Kalju Nomme is expected to come out on top in this match, with the away win being the most likely outcome. This storyline is further supported by Kalju Nomme's recent form, having won their last two matches. However, Kuressaare's recent win against Laagri suggests they may be a force to be reckoned with.
The probabilities for the match result are: Kuressaare win 20%, draw 25%, and Kalju Nomme win 55%. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 11.9%.
Kuressaare's home form against stronger opponents has seen them average 0.75 goals scored and 2.12 goals conceded. In contrast, Kalju Nomme's away form against weaker opponents has seen them average 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 goals conceded.
The model's selection is the away win, and their other selections include Over 1.5 with a probability of 78.8%. The home win percentage is 20%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 55%.
Results analysis
In a major upset, Kuressaare's home winning streak came to an end as they were held to a 0-0 draw by Kalju Nomme, extending their away side's run of two consecutive victories. The pre-match favourite, Kalju Nomme, was the model's selection with a 55% probability of winning, but the model's call was wrong as they failed to secure the win. The model correctly predicted a draw, but not the score. The model also suggested that the match would go over 1.5 goals, but that prediction missed, with a probability of 78.8%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kuressaare win✗ Miss
19.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme win✗ Miss
55.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kuressaare
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.80
1.00
1.67
0.80
1.93
vs Stronger (18)
0.72
2.17
0.78
2.00
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (9)
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.20
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
1.00
2.00
0.50
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kalju Nomme
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.97
1.88
1.00
1.50
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.23
1.23
1.43
1.29
1.00
1.17
vs Weaker (17)
2.06
0.76
2.22
0.78
1.88
0.75
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
78.8%
Under 1.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.2%
Under 2.5
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.9%
Under 3.5
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.7%
No
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.7%
0-1
9.5%
0-0 ✓
6.9%
1-3
6.0%
0-3
5.9%
2-1
5.5%
Kuressaare goals ↓
Kalju Nomme goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
9.5%
9.7%
5.9%
2.7%
1
4.8%
12%
9.9%
6.0%
2.8%
2
3.0%
5.5%
5.0%
3.1%
1.4%
3
1.0%
1.9%
1.7%
1.0%
0.5%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kuressaare goals (down), columns = Kalju Nomme goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kalju Nomme
2.33
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.00
Flora Tallinn
1.80
Paide
1.60
Tammeka
1.50
Vaprus
1.17
Trans Narva
1.17
Nõmme United
1.00
Kuressaare
1.00
Laagri
1.00
Kuressaare is 1.33 points worse than Kalju Nomme in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.40
Kalju Nomme
2.33
Laagri
2.00
Flora Tallinn
1.80
Vaprus
1.67
Paide
1.60
Tammeka
1.25
Nõmme United
1.17
Trans Narva
1.17
Kuressaare
1.14
Kuressaare is 1.19 goals worse than Kalju Nomme in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 2.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
0.67
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Flora Tallinn
1.20
Paide
1.60
Laagri
1.67
Kuressaare
1.71
Vaprus
1.83
Trans Narva
1.83
Nõmme United
2.33
Tammeka
2.75
Kuressaare is 1.05 goals worse than Kalju Nomme in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kuressaare
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.93
0.33
1.07
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (18)
0.28
1.06
0.22
1.22
0.33
0.89
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.89
0.50
1.00
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Kalju Nomme) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kalju Nomme
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.40
0.50
0.25
0.93
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.46
0.43
0.29
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (17)
0.88
0.35
0.56
0.22
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Kuressaare) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kuressaare over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kuressaare over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kalju Nomme over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
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FC Levadia Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Paide
Vaprus
Trans Narva
Laagri
Tammeka
Nõmme United