PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn Prediction & Stats

Date: 11/10/2026
Time: 13:30
Kuressaare
Kuressaare
Vs
18%
23%
59%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The model picks an away win for Flora Tallinn, a result that the odds reflect at 57%. The expected total of goals is three, with a 23% chance of exactly two goals falling in the final score. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 11.1% probability, and that is the only scoreline to be mentioned. Kuressaare, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 0.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded, while Flora Tallinn, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 2.22 goals scored and 0.89 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 at 98.7%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.5%, Under 6.5 at 96.4%, Away +2 handicap at 92.4%, Under 5.5 at 91.2%, Home under 2.5 goals at 90.4%, Away under 3.5 goals at 86.4% and Away over 0.5 goals at 85.9%. Home win stands at 20%, draw at 24%, and away win at 57%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kuressaare win
18.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn win
58.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KuressaareKuressaare

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-803L23L00D51W01L32W80W32W01L22DH·FLO02/07A·NÕM11/07H·KAL19/07H·WEL23/07A·PAI02/08H·LAA07/08A·KRI11/08A·FLO16/08A·TAM22/08H·VAP29/08
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.471.291.501.621.44
vs Stronger (15)0.671.730.621.500.712.00
vs Similar (14)2.071.211.601.602.331.00
vs Weaker (1)5.001.005.001.00--
Clean sheet %27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W12L10W02L04L23L21W13L12L32WA·KUR02/07H·NÕM17/07H·LAA02/08A·INT06/08H·INT13/08H·KUR16/08A·VAP23/08A·TAM26/08H·PAI30/08H·TAM02/09
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.601.172.881.182.231.15
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)2.731.733.602.002.001.50
vs Weaker (19)2.530.842.580.832.430.86
Clean sheet %33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.1%
Under 1.5
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.2%
Under 2.5
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.8%
Under 3.5
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.3%
No
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.5%
0-1
8.4%
1-3
6.7%
0-3
6.4%
0-0
5.6%
2-2
5.2%
Kuressaare goals ↓
Flora Tallinn goals →
01234
05.6%8.4%9.5%6.4%3.2%
13.9%11%9.9%6.7%3.4%
22.6%5.2%5.2%3.5%1.8%
30.9%1.8%1.8%1.2%0.6%
40.2%0.5%0.5%0.3%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kuressaare goals (down), columns = Flora Tallinn goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Kuressaare is 0.78 points worse than Flora Tallinn in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 1.67).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Kuressaare is 0.67 goals worse than Flora Tallinn in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.78).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Kuressaare is 0.11 goals worse than Flora Tallinn in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.56).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kuressaare or Draw
41.1%
Avg Implied -
18%
23%
59%
covers Kuressaare + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare or Flora Tallinn
76.9%
Avg Implied -
18%
23%
59%
covers Kuressaare + Flora Tallinn
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Flora Tallinn
82.0%
Avg Implied -
18%
23%
59%
covers Draw + Flora Tallinn
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5
Over
64.9%
Under
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5
Over
28.1%
Under
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5
Over
8.9%
Under
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 3.5
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5
Over
86.7%
Under
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5
Over
60.0%
Under
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5
Over
32.9%
Under
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 3.5
Over
14.7%
Under
85.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Kuressaare, so a minus line means Kuressaare give that many goals of a start and Flora Tallinn receive them. At -1, Kuressaare must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kuressaare win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kuressaare)
Kuressaare -2
1.9%
Draw -2
4.9%
Flora Tallinn +2
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kuressaare)
Kuressaare -1
6.8%
Draw -1
11.2%
Flora Tallinn +1
82.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kuressaare)
Kuressaare +1
41.1%
Draw +1
22.6%
Flora Tallinn -1
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kuressaare)
Kuressaare +2
63.6%
Draw +2
18.2%
Flora Tallinn -2
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KuressaareKuressaare

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L10W00D31W00D10W40W31W01L11DH·FLO02/07A·NÕM11/07H·KAL19/07H·WEL23/07A·PAI02/08H·LAA07/08A·KRI11/08A·FLO16/08A·TAM22/08H·VAP29/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.730.500.930.880.56
vs Stronger (15)0.330.870.120.880.570.86
vs Similar (14)0.930.570.601.001.110.33
vs Weaker (1)3.001.003.001.00--
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W02L00D01L01L13L20W11D00D21WA·KUR02/07H·NÕM17/07H·LAA02/08A·INT06/08H·INT13/08H·KUR16/08A·VAP23/08A·TAM26/08H·PAI30/08H·TAM02/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.531.240.531.080.54
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)1.180.641.600.400.830.83
vs Weaker (19)1.160.471.080.581.290.29
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KuressaareKuressaare

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L13L00D20W01L22D40W01L00D11DH·FLO02/07A·NÕM11/07H·KAL19/07H·WEL23/07A·PAI02/08H·LAA07/08A·KRI11/08A·FLO16/08A·TAM22/08H·VAP29/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.730.790.570.750.88
vs Stronger (15)0.330.870.500.620.141.14
vs Similar (14)1.140.641.000.601.220.67
vs Weaker (1)2.000.002.000.00--
Clean sheet %50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Flora Tallinn) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W10W10W01L03L10W01L02L12L11DA·KUR02/07H·NÕM17/07H·LAA02/08A·INT06/08H·INT13/08H·KUR16/08A·VAP23/08A·TAM26/08H·PAI30/08H·TAM02/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.430.631.650.651.150.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)1.551.092.001.601.170.67
vs Weaker (19)1.370.371.500.251.140.57
Clean sheet %60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flora Tallinn over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.7%-------
Home under 3.5 goals97.8%-------
Under 6.596.3%-------
Away +2 handicap93.2%-------
Home under 2.5 goals91.1%-------
Under 5.590.9%-------
Away over 0.5 goals86.7%-------
Away under 3.5 goals85.3%-------
Over 1.582.1%-------
Draw or Away82.0%-------
Away +1 handicap82.0%-------
Under 4.580.4%-------
Home or Away76.9%-------
Home under 1.5 goals71.9%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Kuressaare's squad is €2m less valuable than Flora Tallinn's (€1m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Kuressaare and Flora Tallinn have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Kuressaare and Flora Tallinn have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Kuressaare and Flora Tallinn have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
KUR wins
0
Draws
7
FT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn · H/A from KUR
DateH/AGameScore
16/08/26AFlora Tallinn Vs KUR2-3
02/07/26HKUR Vs Flora Tallinn0-3
01/11/25AFlora Tallinn Vs KUR2-0
24/08/25HKUR Vs Flora Tallinn1-2
27/05/25HKUR Vs Flora Tallinn1-3
29/03/25AFlora Tallinn Vs KUR5-0
26/10/24AFlora Tallinn Vs KUR3-0
14/09/24HKUR Vs Flora Tallinn3-4

KuressaareKuressaare

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HKUR Vs Vaprus2-2
22/08/26ATammeka Vs KUR1-0
16/08/26AFlora Tallinn Vs KUR2-3
11/08/26AKristiine JK Vs KUR0-8
07/08/26HKUR Vs Laagri3-2
02/08/26APaide Vs KUR1-0
23/07/26HKUR Vs Welco X5-1
19/07/26HKUR Vs Kalju Nomme0-0
11/07/26ANõmme United Vs KUR3-2
02/07/26HKUR Vs Flora Tallinn0-3

Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/09/26HFT Vs Tammeka3-2
30/08/26HFT Vs Paide1-2
26/08/26ATammeka Vs FT3-1
23/08/26AVaprus Vs FT1-2
16/08/26HFT Vs Kuressaare2-3
13/08/26HFT Vs Inter Club d'Escaldes0-4
06/08/26AInter Club d'Escaldes Vs FT2-0
02/08/26HFT Vs Laagri1-0
17/07/26HFT Vs Nõmme United1-2
02/07/26AKuressaare Vs FT0-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kuressaare
Kuressaare
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLD1.02
HomeLDWWD1.17
AwayLLWWL0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%33%27%
AVG goals2.962.793.12
Over 1.5 %78%83%73%
Over 2.5 %56%62%50%
Over 3.5 %30%25%35%
Scored1.301.251.35
Conceded1.661.541.77
BTTS50%58%42%
Clean Sheet22%21%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Estonia: Meistriliiga
Recent: 4 Wins / 0 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLW2.06
HomeWLLLW2.00
AwayWWLWL2.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %66%65%67%
AVG goals3.403.693.08
Over 1.5 %88%81%96%
Over 2.5 %78%73%83%
Over 3.5 %38%50%25%
Scored2.282.542.00
Conceded1.121.151.08
BTTS62%58%67%
Clean Sheet32%38%25%
Corners11.008.0014.00
Cards4.006.002.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC Levadia TallinnFC Levadia Tallinn716
71%
2.3
197+12
3.7
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.71.0
-
2Flora TallinnFlora Tallinn915
56%
1.7
1614+2
3.3
89%
89%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.81.6
-
3TammekaTammeka815
62%
1.9
1315-2
3.5
75%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.9
-
4Kalju NommeKalju Nomme814
50%
1.8
168+8
3.0
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.01.0
-
5PaidePaide714
57%
2.0
1410+4
3.4
86%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.01.4
-
6LaagriLaagri812
50%
1.5
1511+4
3.2
75%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.91.4
-
7VaprusVaprus88
25%
1.0
1315-2
3.5
88%
75%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.9
-
8KuressaareKuressaare98
22%
0.9
1015-5
2.8
56%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.11.7
-
9Trans NarvaTrans Narva87
25%
0.9
717-10
3.0
100%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.92.1
-
10Nõmme UnitedNõmme United86
25%
0.8
920-11
3.6
88%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.12.5
-
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →

← all matches