04/22HKUR Vs Flora Tallinn0-3

KuressaareKuressaare

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/04/23AFC Levadia Tallinn Vs KUR4-1
19/03/23HKUR Vs Vaprus1-2
15/03/23APaide Vs KUR0-1
07/03/23HKUR Vs Laagri1-1
12/11/22ATrans Narva Vs KUR2-2
06/11/22HKUR Vs Vaprus1-0
29/10/22HKUR Vs Tallinna Kalev1-1
22/10/22AFlora Tallinn Vs KUR2-1
14/10/22ALegion Vs KUR3-2
09/10/22HKUR Vs Paide3-3

Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/04/23HFT Vs Tammeka1-1
18/03/23ATallinna Kalev Vs FT0-2
14/03/23HFT Vs Trans Narva5-0
03/03/23HFT Vs Laagri4-0
12/11/22HFT Vs FC Levadia Tallinn2-1
05/11/22ATallinna Kalev Vs FT1-1
30/10/22HFT Vs Paide1-0
22/10/22HFT Vs Kuressaare2-1
16/10/22AKalju Nomme Vs FT1-0
09/10/22AVaprus Vs FT1-7

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kuressaare
Kuressaare
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWLL1.35
HomeDDWDL1.55
AwayLLDWL1.15
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %35%40%30%
AVG goals2.772.802.75
Over 1.5 %72%75%70%
Over 2.5 %55%55%55%
Over 3.5 %35%30%40%
Scored1.321.501.15
Conceded1.451.301.60
BTTS60%65%55%
Clean Sheet28%30%25%
Corners---
Cards---
Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWD2.62
HomeWWWWD2.73
AwayWWLDW2.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %83%86%80%
AVG goals3.193.003.40
Over 1.5 %81%77%85%
Over 2.5 %55%45%65%
Over 3.5 %36%36%35%
Scored2.602.552.65
Conceded0.600.450.75
BTTS45%41%50%
Clean Sheet52%59%45%
Corners12.508.0017.00
Cards6.507.006.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn3679
64%
2.2
7424+50
2.7
75%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.10.7
-
2FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn3677
61%
2.1
6724+43
2.5
75%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.90.7
-
3PaidePaide3653
36%
1.5
5034+16
2.3
61%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.40.9
-
4Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev3653
39%
1.5
4941+8
2.5
86%
42%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
5Kalju NommeKalju Nomme3649
33%
1.4
5042+8
2.6
78%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.41.2
-
6VaprusVaprus3648
33%
1.3
4043-3
2.3
64%
39%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.2
-
7KuressaareKuressaare3643
33%
1.2
3660-24
2.7
81%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.01.7
-
8Trans NarvaTrans Narva3638
33%
1.1
3264-32
2.7
81%
53%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.91.8
-
9TammekaTammeka3831
16%
0.8
3966-27
2.8
82%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.7
-
10LaagriLaagri3623
14%
0.6
2761-34
2.4
75%
39%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.81.7
-
11ViimsiViimsi21
0%
0.5
16-5
3.5
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.53.0
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

← all matches